Clinton California Campaign Manager: tightening polls a "mirage"

[Herman Munster]

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/02/MN3QUQKIG.DTL&type=politics

Despite Obama's efforts, Clinton's campaign believes it can seal a victory in California with its extensive vote-by-mail operation. A Los Angeles Times-CNN-Politico poll, released Tuesday, found that Clinton had a major edge with voters planning to vote by mail, leading 53 percent to 30 percent over Obama. She held a narrower lead, 42 percent to 34 percent, among those planning to vote in precincts.

Voters who cast their ballots by mail tend to be older and whiter and are more likely to be female - demographic groups where Clinton has shown strength.

State election officials predict that 47 percent of ballots will be cast by mail this year. Stephen Weir, president of the California Association of Clerks and Election Officials and the elections chief in Contra Costa County, said county elections officials are reporting that about 30 percent of the ballots that will be cast in Tuesday's primary are already in.

Even if the polls appear to be tightening before election day, "it's a mirage," said Ace Smith, Clinton's California campaign manager. He predicted that the first returns to be announced as polls close at 8 p.m. Tuesday - the absentee ballots - will show Clinton's advantage.

[dkf]

1. Holy cows, did you just wake up or not go to sleep yet?

You are a posting machine!

[Herman Munster]

3. I'm working insane hours right now on a major project at work

DU is my break from the drudgery.

[joshcryer]

4. DU is your break from the drudgery? OMFG, haha, your job must be a living nightmare.

:evilgrin:

[Herman Munster]

5. every job has its moments

I was going to try to have a media blackout starting saturday and just ignore the race till tuesday evening........but it hasn't worked out like I planned, lol.

[elixir]

18. Yeah, I tried that too. It didn't work for me. Here I am.

[Big Blue Marble]

26. I keep saying that too.

It worked one day only. I still do not know how you do it. You seem to be here
24 hours a day. LOL

You are very dedicated Herman, very dedicated.

[joshcryer]

2. I've seen polls with "already voted" in statistically insignificant numbers. They should poll...

...the mailers on their own, to get better numbers. 140 people don't represent all of CA.

[Tweed]

6. .

[CreekDog]

7. Then why was she in California?

for the hell of it?

c'mon. this isn't to say she won't win, but to deny that Obama is leading is reasonable, to deny that there is any tightening is plain old denial.

[elixir]

19. She's a politician. She campaigns. She's in MA today and she has a huge margin here. Don't assume

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

8. If by mirage he means

"our once thirty point lead is completely gone," than yes, the tightening in the polls is a total mirage.

[joshcryer]

9. Do you have any polls that targeted significantly absentee voters?

That one where 140 voters were polled isn't statistically significant. I would be interested in one that polled at least a thousand voters.

[cali]

10. Who knows? Ace could be right or he could be spinning.

He's her CA campaign manager. I'd take anything coming from the campaigns with a large helping of salt.

[KittyWampus]

16. Frankly, Clinton probably will win CA. I just hope O. keeps it relatively close in delegates

[elixir]

20. Is CA winner take all?

[snooper2]

24. It's by county I believe...

NT

[karynnj]

11. Only time will tell what is real - but Obama supporters need to keep this in mind:

"Even if the polls appear to be tightening before election day, "it's a mirage," said Ace Smith, Clinton's California campaign manager. He predicted that the first returns to be announced as polls close at 8 p.m. Tuesday - the absentee ballots - will show Clinton's advantage."

The first results may be disproportionately HRC, even if Obama ends up getting enough people out in CA to win. I assume that the polls are including both those who voted and those that didn't. It also seems that pollsters must be asking if people already voted - because there are estimates in the op for each. I would assume that they are considering this in their model to estimate the results. (If they have the info, they would be beyond stupid not to use it.)

[Inuca]

12. One more thing

Assuming that indeed 1.there was massive early voting; and 2.the early voters heavily favored HRC + 3. Obama looses but narrowly ==> it would confirm the momentum and the change in voters' preferences. As the results (CA and overall) are likely to be pretty close and therefore not decisive, it would bode well for the other states that are still around the corner.

Does what I just wrote make any sense? Not enough coffee yet in the system :-)...

[pampango]

14. That is an interesting scenario and not an unlikely one (though no one will know

for sure until Tuesday evening).

Hillary seems to do better in early voting, at least in Florida and, apparently, in California, while Obama, at least so far, to do better among people making up their minds later in the process.

If neither win enough delegates in the primaries and caucuses to wrap up the nomination, and it comes down to the super delegate to determine the nomination, how will they vote? Will they stay with Hillary, whom I believe most of them have indicated they will support? Acknowledge Obama's momentum if he polls better among later voters.

Either way they had better go about it carefully or either side might be madder than if they lost through the primary process.

[Inuca]

23. I was thinking of FL too in my above speculation

there was no detailed analysis AFIK, but still I think I heard that there was a very significant difference in percentages between early voting and election day.

As for the decision coming down to the superdelegates.... I refuse to even think of that....

[K Gardner]

17. It DOES make sense.. was just thinking that this morning :-) Just wish we had another

week before tomorrow. LOL.. now THAT doesn't make sense, no coffee yet but its brewing !

[Inuca]

22. Another week

that's basically what some talking head, forgot who, was saying yesterday. That it looks like if ST were on 2/12, Obama would be almost guranteed a (major) win.

[book_worm]

13. "Ace Smith"?? wasn't he on "American Idol" a couple of seasons ago?

[Avalux]

15. What else is the guy gonna say? He's being paid for this.

They know the race is very close so today will be about disinformation and trying to make California voters believe a vote for Obama will be in vain.

[jacksonian]

21. correct

mirage, my ass. Typical polspeak, folks, keep moving, nothing to see here.

[NJSecularist]

25. What the heck is he supposed to say?

"Obama is cutting into our lead. We are scared shitless."


He's not going to say that.

He's scared, but he won't say it. :)