Statewide Popular Vote is somewhat meaningless

[Perky]

The rules for apportionment of Delegates are based on percentage of vote at the Congressional District level not at the state level.


1. If you do not get 15% in CD you get nothing (both candidate will meet this threshold each and every time)
2. If you get between 15% and 40% you get a pro-rata portion (that is going to be very rare in a two person race)
3. If two candidates get over 40% they split the delegates evenly (This is going to happen nearly all the time)
4. If you get more than 59% you get bonus Delegates. (my suspicion is that Obama has a leg up here in Urban areas and (as evidenced by SC) areas of the deep south)

Not all districts have the same number of delegates within the state.

Apparently the DNC allots according to Dem votes in the last presidential election. The state then allots to the Congressional Districts based on how blue the district went in the last election.

The Odd delegate rule: If both Obama and Clinton get over 40%, it stands to reason that they are likely to split the delegates nearly every time except when the total allotted delegates is an odd number) The spare delegate foes to the one who wines the district

One note: Urban districts are going to have slightly greater quantities within a state when compared to non-urban districts because they tend to be bluer. This favors Obama to some degree. But when the more urban district has an odd number of alloted delgates this is where he might see some daylight at the end of the night

With that caveat you have to figure that spare delegates overall will probably be a wash.

There are some delegates awarded at the state level based on the PV (about 1/2 og the Congressional level apportionments.


State District-level State Level

Alabama 34 18
Alaska 8 5
American Samoa 3
Arizona 37 19
Arkansas 22 13
California 241 129
Colorado 36 17
Connecticut 33 17
Delaware 10 5
Democrats Abroad 7
Georgia 57 30
Idaho 12 6
Illinois 100 53
Kansas 21 11
Massachusetts 61 32
Minnesota 47 25
Missouri 47 25
New Jersey 70 37
New Mexico 17 12
New York 151 81
North Dakota 8 5
Oklahoma 25 13
Tennessee 44 24
Utah 15 8

[geek tragedy]

1. Untrue.

Some delegates are awarded on the basis of statewide vote.

[Perky]

2. Really?

I have not read that anywhere.

[geek tragedy]

5. Yep.

For instance, New York:

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/NY.html

"New York Democrats have a total of 281 delegates, 151 of whom are allocated proportionally based on the results of the Feb. 5 primary within each Congressional district. In addition, 81 delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote. The remaining 49 delegates are unpledged."

[mohc]

7. Same for all states actually

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008">Democratic Primaries 2008

The columns for At-Large and PLEO delegates are selected by state wide proportional voting.

[LiberalFighter]

6. At-Large delegates

[mohc]

3. As close as this may be...

Clinton and Obama may come close to splitting both states won, delegates won, and even popular vote. Things will be especially muddied if both of them can win at least one of those categories each. Is anyone else worried that Super Tuesday "victory" will be determined largely by spin and the echo chamber that is the MSM?

[ISUGRADIA]

4. Statewide vote determines the apportionment of at-large delegates

From the CA plan:

"At-large delegate and alternate positions shall be allocated among presidential preferences according to the statewide primary vote."

[Perky]

10. I corrected the OP. Anypone know if the allocation of Statewides is done the same way as it is

at the Distict level?

the 15% threshold?
the 40-60 rule?

Both would suggest that this would be a wash sice both candidates are likelyt to get 40% statewide

[Zynx]

19. I'm pretty sure that statewide is proportional without any special thresholds.

[NoPasaran]

8. Each state has its own delegate plan

Some states have at-large delegates, others do not. Here's a useful breakdown for the Super Tuesday states.

[pampango]

12. Wow, I didn't realize that every ST state elects 10-20% uncommitted delegates today.

Is that in addition to the superdelegates that everyone is already counting?

If so, it will be even harder for either of these evenly matched candidates to amass a majority going into the convention, what with superdelegates, uncommitted, Michigan, Florida and Edwards' delegates.

[MaineDem]

13. I don't think uncommitted delegates are elected today

In fact, I don't think uncommitted delegates are elected at all. Unless "uncommitted" is an option in that state.

I think the "superdelegates" are the uncommitteds.

[pampango]

14. That makes sense. So, for instance, in California today they are electing 370 delegates not 441?

I wasn't sure looking at the NYT link.

[MaineDem]

15. That's my understanding. n/t

[no name no slogan]

17. If Uncommitted polls above 15% in any CD, there are uncommitted delegates

And depending on the rules for the state, there may also be uncommitted delegates coming from the state conventions, too.

There's usually a smattering of uncommitted delegates elected each year, but in the past when the nominee has been known before the convention, they usually don't matter much. This year may be different, depending on how today goes.

[NoPasaran]

20. That's my read as well

"Uncommitted" or "Unpledged" include the superdelegates.

[tritsofme]

9. However if Clinton continues to edge out Obama in state-wide contests

With Obama maintaining relative delegate parity, super-delegates would probably tend to break toward Hillary if she does in fact win significantly more votes.

[Perky]

11. Not what I am hearing

Super Delgate fall into two camps

one there are party members and they are elected officials

There are rublilng that the partypfficial arfe adamant that MI and FL not be seated and Hillary's move on FLorida has hacke thmne off.


I also have three friends who work on Capitol Hill.. ... There is apparently s atrong Anti Billary sentiment among Congresspeople and Senators up for re-election. They are very worries about voter resitance to Bill being back in the white hous and how it might effect their own races in the fall

[tritsofme]

16. If Hillary has substantially more votes, I think there would be a backlash

If superdelegates threw the nomination to Obama.

I just don't see it happening.

[Zynx]

18. Neither candidate wants to be arguing the technocrat position.

"Well, because of fucked up rules I got more delegates while my opponent got more votes." Do you remember which party you are in?