Will "Super Delegates" be to 2008 what the Supreme Court was in 2000? Elites picking over people?

[jackstraw45]

Something tells me our Democratic primary system will be different in 2012 with less emphasis on super-delegates....regardless of who wins, elite members of congress and the DNC should NOT be the final say on our nominee.

[eleny]

1. Didn't the super delegates become part of the process.....

..... when the primary system without them selected a candidate who lost miserably? So the Party stepped in and created the super delegates.

Edit: It was after the McGovern debacle in '72. http://polipundit.com/index.php?p=1225

[Windy]

2. It could happen. Hopefully the superdelegates will look at the votes of their

respective constituencies as opposed to party strongarming when deciding who to lend their support to.

To do otherwise, may cost them their next elections.

[Eurobabe]

3. who thought up this wet dream anyhow?

what a STUPID idea. I will never formally join the Dem Party.

I'll vote Democratic, but there are too many arcane rules and bizarre things (superdelegates amongst them) about the DNC that I cannot stand.

[Bluebear]

4. "Elites" sounds soooo right wing :/

[mac2]

5. The behind the scenes political group can't help themselves

decide who wins and who doesn't. We have to rid ourselves of the Super Delegates. How can be act like we are part of a democracy with such cronies?

[eleny]

6. As Obama said just now in his press conference....

The super delegates need to think long and hard about bucking the electorate in their districts.

For instance, Obama won in a landslide here in the Colorado caucuses last night. If our Dem congress critters vote for Clinton they could face harsh criticism this November. Tricky stuff.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

7. The very idea of a "super delegate" is undemocratic...

IMO. Very much a paternalistic "we know what's better for you" attitude that takes away the power from the people.

If the super delagates change who the people decided they want as their nominee -- watch out. It could get UGLY.

[mac2]

12. Ugly is not what members of our party are feeling right now

angry is the mood.

[SoFlaJet]

8. One change I want to see

is Iowa and NH and Nevada NOT being able to have 20 times the vote power that the rest of us have-every time-it should be done on a rotating basis, and I still support MY state's decision to move our primary up the way they did. Whatever happened to the concept of State's rights in the democratic party?

[MilesColtrane]

9. Since Clinton and Obama are in a dead heat when it comes to pledged delegates...

...the superdelegates are the ones who are deciding the frontrunner so far.

Considering the handful of delegates that Edwards has and the fact that he hasn't endorsed anyone yet, and the question of whether Michigan and Florida's delegates will be seated, this is going to be one rip snortin' hellbender of a convention.

[ieoeja]

10. My prediction

They will vote for the candidate who comes into the convention with the greatest number of delegates to avoid a brokered convention.

Date - State, District, etc -Prediction
2/9/2008 -Louisiana -Strong Obama (they see RED when exposed to Clintons)
2/9/2008 -Nebraska -Strong Obama (RED)
2/9/2008 -Virgin Islands -Strong Clinton (default)
2/9/2008 -Washington -Weak Clinton (old coalition gets net gain/loss of 1 delegate)
2/10/2008 -Maine -Weak Clinton (old coalition)
2/12/2008 -District of Columbia -Strong Obama (black)
2/12/2008 -Maryland -Strong Obama (RED)
2/12/2008 -Virginia -Strong Obama (RED)
2/19/2008 -Hawaii -Strong Obama (home team)
2/19/2008 -Wisconsin -Weak Clinton (old coalition)
3/4/2008 -Ohio -Weak Obama (Purple)
3/4/2008 -Rhode Island -Weak Clinton (old coalition)
3/4/2008 -Texas -Strong Obama (RED)
3/4/2008 -Vermont -Weak Clinton (old coalition)
3/8/2008 -Wyoming -Strong Obama (RED)
3/11/2008 -Mississippi -Strong Obama (RED)
4/22/2008 -Pennsylvania -Weak Clinton (old coalition)
5/3/2008 -Guam -Strong Obama (home team)
5/6/2008 -Indiana -Strong Obama (RED)
5/6/2008 -North Carolina -Strong Obama (RED)
5/13/2008 -West Virginia -Strong Obama (RED)
5/20/2008 -Kentucky -Weak Obama (Purple)
5/20/2008 -Oregon -Weak Clinton (old coalition)
6/1/2008 -Puerto Rico -Strong Clinton (hispanic)
6/3/2008 -Montana -Strong Obama (RED)
6/3/2008 -South Dakota -Strong Obama (RED)


Given: Obama's margins of victory have been larger than Clinton's on average.

Given: there are more RED and PURPLE states remaining where Obama wins big than old 90's coalition states where Clinton barely wins.

Then: I believe Obama is going to come into the convention with more delegates.

The super-delegates will go big for Obama because:
1. They do not want to repeat the '68 debacle (rejecting the will of the people).
2. Obama has shown potential to win across the nation.
3. African-Americans believe the Clintons resorted to coded appeals to racism against Obama, and the super-delegates will want to make it clear that the Democratic Party does NOT support that position.

[MilesColtrane]

11. I could just as easily see a scenario in which Obama and Clinton are tied going into the convention.

Hillary appeals to the party insiders for the need to shore up the party and to make some show of unity for the eventual nominee.

She tells them that if they cast their votes as a superdelegates for her, the decision whether or not to allow the Florida and Michigan delegates onto the convention floor falls to her, which she will graciously accede to, healing any bad feelings within the party and conveniently boosting her numbers.

Her argument will be that it is better to have all the state parties on board for the general election, and better for the national party to present a candidate that has more than just a bare majority of it's own member's support going up against McCain.

BTW interesting factoid: a super delegate wields the power to nullify the popular votes of 153,636 party members. (based on 2004 voter turnout...likely to be a much higher figure this time)

I am afraid that these will be the people deciding the next Democratic presidential nominee:


http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

edited for clarity

[ieoeja]

13. Plausible (with one correction).

A committee of 130 delegates at the convention will decide if MI/FL delegates get seated. Not the nominee.

I have seen that notion repeated here several times. I think someone made that speculation and ever since then DUers have been repeating it thinking it was true. It's not.

Ditto the chair of the DNC. If Hillary gets elected she will nominate someone, but the DNC need not elect her nominee. Of course, her winning the election would be a good argument for listening to her. On the other hand, that's why they elected Bill's nominees who proved disastrous for the party. DNC members with a long enough memory may well snub their noses at Hillary even if she does win.

[MilesColtrane]

14. Hmm, I hadn't heard this.

I don't recall where I read that the party's nominee decides.

What committee makes the call?

Will this be the Convention Credentials Committee, the Rules Committee, or some other?

[ieoeja]

15. Convention Credentials Committee n/t