http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/polls/pdfs/columbus-pos-dispatch-january23to31-2008-ohio-polls.pdfDISPATCH POLL
Clinton, McCain have edge in Ohio
Sunday, February 3, 2008 3:42 AM
BY DARREL ROWLAND
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH
Barack Obama has convinced Iowa, South Carolina and even
Teddy Kennedy.
But the Illinois senator has yet to make the sale in Ohio.
A new Dispatch Poll shows New York Sen. Hillary Clinton holds
more than a 2-to-1 lead over Obama among Ohio Democrats.
Meanwhile, Buckeye State Republicans favor Arizona Sen. John
McCain by 6 points over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt
Romney.
Although Ohioans have seen little firsthand of the intensely
competitive 2008 presidential campaign, that almost certainly
will change if the race stretches beyond this week's Super
Tuesday contests in multiple states across the country.
Ohio's March 4 primary date, which it shares with Texas and
two smaller states, would become by far the biggest delegate prize
left in the campaign.
Obama's failure to win support from even one in five Ohio
Democrats is the poll's most striking finding. He barely beat
former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who withdrew last
week. The poll included all candidates who qualified for the Ohio
ballot; those who have quit the race have until 4 p.m. Monday to
withdraw their names officially.
Clinton benefited from an overwhelming poll response from
women, who make up two-thirds of her support, to build a
23-point lead over Obama.
"I like her determination when she chooses an issue. She's
methodical," said poll participant Janet E. Cook, a Mount Vernon
real-estate agent. "I would like to see some major changes and
want someone who can get change accomplished in Congress."
She looks back fondly on the '90s and the presidency of Bill
Clinton.
"I had pretty good times during the Clinton years," said Cook,
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54. "It was good for me and my kids going to college. Things have
changed."
Obama supporters, who held their first Ohio organizational
meeting yesterday in Columbus, say he will make enormous gains
once he starts campaigning here. And the poll only reflects
partisan registered voters; Obama has benefited from a surge
among independents in several early-primary states (as has
McCain).
Ohio law allows voters to ask for whichever party's ballot they
want. However, if that request doesn't match their current party
registration, they might be required to sign a statement swearing
that they adhere to the principles of their "new" party -- although
such challenges are rare. The voter also becomes officially
registered with the "new" party.
Elizabeth Phelps, 51, a homemaker from Xenia, said she will
vote for Obama because "he's really about bringing change for
people."
"We've had the same old stuff for so many years. I think if
Hillary gets in, it's going to be the same thing we had before."
Phelps likes Obama's sincerity. "I think even without
experience, his good qualities are getting through to people. We
need to vote for whoever is going to get in there and do the job.
We can't use race. We can't use male or female."
Democratic respondent Mary Ann Riesbeck, a 30-year-old
elementary-school teacher from Reynoldsburg, is torn between
Obama and Clinton.
Riesbeck said the nation was in much better shape when
President Clinton was in office, but she doesn't really like Mrs.
Clinton.
"She's a little pushy for my liking," Riesbeck said.
On the other hand, she doesn't agree with all of Obama's
positions. Riesbeck plans to research the candidates' positions on
the Internet and consult with family members before deciding.
Republican voters who say immigration is the most important
issue favor Romney; those who choose another issue all line up
behind McCain.
Andrew V. Cahill, 43, a Republican from Batavia in
southwestern Ohio, said he backs McCain because "overall I think
he's got the most experience on a national level."
Cahill said he likes McCain's national security expertise and his
emphasis on curbing excessive federal spending and pork-barrel
congressional projects.
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HOW THE POLL WAS
CONDUCTED
The Dispatch Poll was based on
returns from 2,156 registered
Democratic voters and 2,139
registered Republican voters who
say they intend to vote in Ohio's
primary election on March 4.
The Dispatch obtained a
computerized list of all registered
voters in Ohio from the secretary of
state. Those who had not voted
since 2003 were eliminated. A
Dispatch computer then randomly
chose who would receive poll ballots,
which included the names of all
presidential candidates who qualified
for the official Ohio ballot.
Voters receiving the ballots were
asked to describe themselves by
party affiliation, age, sex, race,
education, income, religion, union
membership and the candidates they
voted for in the 2004 presidential
contest and 2006 governor's race.
Ballots of different colors were
mailed to various regions of the state
so The Dispatch could ensure that
each area was represented in
proportion to its actual voting
strength. The areas, patterned on
groupings of the state's six major
media markets, are: northeast (20
counties); central (20 counties);
southwest (eight counties);
northwest (12 counties); west central
(14 counties); and southeast (14
counties).
The standard margin of sampling
error in a poll of the size conducted
by The Dispatch is plus or minus 2
percentage points in 95 out of 100
cases. This means that if a poll is
conducted 100 times, in 95 cases
the result will not vary by more than
2 percentage points from the result
that would be obtained if all
registered Democratic and
Sally Key, 58, a Westerville homemaker who has a degree in
marketing, likes Romney's proven expertise in the private sector.
"To say that Gov. Romney has been successful in all that he has
pursued is quite an understatement," she said. "He has
overachieved and exceeded expectations -- even his own -- at
every turn. His business experience is proof that he knows how to
take a poorly functioning organization and turn it into a
productive enterprise. Is that skill ever needed in D.C.!"
Ohio's GOP contest likely will be decided by the 25 percent still
undecided.
One of them is Jack W. Render, 68, of Salem in northeastern
Ohio, who says he's never missed an election since he was old
enough to vote.
A self-described "ultraconservative," the retired General Motors middle-manager said the favorite
of many social conservatives, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, isn't a great choice, although
he'd make a good vice president.
Render, a veteran, said he respects McCain's military service, but he said the longtime senator is
too steeped in the Washington culture and harbors liberal views on such topics as illegal
immigration and gay marriage.
Romney's religion is a deal-breaker for Render.
"I know that Mr. Romney is a Mormon," said Render, a Protestant. "He can call himself a
Christian all he wants, but it's not a Christian faith."
Nancy Nanes, 49-year-old accountant from Lake Milton near Youngstown, is another Republican
weighing her choices.
"I'm concerned that some of them are supporters of President Bush, and I'm not at all happy with
what he's doing with the war," she said. "I tend to lean toward McCain, but his age is a big concern
of mine."
Although she'll remain a Republican in the primary, Nanes said she is considering, for the first
time in her life, voting for a Democrat for president -- possibly Hillary Clinton.
The mail poll of 2,156 Democratic voters and 2,139 Republican voters was conducted Jan. 23
through Thursday. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Dispatch reporters Catherine Candisky, Alan Johnson, James Nash, Mark Niquette, Jonathan
Riskind, Jim Siegel and Jack Torry contributed to this story.
drowland@dispatch.com
Copyright © 2008, The Columbus Dispatch
Republican voters in Ohio were
polled and responded. Error margins
are greater for poll subsamples,
such as female voters.
Like all polls, the Dispatch Poll is
subject to possible error other than
sampling error. Other sources of
error include unintentional bias in the
wording of questions, data entry
error and nonresponse bias.
Nonresponse bias means those who
responded might not necessarily
reflect the views of those who did not
participate. The response rate for
both Democrats and Republicans
was 28 percent.
The poll was designed, conducted
and financed solely by The Dispatch.
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