***** Official EXIT POLLS Thread *****

[L. Coyote]

You know it's ***** official ***** if it has five stars! :rofl:

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Scientifically accurate exit polls!!!
February 5, 2008 7:13 PM - http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/usa/2008/02/scientifically_accurate_exit_p.html

I'm lifting these from Open Left whose writers, like me, feel perfectly fine about engaging in irresponsible speculation. But here they are. Democrats:

Georgia: Obama 75, Clinton 26
Connecticut: Obama 52, Clinton 45
Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 29
Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton - 37
Delaware Obama 56, Clinton 42
Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 47
Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 45
Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41
New York: Clinton 56, Obama 42
New Jersey: Obama 52, Clinton 47
Arkansas: Clinton 71, Obama 26
Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 30
Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45

1st wave:
New Mexico: Obama 52, Clinton 46
Utah: Obama 60, Clinton 40
California: Clinton 50, Obama 46

Republicans:

McCain:

* New York: McCain 46, Romney 35, Huckabee 10 percent.
* New Jersey: McCain 48 percent, Romney 35, Huckabee 9 percent.
* Connecticut: McCain 50 percent, Romney 32 percent, Huckabee 7 percent.
* Arizona: McCain 44, Romney 39, Huckabee 8
* Oklahoma: McCain 34, Huckabee 32, Romney 27
* Illinois: McCain 47, Romney 31, Huckabee 15
* California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 10 percent. (early wave)

Romney:

* Missouri: Romney 34 percent, McCain 32 percent, Huckabee 25 percent.
* Utah: Romney 91 percent, McCain 5 percent, Huckabee 1 percent.
* Massachusetts: Romney 54, McCain 35
* Delaware: Romney 43, McCain 34, Huckabee 18

Huckabee (who already won West Virginia today):

* Alabama: Huckabee 42 percent, McCain 33 percent, Romney 20 percent
* Tennessee: Huckabee 34, McCain 28, Romney 23
* Arkansas: Huckabee 33, McCain 21, Romney 19
* Georgia: Huckabee 34 percent, Romney 31 percent, McCain 30 percent

As we all know, exit poll data is flawless. It has never, ever led anybody astray. Anybody.

Seriously, I caution all readers to treat these numbers as curiosities--do not become overly excited (for Obama and McCain) or depressed (for Clinton and Romney) just because the first wave data looks this stark. It's just flawed exit polling, people!

[Catshrink]

1. Romney took Utah -- that's a shocker.

What's this? Obama kicking butt? I can't wait to see if this holds up.

[L. Coyote]

2. Leaked exit polls suggest good news tonight for Huckabee

As NPR discusses Huckster's appeal to evangelicals... yata yata

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Leaked exit polls suggest good news tonight for Huckabee
Michael Roston - Super Tuesday Feb 5, 2008 - http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Leaked_exit_polls_suggest_good_news_0205.html


Gov. Mike Huckabee received good news this afternoon after a strategic move by John McCain awarded him the 18 delegates up for grabs at West Virginia's state Republican convention. And if the results pointed to in leaked exit poll data can be believed, he might be in for more optimism about his presidential prospects this evening. His "Southern strategy," in which he concentrated his campaigning efforts in states with heavy concentrations of social conservatives, may have paid off.

The National Review Online's Campaign Spot blog published exit poll data culled from a secret source. But the information is only a rumor, and as the magazine's Jim Geraghty pointed out, "Don't let some report on a blog discourage you from exercising a right that our forefathers fought and died for."

Still, the imperfect exit poll data showed that Huckabee was set to win pluralities of the ballots cast in a range of Southern states: Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, and his home-state of Arkansas.

If the results are true, Huckabee will exit Super Tuesday able to make a case that his candidacy must be taken more seriously than it has been to date.

..........

[underpants]

6. That will rap it up for McCain

[L. Coyote]

3. Edison Media Research conducts exit polls with primary election voters across the country

Local Firm on Front Lines for Super Tuesday
Edison Media Research conducts exit polls with primary election voters across the country
By Thomas Gaudio - 2/4/2008 - http://www.njbiz.com/weekly_article.asp?aID=31698608.1920587.951223.2613903.8331197.216&aID2=73162


A small research company in Somerville is playing a major role in this week’s Super Tuesday balloting.

