Updated Fat Tuesday predictions (Obama close enough to win 20 contests)

[Perky]

Well reasoned predictions for Super Tuesday

EVERYONE should keep this in mind before overly prognosticating future results five John Edwards withdrawal from the race,

The rules for apportionment of Delegates are based on percentage of vote at the Congressional District level


1. If you do not get 15% in CD you get nothing (both candidate will meet this threshold each and every time)
2. If you get between 15% and 40% you get a pro-rata portion (that is going to be very rare in a two person race)
3. If two candidates get over 40% they split the delegates evenly (This is going to happen nearly all the time)
4. If you get more than 59% you get bonus Delegates. (my suspicion is that Obama has a leg up here in Urban areas and (as evidenced by SC) areas of the deep south)

Not all districts have the same number of delegates within the state. Apparently the DNC allots according to Dem votes in the last presidential election. The state then allots to the Congressional Districts based on how blue the district went in the last election. It thus stands to reason that urban districts are going to have slightly greater quantities with in a state when compared to non-urban. So if both Obama and Clinton get over 40%, he would stand to get the extra delegate if the total quantity of delegates is an odd number.... Otherwise they are likely to split the delegates nearly every time.

In analyzing the Polling data here is how I think it is going to shake out In terms of Delegates NOT in terms of Popular Vote

Solid Wins for Clinton

Tennessee
Arkansas
Oklahoma

Solid Wins for Obama

Idaho
Georgia
Alabama
Illinois
Kansas
North Dakota
Utah


Marginal wins for Clinton

New York (she is leading in statewide polls...but the District Density and recent media endorsements in Metro New York area favor Obama in terms of Delegates.)

Marginal wins for Obama

California
Minnesota
New Mexico
Colorado

Toss-ups Where Clinton has Momentum but too late to make a real delegate difference

None


Toss-ups Where Obama has Momentum but too late to make a real delegate difference The PV could go the other way but the Delegate count will break a little bit for Obama.

New Jersey
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Missouri
Arizona


Not enough Data to make a call


Delaware
American Samoa
Democrats Abroad
Alaska


Overall, I think Obama is going to increase his Delegate lead among (voted delegates) because he is going win far bigger in Illinois then Clinton is going win in NY. The larger delegate count in NY is probably offset by the number of smaller states that Hillary is not seriously contesting (Kansas, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota) Everything else pretty much washes out to a tie.

On the PV side Obama is going to get 54% nationally on super Tuesday.

The real victory is going to be "momentum" because the pundit discussion is going to focus a lot on how much Obama caught up.

[NJSecularist]

1. I disagree about Minnesota...

There is little to no data for that state, you should put that state in the neutral column. Nobody really knows what's going to happen there..

Delaware will likely go to Obama.

[Perky]

6. U of MN had it tied

but it is a cauceus statge... Obama invoked Wellstone at a packef Target Center and he has the organization in place to win it.

My rule is that if the last poll has it even and it is a cuacus state... Obama should win.

What is Delaware based on?

[NJSecularist]

8. Delaware is based on the fact that Obama's ground game is top-notch there

Hillary has essentially ignored the state, Obama brought 20,000 to a DE rally yesterday.

I would expect him to win that state by a wide margin...

[Perky]

12. See I have read the same thing about Obama's Organization in MN

[NJSecularist]

14. But Minnesota is a state that Hillary has contested

She has spent a few days there campaigning. It's an important state for her.

As far as I know, Hillary hasn't stepped foot in Delaware for a while.

[Colobo]

2. I'm starting to think we are going to win...

[CoffeeCat]

3. I would agree with this analyisis...

I think Obama will be the obvious winner tomorrow.

The publicity and momentum going forward will propel him to the nomination.

The Super Delegates will fall in line. Yes, the Clintons are working the phones
on those people, night and day--but most of those relationships are political, and
not rich in depth or loyalty. If Obama is the frontrunner, he'll easily garner
those delegates.

When DC insiders--big and small--see that the Clintons might lose their power, the
Clinton leverage will melt like ice cream in the sun.

