Advantage: Obama?

[lwcon]

I'm not predicting the end-game, but I’d be surprised to see how Obama doesn’t come out of March looking like a lion.

He’s got the media on his side, louder activists, and all the endorsements. The next round of states plays, I think, in his favor:

Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, U.S. Virgin Islands, Maine, District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii, and Wisconsin.

How many of those do we expect Hillary to win?

Maine, maybe, given their penchant for distaff Senators.

Wisconsin, probably not — it's a safe bet that the UW voters are swooning for the hopey changey guy from neighboring Illinois.

Nebraska, I don't know. On Super Tuesday, Obama won a number of midwestern states, so I wouldn't be confident putting this one in Hillary's column.

Barack's home state of Hawaii? Not every day, they get a favorite son in the White House, eh?

Washington also strikes me as Obama country: moneyed liberals and lotsa yutes.

Virginia is a tough one to call, but since black voters are, it seems, not in play, one looks to the white voters, a great many of whom work for the military-industrial complex. Given that they get a daily dose of hearing that Hillary is a fat, lesbian, Marxist devil, one wonders if she can build a sufficient coalition of the pragmatic.

Ditto for Maryland, I reckon.

And the demographics of Louisiana, U.S. Virgin Islands, and especially D.C. presumably make those non-starters for Hillary, though with all the states, I claim little-to-no expertise.

Of course Zogby, who had Obama winning handily in California, does claim expertise. So, I say "Yes We Can" make uninformed predictions.

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The Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy, now at my new home: Correntewire.com

[lwcon]

1. That should have said

"heads into March like a lion," since the primaries in question are all in Feb.

The major ones in March (Ohio, Texas) are likely to be much more strongly contested, in my personal guesstimate.

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The Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy, now at my new home: Correntewire.com