Edison Media Research and its partner, New York City-based Mitofsky International, will be stationed outside primary polls in 16 states, including New Jersey. The companies will be on the front lines to survey voters after they’ve cast their ballots, and to report the outcome of the elections.

The National Election Pool (NEP), a consortium of six news organizations including the Associated Press, CNN and the news division of ABC, has contracted the duo to conduct the research during this year’s presidential primaries, caucuses and general election. Other news companies paying for the data include The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and USA Today, says Joe Lenski, executive vice president of Edison Media Research.

The news companies use the information to project winners, and to provide readers and viewers with statistical information on voters, like age, gender and ethnicity.

Edison Media Research, which conducts market and opinion surveys for a plethora of companies, and Mitofsky International will employ an army of about 1,000 workers on Super Tuesday. Between 30,000 and 40,000 surveys will be completed in precincts nationwide, with roughly 1,600 surveys being filled out in New Jersey, estimates Lenski.

There are elections in 24 states .........

[L. Coyote]

4. Preliminary exit polls = Analysis: Clinton and Obama Start Anew

NPR saying Clinton and Huckabee carry Arkansas.

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Analysis: Clinton and Obama Start Anew
By JIM KUHNHENN – 18 minutes ago - http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gIQWLfRk3R3bFbpnCxn0hA2lioVgD8UKGH0O0

Preliminary exit polls of voters in primary states showed Obama encroaching on Clinton's traditional support. Clinton had only a slight edge among women and with whites, two areas where she has generally dominated Obama. Obama had a small advantage with men — including with white men, a group with whom he has struggled for votes in most previous contests.

Those results augured well for Obama for the remainder of the night and could help him in contests in coming weeks.

The campaigns, like sports teams that have clinched a playoff spot, already have been preparing for the landscape ahead. Obama has been advertising in states with primaries and caucuses over the next seven days. Clinton strategists are looking over the horizon into March and April when Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania hold primaries.

Polls show Obama virtually eliminating Clinton's lead in national polls and in some key states.

After a month of early contests — from Iowa to New Hampshire to Nevada to South Carolina — the two candidates have essentially divided the electorate into two component parts. He gets young voters, educated voters, black voters. She gets women, working-class voters and Hispanics.

[L. Coyote]

5. Exit Poll Shows Obama Blowout In Illinois

Exit Poll Shows Obama Blowout In Illinois
Illinois Is Only State With No Significant Gender Gap, CBS News Poll Says
- http://cbs2chicago.com/politics/illinois.gender.primary.2.646715.html

CHICAGO (CBS) ― With just 10 minutes to go before polls closed in Illinois Tuesday, a poll showed an Obama blowout, and no significant gender gap among Illinois voters.

A CBS News exit poll indicted that among white voters, 62 percent voted for Barack Obama, while 36 percent voted for Hillary Clinton. Among African-American voters, 95 percent voted for Obama, while only 4 percent voted for Clinton. The numbers were significantly closer among Hispanic voters, with 51 percent voting for Obama, and 47 percent voting for Clinton.

The poll indicated that Illinois was the only state where no significant gender gap was seen among voters.

A total of 60 percent of women voted for Obama, while only 33 percent voted for Clinton. Among men, 69 percent voted for Obama, while 27 percent voted for Clinton.

Among white women, 61 percent voted for Obama to 38 percent for Clinton, while among white men, 64 percent voted for Obama, and 32 percent voted for Clinton. ..........

[catagory5]

7. HUH

Where are these from??
Wow Fox news and cnn is reporting much, much different results. FOR CLINTON

[L. Coyote]

9. news.google is updating rather often, changing fast, lots of stuff

[maryallen]

8. With re: California, what does "First Wave" mean?

Polling was done in the first part of the day?
or
Early voting?

[L. Coyote]

10. Exit polling. Some think the late day and early voters are distinct demographics in many areas.

[L. Coyote]

11. The latest exit poll news

The latest exit poll news - http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/the_real_american_idol/article768010.ece

EARLY exit polls across the US suggest that the Democrat race is tight, with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton locked together in their bid for the Democrat nomination.

The early returns from the eastern side of the USA have been mixed for the leading candidates.

