By all polls, Obama is still surging...will it hold for Tuesday or will this be NH Redux?

[sfam]

If so, Hillary is gonna need to do something to pull a rabbit out of the hat today. Regardless of who you support, do you think Obama will catch up to win out on the delegates awarded?

Also, who wins California? Obama looks like he's closing, and is even ahead in some polls, but I'm not sure I see Obama winning there (and I'm an Obama supporter).

[Little Star]

1. Seems like the Dem establishment is trying to pick our choice

by these timed endorsements. I am not buying. They sound just like MSM, picking our candidate for us. I will not be influenced by any of them! I will make up my own mind on the issues. TYVM.

[NoBorders]

2. Yes, I worry about the NH redux

Polls were so wrong, and it all depends on who turns out to vote. I think Hil has an advantage with traditionally reliable voters. It will be close either way and probably won't settle anything. OTOH, if Obama winds CA outright, and wins the next few states, which is within reason, he could pull it out.

[sfam]

3. I agree, CA is the bellweather for both Obama and Clinton...

If Obama's close there, chances are he's done well everywhere. If he wins, I really believe this race may be over.

That said, I agree with your traditionally reliable voters comment. I think Hillary wins CA by at least 5, and probably does well enough in New York and other states to be no worse than 50 delegates down for the day. Probably most people still believe that Clinton still ends up a bit from the day though.

If so, the question then is whether Hillary stops the momentum or whether Obama continues to increase.


EDIT: and likewise, if Hillary takes CA by more than 10 points, my guess is she's well over 100 delegates up for the day.

[KittyWampus]

4. very fair assessment. I really can't imagine O. winning CA. but can imagine staying

within 10 points and keeping delegate split 40-60% Hillary's favor.

Not bad outcome for next phase, IMO.

[sfam]

5. Are you talking about a 40-60 split for CA or overall?

'Cause if its overall, I think Hillary might have the nomination. And really, 60% of California's delegates would be a pretty big win for her there.