Obama now up 46-40 Over Clinton in CA, Buh-bye Hillary!

[Dems Will Win]

Obama’s lead over Clinton in California grew by two points, with 46% saying they would support him, compared to 40% for Clinton. Obama had a four-point lead over Clinton among white voters, with 45% of their support to her 41% support. Black voters liked him four-to-one over Clinton (72% to 16%), while Hispanics preferred the former first lady, giving her 55% support to his 36%. The survey included 967 likely voters and carried a 3.2 point margin of error.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1445

[racaulk]

1. Still within the margin of error.

I wouldn't count Hillary out just yet.

[KittyWampus]

12. It's hard to imagine her not winning CA. Just by a lesser margin. We'll see.

[pampango]

18. The early voters should give her a comfortable margin regardless of current polling.

It will be interesting to see how it turns out and what the delegate split ends up being.

It will also be interesting to see how early voting evolves over the next few election cycles. It is a convenience for many people, but it effectively means that people vote before they are much exposed to the different candidates and their messages.

[NoBorders]

28. Actually, no. MOE is 3.2%

Unless I missed something.

"The survey included 967 likely voters and carried a 3.2 point margin of error."

I nonetheless agree it will be close with advantage to Clinton for being able to turn out traditional voters.

[racaulk]

36. The MOE is read as +/-.

Meaning that the results could be off by +3.2% or -3.2%.

Since the results are 46% Obama to 40% Clinton, consindering the MOE could mean that it's 49.2% Obama to 36.8% Clinton, or it could be 42.8% Obama to 43.2% Clinton. Or it could be anywhere in between.

I just took issue with the OP stating that this poll means the end of Hillary in CA...the whole "Buh Bye Hillary" remark. The results, statistically speaking of course, say no such thing. But it will be interesting to see how the vote turns out there. :hi:

[NoBorders]

38. Duh

You're right. Thanks.

:dunce:

[book_worm]

2. Let's not count our chickens before they are hatched!

[russian33]

3. yeah, Zogby was right on the money in NH too...

..oh wait

[TexasObserver]

4. he's trending UP, she's trending DOWN, all over

I am dubious of the precision of polls, but they are useful generally identifying trends. There can be no doubt, Obama is making a strong move, and may be winning Super Tuesday.

[Bullet1987]

7. There are too many

conflicting polls coming out of CA. Zogby is either right on the money (which I HOPE he is) or he's dead wrong. He's been one of the more consistent pollsters this election year, so I'll put more stock in his predictions that say ARG which should never show it's numbers again.

[Colobo]

8. I'm really hoping he's got this one right!

[TexasObserver]

39. as a general proposition, I respect Zogby more than others

ARG, Rassmussen, Gallup, Pew ... all been known to scuff the ball to make it bob and weave

[loveangelc]

5. lets not get ahead of ourselves. but things are looking up...

[papau]

6. Obama playing the race card worked to get him near 80% of the black vote - as it did

when he played it in Ill in 04 and won with the black vote plus the Daley machine.

The official media line - now that they admit that Clinton did nothing to justify the claim she was dissing anything of interest to the black community - is that Obama has solidified the ethnic vote.

"Obama has solidified the ethnic vote" - actually that phrase was put out by the Obama camp - and immediately rebroadcast over and over this weekend by the corporate media.

[sfam]

14. Nope, this had nothing to do with Bill Clinton and the other surrogates, right?

Puleeeze. Hillary's campaign made the bet that if they polarized the black vote that they'd get the white vote. Bottom line, it doesn't look like a good bet in retrospect.

[papau]

31. get real - nothing the Clinton's did was "race card" - MLK tears were Obama's over nothing

[sfam]

35. Um, OK...you can believe that if you like, but then how come Bill is...

apologizing for it? CLEARLY the Clinton surrogates made a series of racially charged attacks. Believe it was all gaffs if you like, but I tend to think her campaign is pretty tightly run.

[davsand]

16. "...he played it in Ill in 04 and won with the black vote..."

WTF? I sure don't remember that happening here. As I recall, he ran against Alan Keyes in that election because the IL GOP outed Jack Ryan's sex club stuff in that Primary. Had jack to do with race.




Laura

[papau]

30. try the primary

[davsand]

40. You mean the one where he lost most of downstate to Hynes?

How, EXACTLY, do you feel that Obama used his race in that contest? Obama and Hynes were the two that had the endorsements, and frankly speaking, Hynes pretty much took downstate excluding just a couple counties. Obama carried population centers (like Cook and the collar counties) and his vote margin was enough to trump the downstate voters. Numerically, Hynes carried more counties, but Obama registered a higher vote total due to the counties he did carry.