The exit poll from Georgia, the first state where polls closed, indicated Barack Obama would win 2/3 of the available delegates. He is also looking like winning his home state of Illinois.

Great news for Barack Obama in the early exit polls was that he looks to have made a major advance among white voters.

Hillary Clinton was ahead in early exit polls from Tennessee, Alabama and Oklahoma, allaying fears that she would be heavily beaten in the southern states.

Despite a late surge by Obama in New York, Clinton remains favourite to hold her own state. .............

[maryallen]

14. So, the exit poll for MA did not hold?

MSNBC has called Massachusetts for Clinton.

Above, exit polls predict MA for Obama 50-47.

[L. Coyote]

16. I wonder what the Margin of Error is? Polls!! *&**%$**#*

[maryallen]

18. I hope this is not a repeat of NH exit polls!

Those(NH) still bother me -- something like a 13-16 point swing?

[L. Coyote]

12. Georgia on My Mind "... results seem to show two things:..."

Georgia on My Mind - http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/02/06/georgia-on-my-mind.aspx

The Georgia results seem to show two things: 1) Almost all the John Edwards vote, which was primarily white, went to Barack Obama, 2) Obama slightly increased his already large margin among black voters over the last weeks. If you look at the Mason-Dixon poll from early January, Obama had 36 percent of the overall Georgia vote, Clinton 33 percent, and Edwards 14 percent, with 17 percent undecided. Blacks often say they are undecided, so it is probably a fair guess to say that more than half of these undecided voters were African Americans. According to the exit polls now (which are revised later), Obama will defeat Clinton by 60 to 34 percent. In other words, Clinton failed to increase her vote from early January. ..........

[L. Coyote]

13. Exit polls: Romney, Huckabee split conservative vote

Exit polls: Romney, Huckabee split conservative vote
Bill Schneider - CNN - http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/05/super.exit/


(CNN) -- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee appeared to be competing closely for votes among Republican voters who describe themselves as "conservative," according to early exit polls of voters in the 15 states across the country with Republican primaries Tuesday.

About 80 percent of Romney voters described themselves as "conservative," while 75 percent of Huckabee voters described themselves as "conservative," the initial exit polls showed.

Less than half -- 49 percent -- of those who said they voted for Arizona Sen. John McCain described themselves as "conservative," the exit polls showed.

For Democrats, early exit polls showed that Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York and Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois were nearly splitting voters who had decided who to vote for in the last three days.

About 47 percent of those voters said they had picked Obama, versus 46 percent who said they had voted for Clinton.

Though close, the exit polls suggested that the Democratic base is not bitterly divided over its choice.

Nearly two-thirds -- 72 percent -- of Democratic voters said they'd be satisfied with Clinton as the nominee, and 71 percent said they'd be happy with Obama..........

[L. Coyote]

15. Early victories and momentum for Obama

Early victories and momentum for Obama
February 6, 2008 - http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3316374.ece

Projected wins:
Obama - Illinois, Georigia
Clinton - Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee

John McCain - Connecticut, Illinois and New Jersey
Romney - Massachusetts
Huckabee - West Virginia, Arkansas
Barack Obama in Minnesota

Barack Obama: landslide victories predicted in Georgia and Alabama
Tom Baldwin in Washington and Tim Reid in Chicago

Romney cries foul over Huckabee victory in West Virginia

Barack Obama racked up landslide victories in the early Super Tuesday contests as exit polls showed that the Illinois senator was also locked in a close races with Hillary Clinton in eastern states that she had been expected to win by a margin.

Mr Obama won Georgia at a stroll, .............

[L. Coyote]

17. Exit Poll: Economy Top Issue on Minds of Massachusetts Voters

Tornado outbreaks are impacting the voting is some towns!

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Exit Poll: Economy Top Issue on Minds of Massachusetts Voters
by Associated Press - February 5, 2008 - http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/02/05/exit-poll-economy-top-issue-on-minds-of-massachusetts-voters/


BOSTON — The nation’s rocky economy is top on the minds of voters heading to the polls this primary day in Massachusetts.

Preliminary exit poll results conducted for The Associated Press show close to half of all Republican and Democratic voters say the economy is the most important challenge facing the nation.

