As an Obama supporter, I say if he loses FL, MI, CA, NY, NJ, PA, OH and TX, he should not win

[Tropics_Dude83]

I hate to give a victory to the Hillbots but if Obama loses Ohio, TX, NM, PA, MI, FL, CA, NJ, MA and NM, even if he is ahead in pledged delegates, he has no business being our nominee. These are all critical swing states and if he doesn't show appeal there, I will have to reluctantly and with great pause support Hillary Clinton as Obama will have proven himself unelectable in the battleground states.

He needs to win Ohio, TX or PA period.

And yes I know the argument about Fl and Mi.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

1. CA and MA are swing states?

Hardly.

[Orangepeel]

6. Not to mention TX

:eyes:

Now, MO is a swing state

[Tropics_Dude83]

7. New Mexico, New Jersey, Arizona, Ohio, PA are

And he's likely to lose all of them. That's devastating. I love Obama tremendously but he is showing ZERO appeal in the battleground states. Zero. I hate to say it.

[Oregone]

22. He had 200K more votes than McCain in New Jersey!

This is nuts! He even had more than McCain in Oklahoma!

Not to mention, in a general he will have Hillary's votes also! The democrats are turning out, thanks to both candidates. Republicans can't get people off the couches this year.

[KittyWampus]

23. He may have WON New Mexico. Ohio hasn't voted yet. You don't know what you're talking about

literally.

[thevoiceofreason]

35. Dude

If they had started off even, Barack and Hillary, let's say in July 2007, then you might be somewhere near a cogent point (and I'll ignore your characterizations of what constitutes a swing state). That would have allowed Barack to tailor a message to the hispanic community, the elderly, etc. He had to spend tremendous amounts of effort on building name recognition. Now that he has that (to which the HRCers whine about the devotion of his supporters), look for more and more targeted, direct appeals, and details, to emerge. Youor approach is like factoring in polls from September. Let's just count the delegates.

[scheming daemons]

2. When did CA and NY become swing states?

Charles Manson could run on the Democratic ticket and win CA and NY.


...and NJ is not a swing state either.... solidly blue.

[enki23]

3. how do you go from being edged out in a primary to losing to the republican in november?

even losing soundly in a primary? how in hell do you people make that fucking jump time and time again?

i mean, you in particular are probably just stirring the shit. but a lot of people seem to legitimately think that way. seriously, it doesn't make any fucking sense. these are *democratic primaries*. the vast, vast majority of swing voters don't attend them. this is not genius level material here.

[tabatha]

4. He was given no chance to have boots on the ground in FL,MI.

That has made a huge difference to his campaign.

Also, early voting in CA hurt him.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

15. Neither did Edwards and Clinton. Obama was the only one with TV ads there.

I have either MSNBC and CNN on all day and I heard many Obama ads but none from Clintpon or Edwards.

[tabatha]

36. Yes, but the Clinton name has been around longer than a year.

Far more. Edwards ran in 2004. Obama's name is new.
Ads don't help - if he is not known.

[Renew Deal]

5. TX, MI, CA, NJ, MA, are not swing states

And PA probably isn't either.

[Eurobabe]

10. PA ain't no fargin swing state

VA yes, but PA no. The Dems will take it. Even with McLame as the nominee. Unless...

[oviedodem]

8. I disagree. Most of those states any dem is going to carry.

Second, if he is the nominee he will keep the young, and split the indies with McCain. I predict in the GE with Obama:

NY, NJ, MA, NM, MI, CA, PA, OH

Will be won by HIM.

Neither Hillary or Obama will win FL PERIOD.

TX is up for grabs because it is a wash with the immigration isssue.

[LynneSin]

9. Obama spent way too much effort in Delaware - that's for sure

Delaware is not a 'must win' state and yet I had at least a dozen Obama people knock on my door including 5 minutes before the polls closed. I found it almost annoying ESPECIALLY since it's real easy to have sent those volunteers over to New Jersey and put the effort in there with a state that actually has delagates to give.

We Delawareans always appreciate when a candidate takes the time to visit our state, usually enroute between PA to DC or something like that. But I knew Obama was in trouble just because of the effort he put into winning Delaware.

(and no - I'm not a Clinton supporter, I voted for Biden)

[Tropics_Dude83]

18. Exactly....

He racked up a number of wins based on the energetic liberal activists but these were all caucuses. He has yet to win a hotly contested critical primary. In fact, he lost all of the major primaries on Tuesdy by double digits.

[LynneSin]

29. Delaware was a primary but still 23 delegates?

point is - he could have easily asked Delaware supporters to travel over the bridge to South Jersey to help get out the vote and perhaps get a win in the Garden state. To be honest, I've rarely done any serious political work here in Delaware. No one is going to unseat Biden or Carper (both dems) and our lone representative Mike Castle (a republican) is hardly worth the effort to unseat since he's one of the most progressive repukes in congress. But travelling across the border to PA gives me plenty of things to fight for. I worked hard with the Joe Sestak race (he upset longtime repuke representative Curt Weldon) and of course, getting Rick Santorum out of office. Plus PA is always considered a swing state during presidential elections.

