OK, I admit it. I am VERY impressed with Kerry's poll numbers vs *

[stopbush]

I supported Dean until the bitter end. I have been a big critic of Kerry, and beyond ABB haven't been exactly juiced by his candidacy. But I have to admit that today's poll numbers are impressive.

Granting the usual caveats that attend the fluidity of polls, it seems like Kerry has rocketed out of the box and is climbing like crazy. Having been through this particular rocket trip with the good doctor, I might normally feel skeptical. But this is Kerry directly up against bush with bushco directing all of their fire at Kerry...and Kerry is clobbering them!

I have to admit that I very much doubt if Dean or Edwards or Clark would have been at these numbers if they had gained the nomination.

Maybe 2004 actually IS all about electability.

[KissMyAsscroft]

1. Remember where Dean was in the polls a couple of months ago?

We still have 8 months. Dont get too excited.

[stopbush]

2. See my post. I addressed that issue. n/t

[movonne]

3. Lets hope this keeps up. I can't understand how anyone could vote

for bush.

[Hav]

4. .

Still many months to go and after all it will be the Electoral college that will decide.
I hope he will win.
What they have to do is counter every attempt of the Bush Admin that tries to portray what they have done in a good light. Whenever they come up with something like growing economy or steady leadership counter it with what everybody can see in reality.
When they talk about what they might have accomplished in the past then counter with things that do matter now and emphasize that it's not enough to look back when the current problems like unemployment are severe.

[H2O Man]

5. Keep this in mind:

There has not been a "bitter end." This is the beginning of a new day. It's a new season, and a new time. The Dean movement is a huge part of this. Kerry will understand the significance of this in November, when he wins by a surprisingly large margin over bush.

[Voltaire]

10. I think you are right

Kerry will destroy Bush in this election. Not even close. And I say that as a diehard Dean supporter. Bush has to defend his record at some point. That is game, set and match for us. Cuz you cannot defend a steaming pile of you know what.

[Raya]

15. Guy, this is pre-slime dump and dirty tricks that is coming, and coming ..

[Grown2Hate]

6. Just curious...

...but where are these polls numbers you're speaking of?  I
always have a HELL of a time finding official poll numbers to
take a look at.  Thanks for any help.

[sangh0]

7. try

www.pollingreport.com

[newyawker99]

19. Hi Grown2Hate!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Beetwasher]

8. I Don't Think A "Sitting President" Has Ever Been This Far Behind

at this point and won the election...Usually if they are going to pull it out, they are already on the upswing at this point...I could be wrong though...

[The Magistrate]

12. You Are Correct, Sir

Incumbents have been in the lead at this point and still lost, but when behind at this point they have not been known to catch up. The oft-cited lead of Gov. Dukakis was not over an incumbent President, but over a Vice-President, a very different kettle of fish. These numbers indicate a plurality of the people are already disinclined to endorse a further term for the reptile ensconced in the Oval Office today, and they are not likely to change their conclusions drawn from the last three and a half years over the next eight months.

"There will be a holiday in our street soon!"

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[UrbScotty]

9. I hope this means you're joining the Kerry crowd! (nt)

[Monte Carlo]

11. The Electibility is the foot in the door. What I'm hoping is...

... that once people begin to accept and learn about Kerry as the Democratic nominee for President, they'll like what they see. He's not perfect, but he's anything but under-qualified to beat Bush for the office in November. And I think people will take a broad look over his career history, with points emphasized by both himself and Bush and the ever-trustworthy U.S. national news media, and I hope that his image through the filter will be enough to counter that of George W. Bush. It's going to be tough, but I think Kerry is a solid Democrat with a great deal of political savvy. MA Democrats are tough.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

13. I've always thought the reason people thought Kerry was 'electable'

was that they saw him as the most qualified candidate to be President.

Just a thought.

[Raya]

17. Being QUALIFIED for the Job sometimes counts in the real world.

Shocked! Shocked!

[WiseMen]

14. "Electability" is NOT having to say you are sorry. Kerry is a Great Man

who has live a life of thoughtfull service, good and true. He is doing
fairly well because he is really prepared for the task of leadership
in almost every way that one can be prepared.

Folks, I am saying we need to disavow this “electability” label that the media was pinning on John Kerry because it is really a backhanded insult to the senator.

Great leaders rally their people to action through strength of purpose and character, NOT by being “electable.” John Kerry is a great leader and the pundits are using “electable” to diminish the senator and to explain in as meaningless a way as possible his unprecedented primary accomplishment.

We really want a Kerry landslide come November. But, hard thinking and hard work is the way to get there, not dependence on media stamp of approval. John will win in each of the swing states in the same way he won Iowa -- with grassroots town-to-town, house-to-house, hand-to-hand combat that ignored media predictions.

We cannot count on media assurances of “electability” or “momentum.” The media is not on our side.

[izzie]

16. Question? Did anyone see if the Dem numbers were up in these

state voting from the time before?

[Lexingtonian]

18. he's being quite the buzzsaw

Things won't always be this good, swing voters are going to step back and reevaluate things less emotionally during lulls. I think we'll see drooping to a tied state in polling for a while- but don't forget that Undecideds do break against the incumbent by 2:1 or 3:1 almost every time. Tied in the polling means Kerry wins if/when he shows serious signs of life.

Personally, I think Kerry will hold at 45% or above until July or so as Democrats become increasingly solidly unified, and then slowly creak upward to ~52% (ceiling 55%) on Election Day. All polls that I've seen are consistent with a fundamental electorate split that fits a continuing trend since 1998 or 1992. Right now we're at 51%-52% liberal-ish/ 45%-46% Republican/ ~3% Third Party. Republicans can really only win on a pretty massive turnout differential (they need 115% of ours). Not real likely, given their morale.

Their upper tiers are presently running scared or delusional- this election and person really stands to bust their power decisively. I bet they are looking over the numbers and the $150 million and don't really believe they're going to pull it off. But they're going to give Kerry all they can in the hope that he stumbles badly enough.

[mobuto]

20. Kerry's formula has been fascinating

I've never seen any politician do this - Kerry attacks Bush on absolutely every issue, every day. And every day he responds to the news and opposes Bush on something new, ensuring that he gets covered. Its a great strategy - the job of the opposition is first and foremost to oppose, and it saves on money - but I'm a little concerned that the formula might wear thin before the election. After all, it is still eight months away.

[sangh0]

21. Even more fascinating is how Kerry's attacks are sticking to Bush*

Moore and Clark raised the AWOL issue but it didn't seem to stick until Kerry raised it