For Democratic voters, the war in Iraq places a close second with nearly four of ten calling it the top issue. Health care placed a distant third.

For Republican voters, immigration placed second ....

[L. Coyote]

19. Dems 48% ECONOMY most-important 52% Ability to bring change

Clinton best commander-in-chief

Terrorism is #4 issue for Dems

Rs = 44% want someone who "shares their values"

[maryallen]

21. Another twist: NJ called for Clinton and AL for Obama.

Above exit polls for NJ predict Obama 52-47.

I'm getting that feeling in the pit of my stomach.
MSNBC commentators -- Matthews & Fineman -- having a field day with Clinton "beating the Kennedys."

[L. Coyote]

23. I don't trust pollsters. PERIOD.

If you wanted to control what people think, start by telling them what they think!

[L. Coyote]

20. Home > Politics > How do Exit Polls Work? Find Out Here

If you trust abcnews :rofl:

Ralph Reed was just on NBC, in case you still had doubts about who is and isn't Tool T-V!

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Home > Politics > How do Exit Polls Work? Find Out Here
Frequently Asked Questions About the Polls that Help Determine Race Calls
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4243982&page=1

ABC News is conducting exit polls in 31 primary races on Super Tuesday, along with polling partners CBS, CNN, Fox, NBC and the Associated Press. On election days, exit polls remain the best source of information about who voted, for whom they voted, and why. Here are answers to some frequently asked questions about exit polls:

What are they?

...........

[Flabbergasted]

22. k

[Flabbergasted]

24. k

[L. Coyote]

25. Exit Poll Mania -- Beware "early exit polls"

Exit Poll Mania -- Beware
Morra Aarons-Mele
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/morra-aaronsmele/exit-poll-mania-beware_b_85198.html

These early exit polls, courtesy of Open Left, could lead an Obama fan to faint:

Here you go. I have no idea how reliable these are. ...If these are real, Obama has thrashed Clinton today.
Georgia: Obama 75, Clinton 26
Connecticut: Obama 52, Clinton 45
Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 29
Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton - 37
Delaware Obama 56, Clinton 42
Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 47
Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 45
Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41
New York: Clinton 56, Obama 42
New Jersey: Obama 52, Clinton 47
Arkansas: Clinton 71, Obama 26
Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 30
Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45

But, as a former John Kerry staffer from 2004, exit polls make me beyond anxious. On Election Day 2004, early exit polls had Kerry beating Bush, 50% to 48%. And we all know what happened. So as we head into the race-calling hours, with polls that will no doubt be tighter than the ones above, I'm dusting off my statistics, courtesy of my fantastic statistics teacher Deb Hughes Hallett. The horse race coverage is a dangerous thing. Take my home state in early exit polls: "Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 47."

............

[L. Coyote]

26. Exit polls show wins for Obama and Clinton

Exit polls show wins for Obama and Clinton
By Toby Harnden in Chicago - 2:10am GMT 06/02/2008 - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/02/06/wuspols606.xml


The spoils were shared in the first states called after the polls closed on Super Tuesday, a potential turning point in the 2008 presidential nomination stakes and one of the biggest voting days in American political history.

In the Democratic contest, Barack Obama scored big victories in his home state of Illinois and Georgia while Hillary Clinton took Oklahoma, Tennessee, Arkansas and her home state of New York. There appeared to be close contests in her backyard of New Jersey. .......

CHARTS HERE

Polls ahead of Super Tuesday showed Obama creeping up on Clinton and McCain pulling into the lead

..........

[L. Coyote]

27. Exit Poll Results Nationwide

Exit Poll Results Nationwide
By ALAN FRAM – 41 minutes ago - http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5giZDjUrVk9p4HpVouqLhFbdtXTYAD8UKH9400

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton was strongly supported by Hispanics and people seeking an experienced candidate, but Barack Obama was eating into her usual dominance of women and whites, in early national exit polls Tuesday. A coalition of black, young, white and higher-income voters were flocking to Obama.

On the Republican side, preliminary data from exit polls of voters in 16 states showed Sen. John McCain getting strong support from moderates and people valuing experience and leadership. He and Mitt Romney were battling for an edge among party regulars, while Romney was getting strong backing from the GOP's most conservative voters and people wanting a strong stance against illegal immigrants.

