Hillary with 12% lead in California early voting, 34% of expected total vote is already in

[Herman Munster]

What this means is that Obama will have to win precincts on election day in California by at least 6-7% just to tie Hillary. Anything less and Hillary still wins based on her early vote advantage.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5fb08a99-97a2-4e13-a586-d2ed83c3ceea

[The Delegates]

1. Everyone, say it with me

The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.
The Democratic Primaries are NOT winner take all.

[REDFISHBLUEFISH]

2. Precincts are!

[mckeown1128]

25. No.

They divide up the delegates of Congressional districts per the vote in that district. If a CD has 4 delegates and the vote in that CD is HRC 55 O 45 then they both get 4 delagates.

[krkaufman]

32. 4 or 2? 4 / 2 = 2. Right? n/t

[mckeown1128]

39. yes 2.....lol

sorry I didn't double check what I wrote. :dunce:

[BootinUp]

69. They should probably change that after this election. nt

[elixir]

73. Hillary has a 12% lead! Hillary has a 12% lead! Hillary has a 12% lead! Hillary has a 12% lead!

Hillary has a 12% lead!
Hillary has a 12% lead!
Hillary has a 12% lead!
Hillary has a 12% lead!
Hillary has a 12% lead!
Hillary has a 12% lead!
Hillary has a 12% lead!
Hillary has a 12% lead!
Hillary has a 12% lead!
Hillary has a 12% lead!
Hillary has a 12% lead!
Hillary has a 12% lead!
Hillary has a 12% lead!
Hillary has a 12% lead!
Hillary has a 12% lead!
Hillary has a 12% lead!
Hillary has a 12% lead!

[BeyondGeography]

3. Sounds doable

[Thrill]

4. Anything less than an 8% win for Hillary, is a failure for her.

[krkaufman]

34. The figure I've heard is 8.7% : )

It'll be a spin & expectations game.

[KittyWampus]

5. so she has to rely on votes from people who mostly never got a chance to hear Obama

[in_cog_ni_to]

9. LOL...a vote is a vote is a vote.

Hillary is going to win!:woohoo:

[KittyWampus]

15. yes, you are right. She will win CA.

[jenmito]

11. Exactly. I started a thread talking about just that yesterday!

She is the past in every way.

[in_cog_ni_to]

13. Boo Hoo.

:cry:

[jenmito]

23. "Boo hoo" that Hillary's the past and is losing her lead?

[in_cog_ni_to]

76. Not going to happen. I hate to tell you, Obama is going to lose.

Sorry, but he is.

[Straight Shooter]

31. You bet she's the past. Retro is in. Nostalgia is hip. It's cool. It's tie-dye and all that.

And if that doesn't please you, check out the words of the great William Faulkner:

"The past is not dead. In fact, it's not even past."

[jenmito]

38. Retro may be in but Hillary's not.

[Straight Shooter]

40. Yes, she is.

But I admire your dedication to not believing that.

[jenmito]

46. Then why is her camp counting on early voting for the win in CA?

She's slipping and he's rising every day.

[Straight Shooter]

49. I won't answer for her camp. Personally, I'm not relying on anything at all.

It's been a rollercoaster so far; why should anything change now?

[jenmito]

54. It doesn't really matter what you're relying on. n/t

[tritsofme]

14. I didn't realize Obama only got in the race a few weeks ago.

nt

[KittyWampus]

17. the race narrowed down only a few weeks ago. A few weeks ago, I rooted for Biden

[rodeodance]

got more excuses?? this one went PUFF

[rodeodance]

18. just another little obamababy whining again--

[KittyWampus]

27. whining? OBAMABABY? Actually, unless YOUR "girl" wins by a large margin, she's toast

[jenmito]

29. Those early voters recognized the Clinton name-not the Obama name.

[rodeodance]

36. excuses, excuses--pile em high!!

[jenmito]

48. The only thing piling high is Obama's poll numbers!

[rodeodance]

64. ~YES SHE CAN, YES WE CAN~~

[Lucinda]

44. It's been a while, but I'm pretty sure California still gets television service.

[Lucinda]

22. California has television. They get the news. Most of the people in this county will vote

without ever meeting or seeing a candidate in person.

[jenmito]

42. Then you might remember back when Obama was being called "naive" and a "rookie."

[Lucinda]

47. He's straight out of Chicago politics. The last thing I'd ever call him is naive.

[jenmito]

52. You're obviously not in the MSM. That was the storyline back then.

[Lucinda]

58. That was thousands of hours of coverage ago.

And several debates later too. If you really don't think people are informed, you must be expecting Obama to crash tomorrow.

