Washington Post: Hillary sees a chance in Virginia

[NJSecularist]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/02/06/ST2008020604537.html?hpid=topnews

Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, digging in for a delegate-by-delegate fight for the Democratic presidential nomination, returned to Washington yesterday with plans to make Tuesday's Virginia primary a major battleground.

Strategists in both campaigns had once regarded Obama (Ill.) as well-positioned to sweep Virginia, Maryland and the District in next week's first-ever regional primary. All three jurisdictions are rich in the African American, upper-income and independent voters who have sustained his campaign.

But advisers to Clinton (N.Y.) are now mapping out a strategy that does not exclude Maryland and the District but focuses heavily on fast-growing outer suburbs such as Prince William and Loudoun counties in Northern Virginia and the state's economically struggling rural southwest, where unemployment is high among white working-class voters.

Clinton, who is scheduled to meet with students at Washington-Lee High School in Arlington County this afternoon, said she is moving "full speed ahead" into the Washington region. Her appearance is part of increasingly frenetic campaigning by candidates in both parties in the area, where the first significant wave of votes since the inconclusive Super Tuesday primaries will be cast.

Obama and Clinton have committed to attending Saturday's Jefferson-Jackson Democratic dinner in Richmond. On the GOP side, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) are scheduled to attend the Conservative Political Action Conference today in the District. Romney is expected to appear at a Republican dinner in Baltimore County this evening.

But it is Virginia that is expected to be the most heavily contested turf over the next six days in what has been variously dubbed the Potomac, Chesapeake or Beltway primary.

I personally think she has a very uphill battle in Virginia, but we shall see.

[AX10]

1. kick

[southern_dem]

2. If she's willing to

spend the money it'll be competitive.

[Schema Thing]

3. This would be a great time for Webb to endorse.

Preferably Obama.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Webb endorsed Obama long ago.

[Barack_America]

12. Actually, I don't know if he has officially endorsed Obama...

Although with my own eyes and ears I have observed him acting as an Obama surrogate.

I'm not sure exactly what's going on there.

[Texas_Kat]

13. No, he hasn't

[Drunken Irishman]

15. Ok, he's thrown his "support" behind Obama.

Maybe it isn't official, though.

[Barack_America]

17. Yet he goes on Sunday shows as an Obama surrogate.

Really weird situation.

[Texas_Kat]

49. Until he endorses one or the other

He's not endorsed anyone. Is even THAT hard to understand?

[LostinVA]

25. No, Senator Webb has endorsed no one

[Zueda]

30. no but I seen his eyes light-up when asked about an Obama presidency. n/t

[bigtree]

5. way uphill. In my state of Md. Obama's in the doubles

go Hillary!!

[NJSecularist]

8. In the doubles?

Are there polls out in Maryland?

[bigtree]

16. I got it from an article in the Chicago Tribune today (good list of upcoming races)

Sizing up the Democratic race, Tad Devine, an expert on the party's nominating rules, told The New York Times: "One candidate or the other will try to show sustained momentum. Someone will try to sweep the mid-Atlantic states on Feb. 12 and then pick up Wisconsin a week later. If someone sweeps those states, that's one thing. But if they split, it continues the pendulum swing and Ohio-Texas becomes essentially a showdown day."

But first it's the Potomac Primary, where many analysts believe Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has the edge over Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.).

Virginia's Democratic primary rules allow independents to cast ballots, which could work in Obama's favor. Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine has endorsed Obama.

In Maryland, a recent poll gives Obama a double-digit lead. Michael Cryor, chairman of the Maryland Democratic Party, is neutral in the race, but he noted that Clinton has the endorsements of many party leaders, including Gov. Martin O'Malley and Sen. Barbara Mikulski. Obama, however, could run strongly in Baltimore, the Washington suburbs and many rural areas. Both candidates have started advertising and sending out mailings.

The city of Washington has a black majority, and Obama is likely to do well there.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/chi-next_wedfeb06,1,1704163.story?page=1&cset=true&ctrack=1

[stillrockin]

6. I'm in VA and voting for Obama.

[loveangelc]

31. how do you feel about virginia?

[Invidious]

7. Not a chance in Hell HRC wins VA. Count on it. n/t

[Skwmom]

32. I don't know. Republicans might vote for her now that their race

is all but over. Why wouldn't they try to have the Democrats nominate the weakest candidate?

[Benhurst]

39. Yeah, there's a lot of that done in open primaries. That's why I'm

always suspicious of those crossing over in them. Cynthia McKinney was defeated in a Georgia primary by Republicans crossing over.

