For what it's worth tweety just gave his opinion

[catagory5]

On Scarborough Country. He seems to think there is an Obama fever, but that Clinton's have a ground machine that is gonna be very tough to overcome and also that the Latino vote is just not swaying to Obama any. Joe also said something about the absentee voters in Cali and that it is a huge advantage for Clinton. The other guy a minute later states that these polls lately do not include Absentee voters opinions??.......

Hopefully they are right.

[cali]

1. Someone told me that Matthews said, long ago, that no

insurgent has ever successfully overcome the establishment candidate. He's always thought that Clinton would win big. He may be right. I just don't know.

[CreekDog]

5. Insurgent candidates win in California

Gary Hart won in 1984 (beat Mondale)
Kennedy won in 1980 (beat Carter)
Jerry Brown nearly won in 1992 (lost to Clinton by 4 points in June when it was almost decided)

[Renew Deal]

7. One of my friends thinks Obama can win CA for this reason.

We'll see.

[NJSecularist]

2. Tweety's opinion isn't worth much

He also ignores Obama's national ground game, which may even be better than Hillary.

[catagory5]

3. yeah I have to admit

Biggest suprise of the Primaries so far is how organized and effective the Obama ground game has been. Well, that is my opinion. (although I hate to admit it)

[angie_love]

4. This is why I have my doubts over Obama winning CA

I don't know why they wouldn't include absentee voters in the sample though. That seems odd.

[flpoljunkie]

6. CA Field poll says Obama leads in early voting 32% to 31%.Zogby says he's improving with Hispanics.

Pollster John Zogby: "A very big single day for Obama in California (49%-32% over Clinton) and Missouri (49%-39% single day). In California, Obama has widened his lead in the north and pulled ahead in the south. He leads among Democrats and Independents, liberals and moderates, men (by 21 points),among whites, and African Americans. He holds big leads among voters who say Iraq and immigration are their top concerns. Clinton holds a big lead among Hispanics (though Obama has made some inroads), women, voters over 65, and has pulled ahead among those citing the economy.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1445