Final Zogby Poll: Obama up 13 in California!!!

[TeamJordan23]

Obama, Romney lead in California on Super Tuesday

Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama surged to a big lead over Hillary Clinton in California hours before "Super Tuesday" voting began in 24 states, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.

In the Republican race, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney held a 7-point advantage on Arizona Sen. John McCain in California, while McCain added to commanding double-digit leads in New York and New Jersey.

On a sprawling day of coast-to-coast voting, the biggest ever in a U.S. primary race, the U.S. presidential contenders in both parties were fighting to win a huge cache of delegates to this summer's nominating conventions.

In California, which alone provides more than one-fifth of the Democratic delegates needed for the nomination, Obama led Clinton by 49 percent to 36 percent, the poll found. The margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.

Clinton pulled into a 5-point lead in New Jersey, 46 percent to 41 percent, after being tied on Monday. Obama held a 45 percent to 42 percent edge on Clinton in Missouri. Both polls had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

Obama had a 20-point edge in Georgia, aided by a more than 3-to-1 lead among black voters.

Obama, an Illinois senator, and Clinton, a New York senator, are in a hard-fought battle for the Democratic presidential nomination and split the first four significant contests.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080205/ts_nm/usa_politics_poll_dc_1

[Drunken Irishman]

1. I'm sick...oh God I want to believe, but I can't.

[Whisp]

18. me too! omg I think of NH.

!!!!

[IndieLeft]

23. That's because it's not true.

Sorry to disappoint, but that doesn't take in account for all of the early voting. 2 million+ requested early absentee ballots, 1 million have been turned in.

So while I would love to believe this poll, I just can't.

[Drunken Irishman]

46. Yes it does. Zogby added early voting to the final results.

[IndieLeft]

59. Really? DK was reporting they didn't count them.

Hey, I'll take it.

[Drunken Irishman]

63. I will too...

[caligirl]

58. i would not put my eggs on this one. REMEMBER New Hampshire everyone!!!! Get to work for Obama!!!

[BeyondGeography]

2. Fatal, if true

[AtomicKitten]

98. Know this: Obama IS momentum.

He has a real shot at the title.

Yes, we can.

[BeyondGeography]

105. Happy Super Tuesday, Kitten

I'm feelin' it, too.

[AtomicKitten]

113. Same to you, BG.

Cheers.

[Azathoth]

3. Holy sweet Jesus, please let it be true

:bounce: :bounce:

[Seen the light]

4. HOLY FUCKING SHIT!

AIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

[Bucky]

117. Before you count chickens, remember that Cali has had LOTS of absentee voting

The more people who voted early, back when Clinton dominated the state's preferences, the less important pre-election day polls will mean. Of course huge turn outs may yet swamp the absentee votes.

I'll down grade my pessimism to cautious optimism. I still this this is her race to win.

[meow mix]

5. nice

:D

[CTLawGuy]

6. there are other polls showing him down

esp survey USA. They are the most pro-Hillary.

[Colobo]

7. YEAH! MO-MEN-TUM!!!

[woolldog]

8. How

How can this be true?

All the local TV stations in California were quoting the SurveryUSA poll which has Hillary with a huge lead. That pissed me off b/c I think people watching those stations may be under the impression HRC is going to win and so either not vote or vote for her b/c they want to vote for a winner. Grrrr.

[Azathoth]

10. SUSA is way off from all the other polls in nearly every state

Either they're completely out to lunch, or they're the only sane one and every single other pollster is out to lunch. I'm betting on the former.

[ErnestoG]

12. They are gonna try that. Impression = reality.

[Indenturedebtor]

14. Or galvanize people to go to the polls

Lets see how this turns out. Either way he's not walking from CA empty handed ;)

[Bullet1987]

49. Because the smart money is on Hillary to win CA...

which could make a loss of this proportion that much more damaging.

[BenDavid]

9. Wave a twenty in front of him and he will give you a good poll

[AX10]

84. Polls come so cheap from him.

For 20 bucks, I can get a poll from Zogby that gives me, AX10 an 80% approval rating!

[HughMoran]

11. Polls are psychotic - final Survey USA has Hillary up 12 in California

[Drunken Irishman]

16. I discussed this comparing these polls to Florida.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4399914&mesg_id=4399914

The Florida polls were all over the place, too. Zogby was almost dead on.

