Todd: How nasty will it get?

[Renew Deal]

*** How nasty will it get? Now that a majority of the country has voted and the delegate battle is THISCLOSE, the likelihood that both campaigns will decide it's ok to go negative is high. Someone needs a knockout, particularly Clinton since she appears to have the bigger resource problem. The good news for Clinton is that the burden of expectations is on Obama; any victory between now and March 4 for Clinton will be deemed an upset and Clinton has fed off of hyped-up Obama expectations. Clinton's camp needs to peel away white men from Obama; Obama needs to peel away downscale women from Clinton. Appealing to both key demographic groups could easily lead the campaigns down the low road. By the way, what will have a greater effect on the media regarding what happened last night? The results from this weekend's events or the first wave of national polls? If Clinton is ahead in the national primary (which, by the way, should that include states that already voted? What say you pollsters?), does that mean Clinton won Super Tuesday? If Obama continues to be stronger than Clinton against McCain, does that tip things to Obama? Bottom line, as important as the delegate fight is, the national polls and the C.W. they create will be very influential, particularly with superdelegates, who are finger-in-the-wind deciders at this point.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/06/642567.aspx