Not to put too fine of a point on it, but we were at ground zero and we were there to see it. We LIVE in Illinois. I see by your profile that you do not.


Have a nice day.



Laura

[EffieBlack]

25. Yawn . . .

When the facts are on your side, pound on the facts
When the law is on your side, pound on the law
When neither is on your side, pound on the table
---- Old Lawyers' Saying

And when all else fails, accuse Obama of playing the race card

Yawn . . .

[Dogmudgeon]

9. Yep, it's in the bag now

Take a victory lap -- you truly ARE the better team!

NOTHING can stop Barack Obama. Not even green Kryptonite.

:patriot:

--p!

[Dems Will Win]

11. I am! We're even up to 39% in NY and winning CT and MO

Thanks!

[mtnsnake]

10. Famous last words of the New England Patriots

"Buh-bye Giants" :evilgrin:

[Dems Will Win]

15. Guess you're right -- she could get her extra large hankie out

but fooled me once...

Tears won;t work this time and that's all she's got left. Oh and her Hallmark infomercial...

[sfam]

13. As an Obama supporter, I say don't get your hopes up...Hillary will win CA

She has the early voting and a huge hispanic advantage. She will win.

If she doesn't her candidacy is over, but truly, I'm not seeing anyone predict this. Obama would have to be ahead by at least 10 points tomorrow to even have a chance of pulliing it out.

Bottom line, if Obama can come within 5-10 points of Hillary in CA, it will be a very good day.

[snooper2]

17. If Hillary doesn't win by over 100 delegates she's toast...

If it comes down to states like Texas on March 4th, Obama wins big....

6 months ago I saw a poll for Texas showing Edwards 44, Obama 26, Clinton 18....Everyone I know who was for Edwards was/is also 100% against Hillary INC.

[Bullet1987]

27. I think people are putting too much stock into the early voting

based on what happened in Florida. People, INDEPENDENTS CAN VOTE in CA!! Who's to say that ALL of the early voters were Democrats?

[sfam]

29. I really do believe Hillary wins CA...early voting is probably senior citizens...

who can't get to the polls. Again, it would be great if Obama wins, I just don't see it. If he does, the race is over. Personally, I think its a 5-12 point difference. The closer it is to 5 points, than Obama looks great going forward.

[Thrill]

19. wow just wow.......She was up by 20 there....Anything less than an 8 point win

for Hillary, is a failure

[Dems Will Win]

21. Her campaign has collapsed in the face of Obama's 5,000 precinct captains

CA has 20,000 precincts

[RoadRage]

20. Hillary WILL WIN CA..

Sad, I want Obama to take that state SO BADLY.. but the truth of the matter is this:

People started sending in their Absentee Ballots weeks ago - and this was before Obama had time to campaign. He doesn't have the luxury of being the "established" candidate where people just vote on his name recognition.

So, he will lose CA, but hopefully by less then 10%, because many people cast their votes for Hillary before they even gave Obama a second look. I have a feeling that there are a few people in that state that are wishing they could get their mail back, but that is not the case.

[Colobo]

23. She'll win it by 4% pts or so.

[RoadRage]

37. yup.. and with the delegates, as long as he does well elsewhere - shouldn't hurt to badly! NT

[Medusa]

22. James Carvelle is already delivering the Clinton talking points

how losing California doesn't mean she's out of the race blah blah blah blah. Those internals must look mighty damn bad or they wouldn't be out there in force lowering expectations.

[sfam]

33. Carvelle was pretty honest, bluntly so on MTP yesterday...he said..

that it will be REALLY bad for Hillary if she loses CA. He pretty much implied that if she loses CA, the race is over.

[suston96]

24. Oh, finally, Hillary is behind....just like in New Hampshire.....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html

Poll Date Sample Obama Clinton Edwards Richardson Spread

Final Results - - 36.4 39.0 16.9 4.6 Clinton +2.6
RCP Average 01/05 - 01/07 - 38.3 30.0 18.3 5.7 Obama +8.3

[BeyondGeography]

26. We're all encouraged on the Obama side, but cockiness only gives me a NH flashback

Let's not fall into that trap again.

[NoBorders]

32. keep feet on ground

I'm not going through NH again.

[thoughtcrime1984]

43. Hillary's going to win easily

I've been told that more than a few times, so it must be so!

[bigtree]

34. MSNBC McClatchy has Hillary out front by a comfortable margin

California is hard to poll, but you can't discount the almost 50% who voted early when talking about momentum or late closing.

[Dems Will Win]

41. Kick

[elixir]

42. Why do we continue to refer to Zomby's polls? He was wrong in NH and clearly favors BO.

Check this out, Hillary's still in the lead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html