[HughMoran]

24. I guess we'll see tomorrow

I wasn't passing judgment, though everyone is so defensive around here every post is seen as an attack!

[Drunken Irishman]

39. I know you weren't, was just showing you...

It seems this happened in Florida as well.

[IndieLeft]

40. And what is that supposed to mean? You Freeper!

LMAO! just joking!!!!!!

You are absolutely right!

[HughMoran]

54. growl!

:hi:

[IndieLeft]

57. Do you have any idea how many times I've been called that?

And I always come out supporting dem candidate, and using a dem site as my source.

[Colobo]

17. Zogby has seen consistent movement in Obama's side.

It's not a crazy poll... it's a trend.

[HughMoran]

21. Polls taken at the same time shows a trend?

Your post makes no sense at all.

[Colobo]

38. I'm talking about Zogby's polls during the last 4 days or so.

Tell me how that doesn't make sense.

[HughMoran]

50. You are comparing apples to oranges

But I can see this is going nowhere as we aren't actually disagreeing about anything, so carry on :hi:

[Bucky]

118. Dont' put much faith in SurveyUSA--they have a crappy methodology

It's robo-surveying (according to their faq page), so they often get skewed sampling.

[RL3AO]

13. I guess Obama might actually have a shot.

I thought it would be a 4 or 5 point win for Clinton considering the number votes already mailed in.

[woolldog]

22. If there's

a huge voter turnout tommorrow, it may dilute the effect of the absentee ballots. Also don't forget some of the absentees are republicans.

[Egnever]

15. Please let him be right

please please please!

[Tarheel_Dem]

19. can one be skeptical & optimistic at the same time?

this is great news if true. Could Maria Shriver's endorsement have benefited Obama this much? And wouldn't these new numbers have to mean a huge shift in the hispanic vote? I'm flummoxed...LOL

[TeamJordan23]

45. I am both also. nm

[MadBadger]

20. I hope Clinton's slight MO in NJ is because of a Superbowl effect in fertile Giants territory.

[Azathoth]

56. If Obama comes within 5 points of her in Jersey, it's a victory n/t

[TexasObserver]

the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

25. the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

26. the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

27. the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

28. the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

29. the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

30. the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

31. the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

32. the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[Tweed]

52. Your posts would have been funny if this one right here were flipped to "AWAY FROM OBAMA"

and vice-versa.

[IndieLeft]

61. lol

[TexasObserver]

66. notice they all are timed at the same time

my screen went haywire and kept flashing the same message, like on a loop or something

I had to shut down and reboot, and when I got back, this is what I found on the board.

[IsItJustMe]

116. Damn!!!! Do you studder?

[TexasObserver]

33. the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

34. the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

35. the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[TexasObserver]

the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[BeyondGeography]

53. What'd you say?

[caligirl]

60. DITTO

[TexasObserver]

67. I repeat myself, but not intentionally!

I've never had this happen on any message board. Weird.

[BeyondGeography]

73. Never seen it before either

happens to the best of us.

[Renew Deal]

106. It's what happens when you hit "post message" over and over.

Quickly

[tishaLA]

I don't believe it for a second.

IF Sen Obama wins--IF he wins--it will be a narrow victory.

[Colobo]

41. A win is a win. Let's hope he makes it.

[tishaLA]

48. I don't wanna jinx it.

So hush up! :P

[TexasObserver]

36. the trend is definitely breaking FOR Obama, away from Clinton

[MadBadger]

37. Think somebody is a little excited.

[meow mix]

43. lol :D

i dont blame im

[IndieLeft]

44. Uh yeah... That's one way to get your post total up there.

[HughMoran]

42. I've been posting all night that Obama will take 12-14 states - including California

The people who put their money on this are showing Obama with 13/22 now -> http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/rasmussen_markets_democratic_presidential_primaries

[MadBadger]

47. I agree with you. I think Obama ultimately wins Super Tuesday.

Her win in NY will be too small.

[Colobo]

51. Let's HOPE!

[MadBadger]

55. Katz, I think NJ isnt going in Clinton's direction either

I really think that the Super Bowl has affected those numbers. Central and northern Jersey is fertile Giants territory, in fact, the Giants play in Northern Jersey.

[Leopolds Ghost]

107. Um... can you explain this? What do the Giants have to do with the primaries.

[IndieLeft]

62. Can you imagine how deflated all the Hillary supporters will be if he does?

I mean, she is "Mrs. Inevitable"
She is expected to win, and WAS expected to win big.
I would have to come on here just to see them spin how it isn't over till it's over...

