All of us must now support the candidate we feel has the best odds of beating McCain.

[calteacherguy]

In my opinion, that is Obama because of his higher favorablity and proven ability to pull independent voters away from McCain.

Regardless of who you support, please do so only if you feel your candidate truly has the best chance of beating McCain. Everything else is secondary at this point.

[Hobarticus]

1. Yes...either way, just get the goddamned White House back

and I'll be happy.

[Donnachaidh]

2. That is EDWARDS.

:evilgrin:

[calteacherguy]

5. Perhaps you are right, but that is irrelevant now.

Edwards is not irrelevant...he has a great message. What's irrelevant is whether or not he has (had) the best chance of beating McCain.

[Inspired]

19. Yes, it is irrelevant. That is the problem. It always seemed irrelevant.

He was our best hope to beat Bush back in 2004, too. But it was irrelevant.

Will we ever learn?

[Deep13]

18. I know it is.

He was the only one who had a chance in the former Confederacy or in those square states out west. I have serious doubts that either O or HC can beat McCain.

[Catchawave]

33. Edwards was the only one to beat McCain on the head-to-heads...

until they took him off the polls. :cry: <----for what could have been.

[Fredda Weinberg]

3. HRC will have no trouble being the change candidate against McCain n/t

[Kahuna]

6. Woo boy! Where do I start? Hillary is Kerry redux. I voted for the war before

I voted against it. Do we really need to go down that road again? There are several other issues were Hillary and McCain (bosum buddies according to Bill) are in synch with.

[Deep13]

21. HC never voted against it.

HC will stand on the stage with the old warrior and state credibly that she is strong on defense. O's waffling--against the war when he did not have to make a real decision, but voting to fully fund it-- will make him look like an idiot.

You guys have fallen in love with a speaking voice. The Roves of the world will cream Obama.

[Kahuna]

24. And if she does what you say, she will have the exact same response

that Kerry had when he said it. Wavering indies and apathetic voters didn't vote for him. His poll numbers began to nosedive after that.

[flpoljunkie]

32. The occupation of Iraq will be off the table if it's McCain vs. Hillary as they both voted for it.

This is not what we as Democrats want.

[jillan]

4. That was Biden. But I agree - we need to focus on McCain.

[RiverStone]

7. Obama - unequivocally - has the best chance!

There is not even a shadow of doubt from this voter.

And for what ever polls are worth - Obama beats McCain head to head with greater percentages than Hillary.

[Deep13]

14. He wins in February.

My concern is how he will do in November. You base your lack of doubt on nothing.

[cyclezealot]

8. I fear and am ashamed to say, racism and sexism will win out.

Not that he was my first choice, but I think Edwards would be the stronger candidate. . Can a stalemated convention bring him back.?

[WilyWondr]

9. Here are a few hypothetical matchups

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html


I am sure the HRC supporters will point out how inaccurate it is.

[Deep13]

16. It's accurate now, before the R. vs. D. contest has even started. nt

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

10. I agree

Traditionally McCain has had high levels of independent support, when the independents are confronted with two militantly pro-war canidates they will likely support McCain.

Clinton is going to run in the general election on out-toughing John McCain, it will be a testosterone driven freakshow of epic proportion.

I got a call from the Clinton campaign a few months ago and the girl on the phone didn't miss a single terra related Bushism in her script.

[Deep13]

15. The Indies are notoriously flakey.

They will go with whoever looks better on TV and after the R's are done with him, it won't be O.

[Kahuna]

25. Where do you get your notions? It's kinda like you just pull arbitrary

words out of a bag that have no relation to the topic.

[Deep13]

27. 25 years of experience participating in electoral politics. nt

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

26. and Hillary will look great when

The Republicans dig up every woman Bill has fucked in the last 8 years

[Deep13]

28. The lesson of 1998 is "no one gives a shit about that." nt

[La Lioness Priyanka]

11. I think its hillary and your scare tactic wont work.

[Smarmie Doofus]

12. I think it's an open question. ( And a *good* one.)

Obama's done well so far and shows some promise of pulling indies on board.

OTOH, Clinton's had everything but the kitchen sink thrown at her over the years. A lot of it is her own doing ( or Bill's) but it stands to reason that they must be running out of ammo at this point. And she's still standing.

Obama has not been subjected to an onslaught of the kind that the GOP, and its allies in the corporate media , is capapble of launching . He's doing slightly better in one to one matchups vs. McCain than is Clinton but *only* slightly.

And this is *before* the inevitable swiftboating. It's difficult to know how well his popularity will hold up.

Don't misunderstand: I favor Obama. But the electability issue is not at all clear.

