California Exit Poll - Obama ties Hillary in the white vote - bad news for Hillary?

[NJSecularist]

http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/california-democratic-exit-poll/

That might be bad news going forward for the Clinton campaign. Obama still has the Hispanic vote problem, but Hillary had a big advantage among white voters in early contests. She doesn't have that anymore.

Going forward, this might hurt her a ton in states with large white populations - especially with her nonexistant black support.

[comfycouch]

1. It's bad news ONLY if that exit poll accurately predicted the overall result

Because if an exit poll doesn't know what it's saying about the final overall result, it doesn't know what it's saying about all other statistics derived from this result.

[NJSecularist]

3. Very true

But it's all we have.

[Cha]

2. I should hope Obama is

getting into the "tie" area with the Whites of our population. Obama transcends the race issue with his stands on the important issues like the war on Iraq, environment, economy, ad infinitum.

[thevoiceofreason]

4. I don't see the problem

He is building suppport and backing from a variety of demographics. Watch next as Sen. Obama finds the keys to reaching across to the hispanic/latino vote, phrasing his message in a way they can get on board with, and taking off.

[spooky3]

5. that does not appear to be true, per CNN's site

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#CADEM

Obama won only the 18-44 year old "white non-Latino vote" and these voters were only 17% of the total sample. Clinton won the 45 and up "white non-Latino vote", but these voters were 36% of the sample, and Edwards got some voters in each of these categories. I'm not sure why California would be any more reflective of other states than any of the other primary states would be.

It's not correct to say her support from blacks is non-existent; about 15-20% of blacks voting in previous primaries supported her.

[Windy]

6. He clearly got the white vote in GA, CT, IA, ID, ND, KS, MN, UT, CO,

MASS, DE, NM, AZ CA..etc..

AK, etc.... He couldn't have carried the percentage of the vote he had without the white vote and votes from women too!!!

He was only beaten by hillary in wide margins in Arkansas and OK.

He even got some of the Hispanic vote in NM.

I heard that early voting was a major factor in CA with 2,000,000 votes cast well before the date of the primary and therefore, well before Obama started moving up significantly with his push.

We will just have to wait and see what happens down the line.

also, don't forget that in the general, some more socially right leaning hispanics will also break for McCain due to his co-sponsoring of immigration reform legislation with Kennedy.

If obama is either knocked out, or if Hillary wins and he is not at least offered the VP slot by clinton, you may see african americans sitting out the election and young voters too. Depending on how close it is and if superdelegates decide the nomination, the supporters of the candidate who is nudged out by the establishment may also sit out the election. We have a very tenacious situation brewing here.

[Avalux]

7. It's very bad new and will have an impact here in Texas. n/t

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. Let's see... Obama ties with whites, crushes with blacks and loses the State handily

Obviously bad news for Hillary.

[NJSecularist]

9. The difference - Hispanics and Asians

which consist of a huge amount of people in California, unlike the majority of the states upcoming in this race.

[Windy]

10. considering 2 million early vote ballots and the move up in the polls from a +20 pt. deficit

I see that as doing very well and it clearly indicates a trend.