[Tweed]

65. The polls for TX, OH, and PA would be rolled out and kicked and kicked

Just like all the Super Tuesday polls were after SC. It's like Baghdad Bob has been hired to edit a full staff of DU Clinton posters.

[TexasObserver]

64. How weird was that? I posted one time.

[still_one]

68. I wouldn't assume anything about California, too many variables

Here is another variable which is occurring down in Southern California

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x496744



California will be determined by the independents, undecided, and young

Unfortunately, this will continue beyond Tuesday I believe

[flyarm]

69. Final SurveyUSA Poll in CA

Final SurveyUSA Poll in CA
SurveyUSA has a final California poll out including calls from Monday night. The tally: Clinton 52%, Obama 42%.

--Josh Marshall

[NJSecularist]

70. Great

That means Obama will win CA. :)

[MadBadger]

71. Whats Survey USA' track record so far?

[HughMoran]

72. Huh, I just noticed that

I wonder why their polls are not following the others?

[loveangelc]

74. no fucking way! omg...

[bridgit]

75. That's right, either way...California will show you how it's done I can't wait for tomorrow...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/03/shriver.obama/index.html?eref=rss_topstories :bounce:

[GoldieAZ49]

76. cautiously optimistic! on the early ballots

those are mostly older females, they would be for Hillary anyway

I like the high undecided count, those will probably break for Obama, you either for or against Hillary and have been for a long time, nothing undecided there!

The polls that count the most start in 4 hours!!!

[Tatiana]

77. I think this is misleading. More like things are in a dead heat.

I don't think this takes into account the early ballots cast, where Clinton was the clear favorite.

[bridgit]

79. That's true, and I've heard Zogby mention that he uses a rather small sample by comparision...

between 700-800 respondents; and data from less than random sources, which generates a somewhat crude snap-shot...everything else out here looks tighter than 13 points for either of them

[Azathoth]

80. Zogby's sample size is the largest of any CA poll

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/california-primary.html

[bridgit]

83. Is this what you're referring to: Sample - 967 LV? Dude that's dinky...

That's not that much more than what is considered base 'scientific'. We've run tracking polls running up to previous prim's & GE's of between 1,200 & 1,500 & believe me all these numbers are percolating as we key these things..."It ain't over till it's over."

The more respondents the more detail, that's just the way it is. You should work on a CHIS survey, 10's of thousands of respondents in a state as large as this one with extensive LOQ's and not just thumbs up/thumbs down this one/that one

But hey, believe what you want; tomorrow is not just another day

[Azathoth]

87. *chuckle* I'm comparing it to all the other polls coming out of CA

I don't think I've seen a single CA poll with a sample size over 1000. Hell, the vaunted (so I'm told) Field poll only had a sample of 511. I'm not holding Zogby to an objective "scientific" standard and I can't speak to his sampling methodology.

[bridgit]

92. No doubt, Field wasn't even on your list; though are you aware...

that at your site you posted it actually shows Clinton up by +12? At the second largest sample: SurveyUSA 02/02 - 02/03 853 LV 53 41 Clinton +12.0 :shrug:

And Obama up +6 in the Reuters/CSpan/Zogby component: Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 02/01 - 02/03 967 LV 40 46 Obama +6.0 ; but that Clinton being up overall? And just outside the spread? :shrug:

The thing with Field is that they are so respected out here for the timely quality of the data they deliver. Their respondent base will quite nearly cancel a tennis lesson to be involved in a Field Poll again :shrug:

Peace & all the best to you & yours, it's going to be a barn-burner either way :patriot:

[ShadowLiberal]

78. I'm an Obama supporter, and I find that VERY hard to believe

Sorry but I'm just buying it that Obama wins by double digits in California, same with Hillary. I would be very surprised if either of them could pull off a win by more then 5% of the vote, but I think it'll be like within 3% of each other.

The polls are just all over the place right now, there's no consistency in some places, at RealClearPolitics I saw in national polls three polls all taken the same days listed with very different results. One with Hillary up by like 10, one with Obama up by like 8, and one with them tied.

[Raine]

81. PLEASE let it be true

I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

[meow mix]

82. lots of obama support around socal.

easy to see him winning here at least..