[Deep13]

13. The general campaign hasn't started yet, ...

...so you don't know what that will do to O's favorability. On the other hand, most people don't know much about HC except the character assasignation from RW assholes and DUers. Once the general campaign starts, she has nowhere to go but up. People who know HC like her. McCain will HAMMER Obama on his almost complete lack of experience. People will not trust a neophyte especially with a war going on and the economy on the rocks. Up until now the media has treated him with kid gloves. It is foolish, nay delusional, to think his positive ratings will stay anywhere near where they are now. Six months ago, HC was Ms. Inevitable. Right now O is riding high. In six months he will be on the receiving end of smear campaign. And you can bet the cars in church parking lots will have fliers warning people not to trust Barack Hussein Obama who renounced America's Christian identity and who doesn't salute the flag. I don't know anyone named Barack and I doubt many Midwesterners do either. Remember '04? All that shit will stick.

They will go with a pro like McCain even if they don't like him just to protect their jobs. That's how it always is. O talks about all the right things but he has not done any of them. McCain will paint him as a phony and he will be right to do so.

Look at Tuesday's results. Everything that was won was won fair and square. I am not suggesting otherwise. Nevertheless, doing well in a primary is not the same as doing well for the general. (Isn't that right, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore and Kerry?) Most of those square, westerm states are very red, caucus states. The enthusiastic caucus goers and the A.B.C. voters packed the halls. In November those white men will be voting for McCain.

And suppose O does get elected. It isn't enough if his term is not successful. True, that is a guess, but it is one based on his junior position. We cannot let him wreck the party with the label of incompetence the way Jimmy Carter did. We did not recover from that until the 1990s and even then the recovery was limited. The default position of most of the country is Republican. They only vote Democrat if there is a compelling reason to do it.

So I think your coronation of Sen. Obama is a bit premature and based on a lack of political experience. I have been doing this and watching closely for going on 25 years now. I know what can and is likely to happen. I knew Al Gore was going to lose the moment he conceded that Bush was qualified for the office (thereby surrendering the main issue). I knew Kerry was going to lose, well, for a lot of reasons. Frankly, I am not confident that either candidate can beat McCain. Really, our best shot was Edwards.

HC has been closely involved with two previous national campaign as well as two US Senate campaigns in her own right. All four were successful. She can demonstrate that she can fix this country the way Bill did after the last Bush. She can improve her standing by instilling confidence. People vote their wallet. If they think HC can make them more secure in their jobs etc., that's what they will do. By October, "Yes we can" (or its eventual successor slogan) is going to sound pretty hollow, especially when the R's paint him as some kind of impractical, idealistic weirdo.

[Smarmie Doofus]

34. Them's good points but don't over-reach:

>>>I knew Al Gore was going to lose the moment he conceded that Bush was qualified for the office (thereby surrendering the main issue).>>>>

First: he didn't lose. ( The *election*, anyway.)

Second: there were many, many reasons why the race was as close as it was; this wasn't one of them... with all due respect.

Also, even though I agree for the most part with your analysis, Obama's aleged lack of experience may contrast favorably against a 72 y.o. tired... *really* tired.... old pro selling the same old same old. In a way that Hillary's triangulating and calculating will not.

There are too many known unknowns at this point. ( Thank you D. Rumsfeld)

[Deep13]

35. That Gore was cheated is an academic point.

He never took office. In our system, that means he lost.

There were other reasons why AG did not do well of course. Failure to point out W's painful imbecility was a big one.

[mtnsnake]

17. I think Hillary has the best chance vs McCain. I think Obama would have matched up well against Mitt

Romney

[niceypoo]

20. A moldy piece of cheese could beat McCain

McCain is running as a Bush clone who wants to stay in Iraq for 1000 years.

Do the math.

[Deep13]

22. That is never the case for us.

There have been times when the R's were unbeatable (1972, 1980, 1984, 1988) but we will never be. The conservative nature of the American public, the advantage the R's have in red-state electors and the hawkishness of the corporate media give the R's a built in advantage.

When McC. starts talking about god, patriotism, the flag and all that stuff, the South and the West and some of the Midwest will eat it right up.

[OneBlueSky]

36. don't be so sure . . . after the nominations are decided, I have a hunch that . . .

neither Clinton nor Obama will have an easy time in the general election . . . in fact, I doubt that either can beat McCain . . .

Republicans know how to fight dirty and, more importantly, they know how to rig elections . . . they did it in 2000, they did it in 2004, and they'll do it in 2008 . . . they have the means, the motive, and the opportunity, so what's to stop them? . . . their conscience? . . . :sarcasm:

[MonkeyFunk]

23. ok

I'm already supporting her.

[calico1]

29. This type of post will NOT get me

to support Obama. You and other Obama supporters who do this kind of thing need to stop treating the rest of us as if we didn't think out our decision to support someone else or like we are stupid. It's offensive and won't work to get support for Obama. It does the opposite for me.

[hill08]

30. from statistical point of view

the best bet is Hillary. There is not much volatility in her election performance despite all the negative press whereas Obama can't even win with all the media and celebrity support.

[mondo joe]

31. I support Clinton, who I believe can beat McCain. I'm not ready to vote for your candidate

just because you feel he has the best odds.

Frankly, there are times when I barely care if it's Obama or McCain if those are my only choices.