RealPolitics latest polling info

[Samantha]

Please take a look and when you have formed a conclusion as to what this reflects, post your comments here.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Sam

PS I have been studying this for the last ten minutes. I am not posting right now my thoughts; I want to see how many of you might come up with the same conclusion and how many do not.

[Nimrod2005]

1. I studied it, the trend is Obama's friend! He will CRUSH her tomorrow if these 2 things happen:

1) Just like recent voting, all late deciders broke in favor of Obama
2) All (big majority) of independents voted for Obama

[ananda]

2. It's bs.

There is a concerted MSM effort to keep
McCain controlled. They don't like him.

However, I think that McCain will win
the nomination.. and that whoever runs
against him will have to face the full
force of the huge, manipulative corporate
and MSM juggernaut.

[REDFISHBLUEFISH]

3. Tuesday, February 05 How are they posting tommorows numbers today?

[Cant trust em]

5. through effective use of the Flux Capacitor n/t

[Samantha]

6. I did notice that and asked myself that same question

I have no answer unless it is that RealPolitics polls one days and broadcasts the results the next day; and then restarts the cycle. Perhaps someone here who religiously goes to this site can tell us.

Sam

[Samantha]

4. Thank you both for responding

I am hoping a few more people take the time to study this and post their comments. It would be very interesting if we could get a number of people who support different candidates chewing on these polls and posting their thoughts.

Sam

[Little Star]

7. I just added the Feb.4th (todays) spread and

I came up with:

Clinton: 178 spread
Obama: 145 spread

33 is a pretty thin spread.

[Samantha]

8. Thank you - do you have any overall thoughts when you look

at the scope of the variance among the polls?

Sam

[Samantha]

11. I am thinking I will be watching the returns live tomorrow minute by

minute, and it is only with they come in, will I know what state went for whom. Your analysis seems to suggest the same. Thanks for taking the time to review those polls. I am wondering how many will do the same, or prefer to simply see what they want to see, hear what they want to hear, and have a rude awakening tomorrow.

Sam

[libbygurl]

9. Just considering the state polls:

Clinton consistently leads in NY, NJ and one poll each for OK, MS, OH and MS.

Obama consistently leads in GA, and one poll for IL.


Up for grabs:

AL - C 48 O 44 AEA/Capital Survey
C 47 O 49 Survey USA
C 45 O 44 Insider Advantage

(looks like dead heat)


MA - C 56 O 39 Strategic Vision
C 44 O 46 Suffolk/WHDH

(???)

CA - C 53 O 41 Survey USA
C 40 O 46 Reuters/CSpan/Zogby

(???)

As for the Dem Nom polls - two polls each give advantage to both Clinton and Obama, and two more polls have them at virtual statistical tie.

I wonder if there are so many Undecideds out there who keep the numbers in a state of flux.

And that Feb. 5 poll numbers I just ignored (to be published tomorrow?).

Interesting. Tomorrow may not be decisive, it seems.

[Samantha]

10. Very interesting - you actually took some time to process the

information for yourself. But had you chosen to do so, you could have taken one selective poll for California and spun either way here, to support the candidate of your choice. In that way, you could have spun the data to suit your own personal purposes. Kudos to you, you did not, as others have. Looking at just California, a Hillary supporter could promote the Survey USA poll alleging Clinton will take it. Conversely, an Obama supporter could have selected the Reuters/C-Span Zogby poll and done exactly the same.

I went to this site because my head was spinning from the disinformation here. Once I actually studied the polls line by line, I came away with the conclusion you did, that tomorrow may not be decisive. Looks like anything can happen here.

From now on when I reach a state of confusion from the conflicting info posted on this forum, I will check in at RealPolitics at chew the data myself. It's a good lesson for us all, don't you think, while passions are running high here.

Thank you so much for responding.

Sam

[libbygurl]

13. You're welcome. I'm sick and tired of so many conflicting polls on DU and elsewhere...

...that I decided to figure out what the trend was, if any, among a number of different polls. I WISH I could show a consistent lead for the candidate I support, but why fool myself?

I think we'll just have to wait till tomorrow's results come out, and then it's likely to be non-decisive, as you and I have concluded based on these numbers.

Thank you for posting this, too!

[Samantha]

15. You and I both learned the same lesson here tonight

and the experts Olbermann is featuring as you and I are discussing this seem to be saying the same thing. Even the experts have California up for grabs and seem to be suggesting anything can happen. They do all agree with this one item, however; Clinton has been in California for a long, long time. It would be very surprising if Obama could overtake her tomorrow. Should an upset happen, it will be very serious for her.

I am wondering what Mark Penn's private polls show tonight. He will never tell.

Sam

[suston96]

12. Try this RCP chart of the New Hampshire election and see what it says.....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html

Poll Date Sample Obama Clinton Edwards Richardson Spread

Final Results - - 36.4 39.0 16.9 4.6 Clinton +2.6
RCP Average 01/05 - 01/07 - 38.3 30.0 18.3 5.7 Obama +8.3

Suffolk/WHDH 01/06 - 01/07 500 LV 39 34 15 4 Obama +5.0
American Res. Group 01/06 - 01/07 600 LV 40 31 20 4 Obama +9.0
ReutersC-Span/Zogby 01/05 - 01/07 862 LV 42 29 17 5 Obama +13.0
Rasmussen 01/05 - 01/07 1774 LV 37 30 19 8 Obama +7.0
CNN/WMUR/UNH 01/05 - 01/06 599 LV 39 30 16 7 Obama +9.0
Marist 01/05 - 01/06 636 LV 36 28 22 7 Obama +8.0
CBS News 01/05 - 01/06 323 LV 35 28 19 5 Obama

Notice that Obama led in ALL polls listed. If you scroll further, he led even more polls.

Compare the final results with the final average.

[Samantha]

14. You got me

I have a very difficult time reading this type of data when it is not in tables. However, I made an honest effort to look at it line for line and see if I could respond to you. It was not easy.

However, looks like (and I am a word person, not a number person) you are correct when you say Obama led in all polls listed. Looking at the summary above on the RCP average he did pull 8.3 plus over Clinton. The Final Results do clearly say Clinton plus 2.6. The only thing I can guess is that she had a last minute surge from the undecideds (there is no column listing those numbers); or a great more people showed up than the pollsters were prepared to see; or there was a technical glitch.

I am sure if you respond with the definitive answer, most people here will be extremely interested (except, of course, those with a great deal of numerical acumen than I have - they probably know).

Thank you. You are helping to make us all think.

Sam

[suston96]

16. Yeah, I wish I could do a regular table but I provided a link to the original chart.

Look at the two lines in bold in my post and that would really strike the difference in the collected pollster averages and the actual results.

The thing that mystifies me is that they, the pollsters and their disciples, were all wrong! And people were running around gleefully sipping champagne.....well, maybe.

We sat down to the TV and expected an Obama blow-out but as we watched the totals posting on the grid, Hillary never fell behind. It was incredible.

Polls are ok to maybe, I say just maybe provide a trend but I would never bet my last taco on any pollster. New Hampshire cured me of that.

[Samantha]

17. All the experts talking tonight seem to be in agreement

No one knows what will happen tomorrow. We will just have to stand by (as Keith Olbermann says) and listen to the returns as they come in.

It is good to have a myriad of polls just the same, because the conflict therein suggests to us don't get our hopes up too much one way or another, and certainly do not listen to those here giving us data taken out of context.

So color me clued in that anything can happen.

Sam