Zogby: Tied in NJ. Obama ahead in GA (+17), MO (+5) and CA (+6)

[Perky]

Released: February 04, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Ahead of Super Tuesday, McCain Dominates Everywhere Except California; Obama Enjoys a Super Sunday

UTICA, New York – Democrat Barack Obama enjoyed a big Sunday bounce in important Democratic contests, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby telephone tracking poll shows.


In Democratic contests, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama leads rival New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in three of the four Democratic races surveyed, and the two were tied in the fourth. Though he draws strong support from black voters, he also does well among whites, and was ahead of Clinton with white voters in California.


Pollster John Zogby: "A very big single day for Obama in California (49%-32% over Clinton) and Missouri (49%-39% single day). In California, Obama has widened his lead in the north and pulled ahead in the south. He leads among Democrats and Independents, liberals and moderates, men (by 21 points),among whites, and African Americans. He holds big leads among voters who say Iraq and immigration are their top concerns. Clinton holds a big lead among Hispanics (though Obama has made some inroads), women, voters over 65, and has pulled ahead among those citing the economy.

"In Missouri, Obama leads two to one in the St. Louis region, and has solid leads with independents, voters under 50, and African Americans. He also leads among Missouri women. Clinton leads among whites and has big leads in the Kansas City and southwestern region.

"New Jersey tied in the single day as well as three-day. It is razor thin close in all regions. Obama has 12 point leads among Independents and men, while Clinton is up by 12 among women. Obama has a 25 point lead among young voters, while Clinton leads among older voters.


New Jersey - Democrats
Democrats 2/1-3 1/31-2/2

Clinton
43% 43%

Obama
43% 42%

Gravel
1% 1%

Someone else
3% 4%

Undecided
10% 10%


Obama and Clinton were dead-even in New Jersey, each with 43% each and with 10% of voters undecided. Clinton was ahead among Democratic voters, 45% to 42%, but Obama had more support from independents, with 48% of their support to Clinton’s 34%. Half of women (50%) supported the former First Lady, compared to 38% for Obama. It was almost a mirror image among men, however, with 48% supporting Obama to 35% for Clinton. This survey included 847 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 points.



Georgia - Democrats
Democrats 2/1-3
1/31-2/2

Obama
48% 48%

Clinton
31% 28%

Gravel
2% 1%

Someone else
10% 10%

Undecided
11% 13%


Obama was still well ahead in Georgia in the second tracking poll, with 48% support to Clinton’s 31% support. African-Americans, who made up half the sample, preferred the Illinois senator, giving him 67% of their support to Clinton’s 18%. Clinton attracted 43% of white support, compared to Obama’s 30%. Obama was also ahead among women, getting 47% of their backing to Clinton’s 32%. The Georgia Dems survey included 864 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.


Missouri - Democrats
Democrats 2/1-3 1/31-2/2

Obama
47% 43%

Clinton
42% 44%

Gravel
<1% 1%

Someone else
3% 3%

Undecided
9% 10%


Obama leapfrogged over Clinton in Missouri, gaining four points while she dropped two points to end the tracking period with 47% support to her 42%. Clinton continued to lead among white voters with 48% of their support to Obama’s 40%, while Obama had a four-to-one margin over Clinton with African American voters, with 72% of their support to her 18% support. The survey included 851 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/-3/4 points.


California - Democrats
Democrats 2/1-3 1/31-2/2

Obama
46% 45%

Clinton
40% 41%

Gravel
<1% <1%

Someone else
5% 6%

Undecided
9% 9%


Obama’s lead over Clinton in California grew by two points, with 46% saying they would support him, compared to 40% for Clinton. Obama had a four-point lead over Clinton among white voters, with 45% of their support to her 41% support. Black voters liked him four-to-one over Clinton (72% to 16%), while Hispanics preferred the former first lady, giving her 55% support to his 36%. The survey included 967 likely voters and carried a 3.2 point margin of error.

[Nimrod2005]

1. President Obama!

[Jensen]

4. From your mouth to God ears! GOBAMA!

[neutron]

10. BREAKING: NYT

OBAMA does not know what he is doing!
He fucked up the Nuclear Safety bill in his own district,
then Nuke interests contributed several hundred thousand dollars
to his senate campaign.

But read what our foremost economist says about his
Health Plan:

If you combine the economic analysis with these political realities, here's what I think it says: If Mrs. Clinton gets the Democratic nomination, there is some chance -- nobody knows how big -- that we'll get universal health care in the next administration. If Mr. Obama gets the nomination, it just won't happen
http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,532906,00.html

[Jensen]

15. My opinion is that we have had A Bush/Clinton to long...

It is time for NEW Blood (Change) in the White House!
The past Clinton policies opened the door of the barn wide open for China, than we got NAFTA and CAFTA instead of the health insurance that was promised.
I too, watched "Sicko" and will not forget how much money the Clinton's got for selling out and I can't nor will I forget...forgive her war vote. If President Bill Clinton had refuted GWB going to war, maybe we would not be in the mess we are in and this mess(Iraq) is personal to me with 3 nephews in the Armed Forces, 2 tours in Iraq.

I hope that with a Obama Presidency, the US and the World will begin to heal and that we can move forward with the world with US not against US!
That the divisions that we have face in this country for so long will FINALLY be over!

That said and out of the way...I will hold my nose, if Hillary gets the nomination and vote with the big D!

[sunonmars]

2. Zogby, dont make me laugh

[cali]

3. Doesn't seem like you're laughing. Seems like you're

irritated by Obama's having surged in the last month or so. And whatever you think of any given polling outfit, there's no doubt that Obama has made up a lot of ground against Hill and the formidable Clinton political machine.

[cooolandrew]

6. You're right Zogby vastly underestimated Barack in SC. Good times ahead. =)

[jefferson_dem]

5. A month ago, these numbers would have been a dream.

I love the trend in MO. That's the bellweather to watch.

LINK - http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1445

[polichick]

9. Oh-oh, don't say the "dream" word...

The "chorus of cynics" doesn't believe in it! lol

[mckeown1128]

14. a month ago!?!

try last week these numbers were a dream.

[Imagevision]

7. GOBAMA, Hell Yes We Can...!

[Dogmudgeon]

8. It's all over. Hillary is as good as defeated.

Second time in a month.

--p!

[joshcryer]

11. The undecideds in these races can still flip it either way.

What are they waiting for?

[NJSecularist]

16. This is normal for any election

Which is why I don't understand why Barack won't be in CA today or tommorow. These voters are on the edge, and they will decide by today and tommorow, and a visit to CA by Obama will help some of these voters decide. Clinton might get these swing voters because Hillary and Bill will both be there today.

[Teaser]

12. I don't get upset when I see Obama behind

So I don't think I'll get too happy when he's ahead. Fair's fair.

[angie_love]

13. So nervous and anxious

I'm not going to get excited about these numbers b/c I think Clinton will still win in CA with early voting. I just hope he gets close enough to her to tie the delegates. I just don't want to get too excited yet.

[the other one]

17. New Hampshire proved that polling doesn't mean anything

Didn't it?

Zogby is always right, except he wasn't in New Hampshire, at least about Clinton and Obama. Oddly enough, he was right on about everyone else.

I am afraid that polling means nothing anymore.

[usregimechange]

18. Kick

[book_worm]

19. I'm cautiously optimistic