Very interesting exit polling. Shows you just how close it is

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http://www.exit-poll.net/pbtn.html



Polling Place Photo Project
By Tom Webster on February 4, 2008 5:02 PM | Permalink
The New York Times has posted a project online called the Polling Place Photo Project, billed as "a nationwide experiment in citizen journalism that encourages voters to capture, post and share photographs of this year’s primaries, caucuses and general election." I can't wait to see the photos roll in--this will be especially interesting for the primary I am most curious about on Super Tuesday (and one that we obviously won't be exit polling), the Democrats Abroad primary, which takes place in 33 countries all over the world tomorrow. So while I am locked in a phone-less, wifi-less, airless room tomorrow staring at Super Tuesday data, I can imagine I am in Stockholm, at Tullys Coffee (Götgatan 42, T-Medborgarplatsen) doing my bit for democracy.

(Tip of the hat to Daring Fireball for pointing me to this.)


Where will the Edwards Supporters Go?
By Tom Webster on February 4, 2008 4:10 PM | Permalink
There has been a lot of speculation about which camp Edwards' supporters will migrate to, and I thought it would be useful to take a look at the recent South Carolina data to see if there were any clues from the exit polls. We asked a number of questions of the voters regarding their opinions of the other candidates just to see if there were any polarities and also to provide data for just this sort of question--once hypothetical, now very real for the supporters of John Edwards. Here are some of the notable datapoints amongst South Carolina Primary participants who voted for Edwards:



Regardless of how you voted today, how would you feel if Hillary Clinton wins the election?
Response Percentage
Very Satisfied 20%
Somewhat Satisfied 42%
Somewhat Dissatisfied 21%
Very Dissatisfied 18%


Regardless of how you voted today, how would you feel if Barack Obama wins the election?
Response Percentage
Very Satisfied 22%
Somewhat Satisfied 38%
Somewhat Dissatisfied 24%
Very Dissatisfied 16%


No real clues there. Let's try a different tactic:

Regardless of how you voted today, which candidate stands the best chance of defeating the Republicans on Election Day?
Response Percentage
Clinton 20%
Obama 20%


Regardless of how you voted today, which candidate would make the best commander in chief?
Response Percentage
Clinton 15%
Obama 6%


Regardless of how you voted today, which candidate would be the best choice to unite the country?
Response Percentage
Clinton 7%
Obama 17%
So, we have a wash. Amongst South Carolina's Edwards supporters, there is a slight edge to Hillary for Commander in Chief, and a slight edge towards Obama as a uniter--but otherwise, your guess is as good as mine, and we don't guess in this particular blog. Keep in mind that the Edwards supporters in South Carolina tended to be white and predominately 45+, territory where Clinton was strongest in South Carolina, but clearly South Carolina's (disapointed) Edwards voters don't appear to lean one way or another based upon the evidence we see here.


Gender Splits from the 2008 Democratic Contests
By Tom Webster on February 1, 2008 4:00 PM | Permalink
"Pre-Super Tuesday Edition." For about the last 30 years, women have been more likely to identify themselves as "Democrat" than "Republican" and have in fact voted that way. After 9/11, however, there were a lot of small shifts in the electorate, and some previously Democratic clusters and psychographic groups leaned towards Bush (the so-called "Security Moms," as an example.) This led to a closing of that gap in 2004, with Bush losing the female vote to Kerry by only three percentage points.

From the character of the primaries and caucuses to date, the gap is returning. The first clue, obviously, was the fact that our 2006 Exit Polls showed that Democrats won the female vote nationwide by 12 points. Now, in 2008, there is even more evidence that the gap is back. Much has been made of Senator Obama's ability to pull younger voters and first-time voters, and Senator Clinton's strength with women. The two clusters are not mutually exclusive, however--a lot of those first time, young voters are, in fact, women, and this has led to an incredible gender split in the contests so far. Here is a graph of the % of females participating in Republican and Democratic primaries (in states that have had both):