[jenmito]

62. You'd be surprised at how many people are not informed when they vote. Some people see the Clinton

name and say that's the one for them.

[flordehinojos]

or maybe those who did hear him ... and decided hillary rings true!

[rodeodance]

33. LOL

[jenmito]

57. You forgot the "sarcasm" thingy.

[MonkeyFunk]

61. Never got a chance to hear him?

He's been running for a year.

[jenmito]

63. My doctor didn't even know Obama spoke out against the war before the war. n/t

[MonkeyFunk]

66. regardless of how politically unaware your doctor is

Obama's been running for a year. People in California know who he is.

[jenmito]

72. I doubt it. n/t

[elixir]

74. I'm sure they've heard enough hope and change to make a decision for Hillary.

[Andromeda]

75. Everybody has heard from Obama by now...

I just wish he'd go away.

[Kermitt Gribble]

77. Why is that?

Californians have their miracle ears shut off for the past year? This campaign's been going on for more than the past few weeks.

[LVjinx]

80. Or people who need more specific details than Obama has provided

I think it will be very very close. But I think she will ultimately win in CA. Whether that equates into a delegate advantage remains to be seen... They may split the haul pretty evenly.

[Thrill]

6. Just heard on AA that Obama could win more Delegates in California

even if Hillary has more votes. Because of how they distribute with the districts

The interview is with a Political Reporter in California

[Nitrogenica]

7. How are you helping us defeat John McCain by posting this?

[JackORoses]

8. but, but, the Hillarites said Mail-In Ballots would be 50% of the votes

Now it is only a third?

That's bad news for Hillary.

[Herman Munster]

26. they will be around 50%

Many people like to deliver their absentee ballots to the polling place on election day.

[mckeown1128]

37. those delivering theres on election day would

reflect the current polling that is favorable to Obama. HRC advantage in absentee ballots are in those that were sent in a long time ago. The people who wouldn't change their mind because they already sent theirs in. The people dropping theirs off tomorrow will reflect the current polling.

[Uben]

10. Dammit! Where's Miss Cleo when you need her?

Whoever she endorses is bound to be the winner!

Speaking of that, how come we never hear from all these psychics during the primaries?

(other than the ones here, of course)

[in_cog_ni_to]

12. YAY! Go, Hillary!!!! n/t

[rodeodance]

16. ~ALL FIRED-UP FOR THE LADY~~YES SHE CAN, YES WE CAN~

[Thrill]

20. Can't even make up your own slogans. Much like Hillary

You steal material from Obama and Edwards

[rodeodance]

30. Obamacampers stole the YES WE CAN from the United Farm Workers-know your History before spouting off

[Jai4WKC08]

55. Actually, it's a strength to be able to use good ideas no matter where they come from

It's a sign of maturity. ;)

[Tellurian]

68. Actually, it's a: "If you can't beat em, Copy em".. strategy!

[REDFISHBLUEFISH]

24. YES SHE IS! YES SHE IS!

Can implies possibility IS states a fact!

[psychopomp]

86. Depends on what the meaning of "is" is

;-)

[BootinUp]

50. GoMama!

[depakid]

19. Sometimes I wonder what it's going to take before people stop bantering around

all these bogus polls like they were gospel....

Looking stupid and being proven wrong over and over is apparently not enough.

[Sensitivity]

21. That's why Obama is not in CA. Early vote States will go to Hillary because

of name recognition and establishment endorsements early on.

That is how it is.

[TomClash]

28. One pertinent question

Why do you think the Field Poll, which is a California based organization and had early voting even between Barack and Hillary, is less reliable than SurveyUSA?

[Herman Munster]

41. the field poll didn't technically poll early voters who have voted already

they polled early voters and people who "intend" to vote early. Also, the poll was done over an 8 day time period and had a very high undecided response.

[TomClash]

70. Same with Survery USA

Same methodology. Be fair.

[Xithras]

35. There's an interesting difference between Hillary and Obama voters in there (Rethug meddling).

Aside from the fact that women voters are dispropotionatly voting for her.

Hillary voters, according to that poll, seem to place the economy, health care, and immigration(!) as their top priorities. Hillary voters also apparently support the draft, oppose same-sex marriage, think the US is winning the war on terrorism, and a stunning 70% listed George Bush as one of the greatest presidents in history.