Last time Delaware had a hot race was before my time in the state with Tom Carper upset Bill Roth for the senate. If we ever have a race like that again I would help - but I'd rather put my resources to where we can make a difference.

[Barack_America]

24. I knocked on doors in New Jersey.

Obama had people there too.

The problem with New Jersey (particularly Southern New Jersey) was that many people were unregistered. There simply wasn't enough time between the Iowa primary and that one for interested people to register.

We're going to have that covered in Philly though. I guarantee you that.

[LynneSin]

33. Maybe we can meet-up in Philly - I've done most my campaigning in that city

If you can get high voter turnout in Philadelphia it doesn't matter what the rest of the state does - you're gonna win. Gore did that in 2000 and Rendell used the same exact plan in his primary race against Bob Casey Jr.

I use to campaign in Philly with another DUer Ramsey, but she's in Florida now. So I'm always happy to find new campaign friends!

[Barack_America]

38. Sure.

I'm with the Penn for Obama group. For the next week or so we're collecting signatures for the ballot. But after that we're planning huge voter registration drives, starting with door-to-door efforts in West Philly.

We have until March 24 to get people registered.

I'll change my settings so you can PM me, if you want.

[LynneSin]

39. Ok let me rephrase that - AFTER the primaries

I love the dogfight we have between Obama and Clinton but I have not jumped on either bandwagon. I'll support either of them 110% after the primaries but I ended up voting Joe Biden on Tuesday. I think both are excellent candidates but both have had ways that have disappointed me too.

[Orangepeel]

11. As a fellow Obama supporter, I say you're full of shit

[Eurobabe]

14. Agreed.

Now pass the popcorn please?

:popcorn:

[book_worm]

12. Did we have a competitive election in FL or MI?

[DJ13]

13. Are you aware that nationwide the vote totals between the two was within .5% on the 5th?

You must not be a very commited "Obama supporter" .

[Oregone]

16. This is a bit flawed thinking...

The primary contest didn't prove he has no appeal in those states. Rather, it proves that amongst the primary voters (democrats, sometimes indies), Hillary had *more* appeal or name recognition.

Obama still recieved more votes in those states than McCain (or another Republican) did when he won. When the general comes around, Its likely Obama will recieve his current votes AND what Hillary did. If you look, the both of them are individually mobilizing FAR more people than the republicans currently.

A lot more states will be in play and "swing" status than you think this time around, just based on primary turnout numbers.

[npincus]

17. Silly- blue states stay blue, and Obama can turn red to blue

or purple, at least. Hillary voters in NY and CA, etc. will vote for obama efore they'll vorte for McCain.

[harun]

21. I think Obama will win NY and CA and pick up some red states

The hard core red states hate McCain and won't even show up to vote for him. That is unless Hillary is running.

[Barack_America]

19. Michigan's turnout was so abysmal, that it cannot be counted.

The people simply did not speak there.

Florida may be a different story.

[Barack_America]

26. Also, neither MA, CA or TX are swing states. n/t

[cottonseed]

20. You're mixing up Primaries and Generals again. Tool.

nt

[Unsane]

25. Dumb.

[Obamaniac]

27. Get real!

If Obama wins 30 to 35 states and wins the majority of the popular vote against Clinton you don't think he should win?

Of course he should.

Obama has already won 16 primaries/caucuses to Clinton's 11 (13 if you count Michigan and Florida, which I don't). Obama and Hillary are essentially tied in the popular vote so far (slight advantage for Clinton: Hillary 50.2% to Obama's 49.8%). The next 11 states were tailor-made for Obama. If he should sweep them or win nine or ten and pull ahead in the popular vote, you don't think he should have a claim to the nomination?

Can you imagine Hillary winning only 16 out of 50 primaries/caucuses, Obama winning all the others; Obama beating Hillary in the popular vote AND STILL losing the nomination. Hillary's campaign would be a farce, her transformation as the George W. Bush of the Democratic Party would be complete.

Her candidacy wouldn't have an legitimacy.

[faithfulcitizen]

28. The only "swing states" to have contests are PA & OH. Confusing post...

There are a few states that you missed too.

[Bucky]

30. As an Obama supporter, I say Clinton is not a Hillbot

the immature brats who post on this board--whether they're being brats for Clinton or brats for Obama--do not in anyway represent the character or interests of their respective candidates.

I agree that if Obama loses the Ohio, Pennsylvania & Texas primaries, he probably won't win the nomination. But there's a whole system designed to play this out. If Democrats are just patient with the system and do their parts, the nomination won't be a loss for anyone--even the candidates who don't win it.

[bowens43]

31. That's ridiculous. nt

[RunningFromCongress]

32. No one "won" MI, Obama certainly didn't lose it.

I could almost see an argument where FL was a "loss" but MI can't even be considered a contest

[sandnsea]

34. He will carry her voters, she won't carry his

That's it, that's all.

[Zueda]

37. Clinton couldn't take MO...

Should she also be held to the same standard?