Obama, an Illinois senator, was getting support from more than four in 10 women and about the same number of whites, leaving him just a few percentage points behind Clinton. That was a narrower deficit than he has faced in most states that have held nominating contests so far, with part of his strength coming from people under age 44, whom he was dominating.

In Oklahoma, a state Clinton won overall, there was no gender gap for her; she won among men and women. McCain won in New Jersey and Connecticut, where nearly half the voters were moderates and liberals who strongly support him. He also won in Illinois, a state dominated by conservative GOP voters, in part because Huckabee and Romney split most of the conservative vote, while the three rivals shared support from evangelicals.

Nationally, Obama was getting the backing of eight in 10 blacks, his usual margin. But Clinton, a New York senator, was countering with .......

..........

[L. Coyote]

28. Highlights of exit poll in Illinois president race

As Huckabee is about to address a crowd.

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Highlights of exit poll in Illinois president race
AP - February 5, 2008 8:45 PM CST - http://www.thesouthern.com/articles/2008/02/05/ap-state-il/d8ukhjn8e.txt


Some highlights of data from exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and television networks in the Illinois presidential primary Tuesday. Numbers are preliminary.

Even though it's perhaps the first presidential race in history with a major black and woman candidate facing each other, three quarters of Democratic voters said neither race nor gender was an important factor in which candidate to choose.

Illinois senator Barack Obama won more than nine in 10 black Democrats' votes but also won three in five white votes. ................

[L. Coyote]

29. Exit Poll Results Nationwide

Exit Poll Results Nationwide
By ALAN FRAM - http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2008/02/05/ap/politics/d8ukhd8o0.txt


WASHINGTON - Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton was strongly supported by Hispanics and people seeking an experienced candidate, but Barack Obama was eating into her usual dominance of women and whites, in early national exit polls Tuesday. A coalition of black, young, white and higher-income voters were flocking to Obama.

On the Republican side, preliminary data from exit polls of voters in 16 states showed Sen. John McCain getting strong support from moderates and people valuing experience and leadership. He and Mitt Romney were battling for an edge among party regulars, while Romney was getting strong backing from the GOP's most conservative voters and people wanting a strong stance against illegal immigrants.

Obama, an Illinois senator, was getting support from more than four in 10 women and about the same number of whites, leaving him just a few percentage points behind Clinton. That was a narrower deficit than he has faced in most states that have held nominating contests so far, with part of his strength coming from people under age 44, whom he was dominating.

In Oklahoma, a state Clinton won overall, there was no gender gap .................

[L. Coyote]

30. Exit Polls Track Trends of Voters

Exit Polls Track Trends of Voters
By ALAN FRAM – 18 minutes ago - http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5giZDjUrVk9p4HpVouqLhFbdtXTYAD8UKJ2KG1

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton was strongly supported by Hispanics and people seeking an experienced candidate, but Barack Obama was eating into her usual dominance of women and whites, in early national exit polls Tuesday. A coalition of black, young, white and higher-income voters were flocking to Obama.

On the Republican side, preliminary data from exit polls of voters in 16 states showed Sen. John McCain getting broad support, including strong backing from moderates and people valuing experience and leadership. He and Mitt Romney were battling for an edge among party regulars, while Romney had an advantage with the GOP's most conservative voters and people wanting a strong stance against illegal immigrants.

Obama, an Illinois senator, was getting support from more than four in 10 women and about the same number of whites, leaving him just a few percentage points behind Clinton. That was a narrower deficit than he has faced in most states that have held nominating contests so far, with part of his strength coming from people under age 44, whom he was dominating.

"I think Obama can bring a more radical change," said Linda Ster, 44, a social worker in Nashville, Tenn. "I have voted for a Clinton already. I want something different — way different — this time."

In Oklahoma, a state Clinton won overall, ..........

[L. Coyote]

31. California was Clinton 50, Obama 46 = Results are 50-40 instead.

More interesting is a comparison of Repub and Dem demographics:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/stat...

Dems 55% Female
Reps 46% Female

Is this the "Hillary Effect" or usual?

[L. Coyote]

32. Online REFERENCE for the exit polls at CNN has considerable detail

Check out the details in this presentation:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#CADEM