Prediction markets give Obama 60% chance of winning nomination....

[calteacherguy]

Before Tuesday, prediction markets had him with a 40% chance.

www.intrade.com

And the pundits say nobody won. :shrug:

[onehandle]

1. So predictions are stronger than actual votes to you?

Interesting.

[calteacherguy]

3. Tied in votes so far, and we have the momentum and the resources.

Markets trade on momentum and resources.

:hi:

[onehandle]

4. But you obviously think that the pundits shouldn't be calling it a tie.

So they should skew in favor of what may be instead of what is?

Like Fox News?

:shrug:

[jlake]

2. They seem to swing 20 points a day whenever there is any news - nothing more than people trading

on their fleeting feelings.

[skipos]

6. You are 100% wrong

I watch intrade everyday and the Hillary/Obama ratio has never swung 20% without a big event. Clinton was at 58% during the NV caucuses, and went up when the results came in. She has been between 60% and 70% until yesterday.

[Bullet1987]

5. Obama's bump in the markets likely comes from Hillary's money problem...