[GoldieAZ49]

5. on the news this morning they were talking about the surprising resentment

toward Clintons for arm twisting to get superdelegates, and that is why many are not committing. They are watching the massive turnout Obama rallies are having and realizing where the voters interest is.

[Perky]

9. I think there willbe a flood after tomorrow...largely because they are

lloking at coattails and the easiest path to victory for themselves in the fall. They are also witing for the McCain coronation to occur.

[GoldieAZ49]

22. that is what they said on MSNBC...

the superdelegates would start committing to candidates Wednesday

They may not even be finished counting CA on Wednesday tho!!

[GoldieAZ49]

4. Interesting take thanks for the breakdown n/t

[K Gardner]

7. One factor to consider: The Weather! It is HORRIBLE here in the South..

that tends to ensure older voters stay home, younger voters get out. May not make much of a difference, but it will make some.

[Perky]

10. It also depresses turn out among black women

Its a hair thing apparently. ANd there is a good bit of data to support that... Particularly in Georgia.

[NJSecularist]

11. You are going to need a link to support your claims

[snooper2]

20. That's just a stupid fucking comment

If someone is interested and plans to vote either way, they are going to show up to make their voice heard. Worry about hair because of rain, sheesh...

[Perky]

23. I worked on campaigns in Georgia

Congressional campaigns. Gubernatorial campaigns. A few yeara ago the Democratic Governor was expected to win against a country bumpking named SOnny Perdue. It rained in Atlanta on election day. Black turnout was down 15% and Perdue won the election.

The loss was attributed to the rain by in state analysts. I really am not making it up.

[Perky]

31. .

[Bullet1987]

15. I disagree on...

Massachusetts being a toss up. The last poll I saw there still had Clinton with a double-digit lead. And what are you basing Alabama on as a Clear victory for Obama?

Other than that, I agree with your argument. But I'm not getting my hopes up...NH was too big of a loss for me to ever do that again.

[nancyharris]

18. Not based on any poll - but what I see/hear around me

Obama will win Massachusetts.

[Perky]

21. On MA

Heis closing out to day with a big Boston Rally


I a, sure Kerrey,Kennedy and Patrck will be there. It will get big press in the eveing and I think thatwill be enough to move the undecideds.

[nancyharris]

25. Where is the Boston rally? eom

[Perky]

27. Not Sure...But I would think it would be at Fleet

barackobama.com

[Perky]

19. On Alabama I think that AA voters are being undersampled

Survey USA HAS IT TIED.

[Dems Will Win]

13. You missed the KSL poll for UT, O 53, H 29

So put UT as solid Obama...

[Perky]

16. Thank just put that into the Solid win Category.

[Bullet1987]

17. Perky...look at post #15

[Perky]

24. I responded at #15

[Perky]

29. kick

[madrchsod]

26. illinois is going to be close

it`s coming down to who can get the voters to the polls in northern illinois tomorrow. big crappy storm coming in. the last tribune poll had 20% undecided

[Perky]

28. You are dreaming....

most polls in Illinois have Obama above 50% One said 60.

Pollster Dates N/Pop Clinton Edwards Obama Undecided
Tribune/WGN 1/30-31/08 500 LV 24 - 55 20
ARG 1/30-31/08 600 LV 40 - 51 8
Rasmussen 1/29/2008 631 LV 24 - 60 2
Post-Dispatch/ Research 2000 1/21-24/08 500 LV 22 15 51 10

[Perky]

30. kick

[TornadoTN]

32. I'm not too sure Tennessee is a solid win for Clinton

I think she'll win, but I don't believe it will be substantial. Obama has been polling very well here and with the turnout being the way it has been, he'll close even closer. Factor in Memphis, Nashville, and Chattanooga and he'll take away a good chunk of the delegates we have to offer. He was polling a close second in the West and Central part of the state previous to Edwards dropping out and was third in Eastern Tennessee. In Eastern TN he has catapulted to a near tie with Clinton and that can only bode well for his campaign.

[Perky]

33. That is the tink people don't seem to grasp

Delegates are won at the congressional district level. You would think that the more urban disticts woulf favor Obama, (he did very well in rural areas of Iowa, Nee Hampshire and Nevada) State wide Popular votes are meaningless.