Obama voters rank the environment and Iraq as their top priorities. Guess that explains why I'm leaning Obama.

Or then again, maybe it just goes to show that the poll is junk and rates PREFERENCE, not actual votes factored by the respondants party affiliation. If you look at those numbers, you'll see that they include 70% of Republicans, who apparently prefer Hillary to Obama. That puts these numbers about three points east of useless.

If you break it down by party affiliation, Clinton has a 14 point lead among Democrats while Obama has a 12 point lead among Independents (roughly 10% of the voters in California). Without knowing the actual numbers for each party, it's hard to really tell how useful these numbers are.

But then again, that's how these polls work.

[pampango]

43. The tightening polls don't change any votes already cast.

Hard to see how Obama wins but it will be interesting to see how close it gets tomorrow.

[NJSecularist]

45. This is only this one particular survey

22% of the votes are absentee ballots, for both Republicans and Democrats.

34% is just not an accurate number.

[krkaufman]

51. As expected. Final results should be interesting...

... especially vote trends.

Super Tuesday will be a win for Obama if he isn't knocked-out or severely disabled. All trends point to Obama momentum, so the longer the campaign goes, the better the odds for Obama. Obama just needs to stay close on Tuesday to take the race into the following primaries, and he apparently already has the money to keep going.

[Summerza]

53. Releasing early voting results is ILLEGAL and Survey USA should be reprimanded

Releasing voting results OR EXIT POLLS, which are much like official results in that it closely approximate them, is illegal, and Survey USA is playing with fire by doing this.

[NJSecularist]

56. These are not exit polls

These are just the author's guesses.

[Summerza]

59. The OP categorically asserts that Clinton leads by 12%

Doesn't sound like a guess to me.
Or maybe you are right, and the OP wanted to exaggerate, as it usually happens in DU.

[NJSecularist]

60. It's a Survey USA poll

Polls don't categorically know anything. They poll about 500 people, while California's voting electorate is in the millions.

[Inuca]

71. The OP is misleading

and/or does not know what he is talking about. OTOH it is probably true that the early voting (heavily?) favors Clinton.

[thevoiceofreason]

65. And how many folks without land lines were polled?

That's right. ZERO. Who supports the BIG O? That's right, folks without land lines. Survey USA sucks in 2008.

[BootinUp]

67. People without land lines dont vote, they are nomads. lol

[TheDonkey]

78. You hear it California. No reason to vote tomorrow. sHillbots have already declated victory

so much for that

[LordJFT]

79. you're just trying to cover up your disappointment from this poll

http://www.c-span.org/pdf/zogby/Super_Tues_020408.pdf

[stevenleser]

81. Survey USA's results are outliers in virtually every state.

Just check Realclearpolitics.com

[thevoiceofreason]

82. I don't like going to that site

Is it true? The SUSA numbers seemed so odd. How did they perform in Iowa, NH and SC? I have to be ale to defend this debate against my best friend.

[stevenleser]

83. They massively underestimated Obamas SC win

They did not have a poll in NH or Iowa, but in SC, they had:

PollDate Sample Obama Clinton Edwards Spread
SurveyUSA 01/23 - 01/24 553 LV 43 30 24 Obama +13.0

Final results were:
Poll Date Sample Obama Clinton Edwards Spread
Final Results - - 55.4 26.5 17.6 Obama +28.9

-----------------------------
More convincingly, look at polling data for Massachusetts right now.
Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Spread

SurveyUSA 02/02 - 02/03 651 LV 56 39 Clinton +17.0
Suffolk/WHDH 02/01 - 02/03 400 LV 44 46 Obama +2.0
Rasmussen 01/28 - 01/28 1023 LV 43 37 Clinton +6.0

and Missouri

SurveyUSA 02/02 - 02/03 671 LV 54 43 Clinton +11.0
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 02/01 - 02/03 851 LV 42 47 Obama +5.0
Mason-Dixon 01/30 - 02/01 400 LV 47 41 Clinton +6.0


To me, it seems like SurveyUSA is exaggerating Clinton's strength by anywhere from 10% to 16% vs other polls

[mrreowwr_kittty]

84. 12%? I thought she was supposed to be 25% ahead in early voting.

BTW the primary is proportional so one can win the pop. vote and the other can get more delegates.

Just like NV.

[Tellurian]

85. exactly..nm