Showing Two Different Trends: Analysis of Zogby and SUSA Polls

[Bullet1987]

Zogby and SUSA (Survey USA) are the two most polar opposite polls coming out of not just CA, but a lot of other states as well. It seems both are following two separate trends. Zogby is showing an Obama blowout, and SUSA is showing a Clinton blowout. Who is more right? Will both be wrong and the winner only comes out with a 5 point lead or less (which would favor polls that have shown it MUCH closer than the two extremes)?

I will say this though, even though I'm not getting my hopes up about Obama winning by 13%, I CAN understand Zogby's trajectory. Over the past week, Zogby and other polls have shown Obama gaining a point or two a day. Obama has had momentum really since South Carolina where he blew out Clinton by 28%. Then the debate came, and that's when SUSA began showing a post-debate bump for Hillary Clinton. Not to say she didn't get a bump, but then I saw them giving her a 9-point boost after one day! That is when I began to get a little skeptical of their results. I mean, Hillary Clinton did good...but that is a gaffe-level boost and Obama didn't commit any major mistakes and most anaylsts called it even. So where exactly is SUSA getting their results? Where is this elusive Clinton momentum that they're picking up on...but no one else seems to be? It can't be Florida, because prior to the debate...most polls were calling it a dead heat. It wasn't until after the debate that she's recieved this inexplicable jump in SUSA's polls.

It's not to say though that I totally believe Zogby either. In the past couple of days, they've shown Obama making huge jumps and most other polls haven't. But like I said, I can understand their trajectory more and where it came from. Obama is the one with the wind at his back and gaining momentum.

Who is right? In 24 hours we will know for sure.