[MadBadger]

85. That sounds good because his CA base is in The Bay Area.

[loveangelc]

86. interesting...I thought Clinton's stronghold was SoCal and Obama's was the San Francisco Bay area...

[meow mix]

89. at least in already known voters...

i guess im mostly speaking of his trendy star-power thing that is going on, cause he's on fire here with the people.

wether or not theyll actually vote is another matter lol.

[TLM]

88. I'm a CA early voter....

I was on the fence, but I went for Obama... every time I've watched them in the debates, Clinton has come off to me as fake and calculating while Obama has seemed to be more straight forward and more genuine. I think they'd both alienate many voters in the GE, but I think the people that hate black folks so much that they won't vote for Obama, would never vote for Clinton anyway. Whereas I think a lot the folks who do not like Hillary enough to vote for her, would probably vote for Obama.

I don't particularly like Hillary nor dislike her... which after all is exactly the goal of her triangulation style of politics. The thing is I'm a dem... and I don't find her at all inspirational... the word that comes to mind is tolerable. But listening to Obama, I do feel hopeful and inspired. Not a lot... but way more than with Hillary.

What worries me is that Hillary is going to inspire republicans... and moderates who just don't like her, to turn out in droves. Talk about red meat for the rabid right. She makes a much better target because the right wing hate machine can run all day and night firing off attacks at the hated Hillary, and it would just be par for the course. Attacks on Hillary would be widely accepted... whereas I think attacks against Obama, would boil down to race. That would be the red meat for the right, the fact he's a black guy. And those sorts of attacks would be more difficult to use with moderates and indi voters, without the attacks being easily dismissed as racist.

In short, I think race baiting about Obama will be way less effective on the middle of the road voters, than Hillary bashing would be. They'd be more open to attacks on Hillary then to the attacks on Obama's race.

Anyway... that's what really clinched it for me.

Good luck to Obama

[JCMach1]

90. What is Zogby smoking... I mean sampling these days

McCain is not likely up by 7 on McCain. That would be shocking. As for the Dems... that is an outlier poll...

[Leopolds Ghost]

108. That would indeed be shocking :-)

[MagsDem]

91. Yeah right

And tomorrow is the day you find out Zogby is full of shit. :)

[angie_love]

93. you mean just like you are?

[LadyVT]

94. today's SurveyUSA poll has Clinton way ahead in California

Weekend polls are notoriously unreliable...especially those on Superbowl Sunday!

[MadBadger]

96. Well, I would assume Super Bowl Sunday polls would be pro-Clinton

[Cleita]

95. Not a vote has been counted yet so how can you say

whose on top? These damn polls take all the anticipation out of casting your vote. I believe they keep people home because they figure there's no need to vote because there candidate has lost even before the first vote is counted.

Our election system has to be the crappiest in the world.

[HopeforChange]

97. GO OBAMA !!!!!!!!! !!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!

http://www.reuters.com/news/pictures/articleslideshow?articleId=USN0345866120080205&channelName=politicsNews#a=1

[Apollo11]

99. There should be no polls allowed during the primaries

I hope this poll doesn't make anyone think that their vote won't matter.

[Sensitivity]

100. Why is SUSA poll results so different. Is Zogby the "Interactive" poll?

[Kahuna]

104. No. It is a telephone survey...

http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1273

Snip:
Released: February 05, 2008
Survey Methodology


Survey Methodology 2/3/08 - 2/4/08

Zogby International was commissioned by to conduct a telephone survey of .

[workinclasszero]

101. Please let it be true...

Obama is sweeping the nation!!!:woohoo:

He wins my poll today: 2 votes cast for President Obama!! (in a couple of hours...coffee first)lol

[Nimrod2005]

102. I trust Zogby, but this is AMAZING...Too good!

[Perry Logan]

103. We've got the barf bags ready for you. In case Zogby is wrong again.

[awaysidetraveler]

110. Zogby's been the most accurate so far, given the contenders. This is great news.

[Cleita]

114. What is going on with Zogby? I participate in polls for them all

the time but I was never polled for this and I am a California voter.

[Occam Bandage]

109. ...

[tritsofme]

111. Why does Zogby keep embarrassing himself with polls like these?

nt

[stevietheman]

112. That's quite a powerful last-minute surge!

I'm excited for our next President of the United States, Barack Obama!!!

[HughMoran]

115. see

here it is