A theory on polls: Poll/Information lag

[CreekDog]

We all watch polls looking for instantaneous reactions to whatever's in the latest news cycles. People who are highly informed that are polled will reflect the latest developments, but that doesn't constitute most people.

Think about an issue you don't pay attention to, but that is in the news. When does it finally dawn on you what's going on? Usually takes days, maybe a week and eventually you are clued in. Here and there, 10 seconds of information about Britney Spears and within two weeks, you will have assembled the basic facts of what's going on even without paying attention. In politics that is how it is for a large segment of voters.

Thus, the cry in New Hampshire may not have swung things towards Hillary after all. Bill Clinton's campaigning in Nevada was not markedly different than in South Carolina, however, it didn't get widespread exposure and didn't sink in until South Carolina. Hillary won Nevada, I would argue in part because voters were not uniformly informed about the change in tactics. I'm not judging those tactics here, except to say that they backfired (fairly or not).

Remember Swift Boating? Did Kerry's numbers drop right away? No, it takes time for it to work.

Sometimes in the instant information environment we are in, we forget that most people are just now reacting to news that was available a week or two ago.

Poll lag folks.

[Dogmudgeon]

1. There is no lag for Obama

Because there is nearly real criticism of Obama. There is nothing to react to, so all movement will be up, up, up.

This should scare Obama. If he is being annointed as our new Messiah, that would be bad. But if this is just the calm before the storm, all this gloating is going to turn into paranoia and despair.

I strongly suspect that the press is gaming the primaries to sell ads. I am certain that the nature of the primary will be changed radically on Wednesday morning. And it may not be pleasant for Team-O.

Of course, I am a partisan and a Hillary-bot and a cynic and a destroyer of Hope. But the wonk in me wants to raise the shark attack warnings. I know what the response will be.

Today, Mr. Rofl; later, the proverbial bunker in Idaho.

--p!