[rodeodance]

43. They will both get some delegates

[underpants]

9. About Prince William county

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4455589&mesg_id=4456478

[Zueda]

10. The Clintons started the crap that's sending our jobs overseas!

They will not win here in VA!

[dmallind]

35. And yet "the Clintons" presided over 23 million new jobs

and a median income that increased in nominal and real terms.


Amazing how that happened what with "them" sending all the jobs overseas and all.

[Zueda]

52. How's it working out for us now?

[dmallind]

53. Are "The Clintons" in power now? For the last 7 years?

I mean I know there's a lag time and all, but come on blaming Clinton for today's economy is a stretch even for the Freeps let alone here.

[book_worm]

11. Well, I'm sure Obama will concentrate on those same counties.

[Alhena]

14. Romney's exit hurts her in Virginia ...

Virginia is an open primary which means Republicans can vote in it. And Virginia Republicans no longer have an active race to vote in, so at least some of them will likely vote to settle old scores with their old nemesis Hillary.

[Zueda]

19. LOL...Exactly what I told my Republican co-worker today...

He was for Romney...can't stand McCain and I told him that since McCain will win the R nomination he might as well vote for Obama now that Romeny is out...I think he agrees!

[Alhena]

21. Take him to the primary with you :)

[Zueda]

28. unfortunately he and I are in different precincts...

But I think I can get him there. My goal now is to see if I can convince him to get his Republican friends to follow suit.

[DUyellow]

20. that is true

[pdxmom]

33. Lots of Republicans that I know there are already talking Obama

over the Republican candidates. Romney was the only one they really talked about. With him out, I see a lot flipping over.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

18. Never count her out.

[DUyellow]

22. How did Webb get voted in Viringia? Anti WAR vote...

[Blue_State_Elitist]

23. Webb wasn't in the Senate for the IWR.

[DUyellow]

47. THE VOTERS, ANTI WAR VOTERS. He spoke out against the war

[LostinVA]

26. What??? Webb wasn't even in the Senate then

He was just elected last year.

[DUyellow]

48. THE VOTERS, ANTI WAR VOTERS. He spoke out against the war

[loveangelc]

24. why do you think it will be uphill for her in virginia?

just curious.

[LostinVA]

27. Open primaries

[NJSecularist]

29. Black population is very high in both Virginia and Maryland

And there is a very small Latino population in both states.

[loveangelc]

36. doesn't Ohio have a somewhat large black population in the cities?

why then does everyone say ohio is so uphill for obama? i dont get it.

[NJSecularist]

38. The suburns will be an uphill battle for him

But I don't think it is impossible for Obama to win there. Hillary just has alot of support there.

[loveangelc]

40. I hope he spends a lot of time in those areas..

[NJSecularist]

41. The thing that helps Obama in Ohio...

is that there is only a very small Latino population there... about 2%. By comparision, New York and New Jersey were close to 20% and California was 35%.

[Skwmom]

34. Of course she does now that Limbaugh is pushing her candidacy.

I wonder how many Republicans will try to mess with the VA vote?

[Perky]

37. She has absolutely no chance here...

Party leders and the Mayor of Richmond are backing Obama.


I have not seen a single mailer from Clinton or even a commerical


I have yet to see a single bumpertsticker.


Look, Northern Virginia is young and very affluent. Not alot of blue collar around here.


she has no big play here or in Richmond.


Norfolk...is very pro military but it has gone deep blue several times in a row now. I don't think she plays well there.



As for the rest of the state......She can have it.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

42. Obama will win, but closer than DC and MD

There's enough old ladies, blue-dog rednecks, and Latino and Asian voters north of Fredricksburg... (If it's an open primary, with Romney out now I'd expect a few of the uber-racists in Henrico county to cross-over to vote against Obama just for the practice, but I don't remember the set-up.)

Probably won't be a delegate blowout in VA like I expect in MD.

It will be interesting to see if she can get 25% of the black vote in PG county. (Baltimore will be more monolithic.)

[Perky]

44. She might win Gaitherburg Roanoke and Lynchburg

But I di not think she has a local opertaion in VA to speak of.

[rodeodance]

45. well, yah know by now--its all about delegates.

[Perky]

46. Yes it is,,,,ts is completely about delegates

[TexasObserver]

50. Translation: with the Republican race over, she has a chance

Throw in some more of Bill's race baiting, and she's got a shot at winning Virginia.

[Iceburg]

51. We all know who the race baiters are and we are going to call you out at every opportunity

Run out of women, GLBT people, old people, or Latinos to kick around tonight? Thought you would take another kick at Bill did ya? Well I am callin' you and your race baiting divisive preacher on it. GET LOST!