Super Tuesday Result: de-facto election of President Obama.

[Laelth]

Please be patient and hear me out before responding. I know that my subject line is provocative, and I mean no offense.

This past week has been absolutely amazing from a political perspective. John Edwards (whom I supported) went on a massive fund-raising spree right before "suspending" his campaign. Now I see that Hillary is conducting her own urgent fund-raising spree, and I learn that her campaign finances are, in fact, in serious trouble. One can't help but wonder whether she plans to "suspend" her campaign soon, as did Edwards. Hillary had to make a $5 million loan to her own campaign in January, while Obama has $20 million on hand, and he's raising money at a rate with which Hillary can not compete. In many ways, it looks like we now have our nominee.

And let me apologize, in advance, to those who feel cheated and wonder why we even bother having elections when half of America doesn't get to vote. My only response is this: Sorry, I don't make the rules. I'm just calling it as I see it, and this is what I see. It looks to me like Obama will be our nominee, and it also looks to me like Hillary knows it.

Then on the Republican side, I see that Romney has "suspended" his campaign, effectively giving the nomination to McCain. Romney's pulling out tells me that the money Republics (the true core constituency of GWB and the people who really run the Republic Party) see no hope of winning in the GE. They're cutting their losses. They've decided to give McCain the nod, knowing he can't win, just as they gave Bob Dole the nod in 1996. McCain is old and tired. He doesn't look good on TV, and as sad as it may be, the American political scene is driven by image. McCain can not win. He lost the Republic nomination to Bush 43 in 2000 just as Dole lost the nomination to Bush 41 in 1988. McCain is a loser, and he'll get thumped in the GE. The money Republics know this, it seems, and I sense that McCain is no more than token opposition.

So what happened? What exactly caused this dramatic shift in the political landscape? My answer: Super Tuesday. Obama has proven that he can win some key red states. Consider the case of my own home state of Georgia. Of a total population of 9,363,941, and a voting-age population of 6,910,600, fully two million people turned out to vote in the Georgia primary (an unprecedented 29% of the voting-age population). When the combined totals of votes cast for all Democrats is compared to the total votes cast for all Republics, you see the following:

1,046,485 D
954,462 R

Of those million+ votes for Democrats, 700,366 (or 67%) voted for Obama.

Source: CNN
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080205

Statistical data above here: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/13000.html

The money Republics know that they can not win the general if they can't win Georgia. It's that simple, and all the evidence I see at the moment leads me to believe Obama can win here. It may be that both Hillary and Romney also see the writing on the wall. They might be trying to cut the best deal possible for an honorable (and cost-effective) exit from the campaign.

If I am wrong, I'm wrong. I've certainly been wrong before, but if I am right, remember that you were here and that you were a part of it at Democratic Underground, in early February 2008, when Barack Obama was (de-facto) elected President of the United States.

:dem:

-Laelth

[juajen]

1. Interesting. I have a question. Was that an open primary in your state?

IOW, could republicans cross over. If I remember correctly, this is exactly how Cynthia McKinney lost her election in Georgia. Am I right?

P.S. Intended or not, I and many, many other Clinton supporters are truly offended. He won very small states, most of them caucuses, which I think have also been infiltrated by cross-overs out to make mischief. Go and read the statistics from California and you might change your mind. I mean the nitty-gritty stats, like who voted for who and why. Please, get back to me. As California goes, well, you know the rest. She's already won Florida, challenged or not, and Ohio is just ahead. She's not backing down.

[Laelth]

3. Georgia's primary is open.

But I see no evidence of a significant cross-over vote here. I think it's fair to say that the Rupublics hate Hillary and Obama almost equally. There would be little value in crossing-over that I can see.

As for Cynthia McKinney, her successor has a brilliantly liberal record, and if the Rupublics crossed-over to defeat her policy positions, they failed miserably. I think it's more likely that McKinney offended the strong Jewish community in her district and that their influence caused her defeat, but I don't live in her district, and I would hesitate to offer a stronger opinion about that.

-Laelth

[Laelth]

5. Again, I did not intend to offend Hillary supporters.

I deeply admire Hillary, and I will vote for her in November if she's our nominee.

But ... I don't think there's a chance Obama will lose CA or any other blue state that Kerry won in 2004.

Allow me to quote Hawaii Hiker from this thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4446393#4446541

No Democrat will lose California - it absolutely will not happen

There is a better chance of Shaquille O'Neal playing for the New England Patriots next year than a Republican winning CA. in November....

Obama almost had more votes than McCain & Romney COMBINED yesterday & he was second to Clinton....

Hell, Paris Hilton would probably win California....

-Laelth

[Adelante]

37. Republicans made up 4% of the vote and had no impact

Democrats voted 65% for Obama and 34% for Clinton; Independents voted similarly.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#GADEM

[Mojorabbit]

2. Very interesting post

I'll bookmark it to see if your words turn out to be prescient. :)

[Laelth]

7. Predicting the future is an imprecise art.

That why I lose some cases (being an attorney), but most of my clients ask me to predict the future for them, and I am, I hope, pretty good at it. Clients typically ask, "If I do X, what will happen? Or, what if I do Y?" After telling them that they're screwn either way, they finally ask, "Well, what should I do?" Then I earn some money and hope the advice I give is good.

In this case, my opinion is worth exactly what you paid for it.

:toast:

-Laelth

[FlyingSquirrel]

4. Not so sure about what Romney's exit does

He was splitting the religious vote with Huckabee. This could give ol' Huck a boost.

[Laelth]

45. I don't think Huck will last much longer.

His finances are in the pits too, and he is way behind McCain in delegates.

-Laelth

[scheming daemons]

6. The bettors in the prediction markets agree with you...

...Hillary was trading at 61 and Obama at 39 this past Sunday.

Now... Obama is trading at 57 and Hillary is trading at 43.


This is people putting real money on the line... not their wishes, but their expectations.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

8. Darl'in GA is a red state with an OPEN Primary and...

a win in a red state primary is not a win in the General Election

[Laelth]

9. I love it when you call me Darl'in.

:blush:

I supported Edwards. I am now suspicious of desperate-sounding fund-raising drives. Still a little bitter. Can ya tell?

:toast:

-Laelth


Edit:Laelth--corrected awkward redundancy.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

11. ahhh yes, i feel your pain and i absolutely agree with much of what you're saying....

and i think you know what part that be. ;-)

mr edwards is a fine man who would have made a great president. i donated to his campaign twice and if he hadn't dropped out, he would have had my vote in the GE.

i take solace in the knowing that a Dem will be in the White House come Jan 21st

:hug:

[Dawgs]

35. No offense, but I live in Georgia, and Obama can most certainly win here.

We're not all racist Republicans.

[jgraz]

10. Never underestimate the Democratic Party's ability to fuck itself over.

If there's some way to nominate the least-electable candidate, they will do it.

[Big Blue Marble]

18. I agree with you on the Democratic Party's ability to sabotage itself.

And I love your sig line! What a great sense of humor.

[jgraz]

19. Just make sure I don't have to change my sig again

;)

[Big Blue Marble]

25. I am working on it that is for sure.

Cause I bet if you have to change again, your % will drop even lower.

[Labors of Hercules]

43. I'm gonna bet it'd drop to 51%....

That's the way it is with us Edwards/Obama peeps... Did I get it right gratz? :hi:

[Laelth]

27. You have a point.

The immortal words of Will Rogers come to mind.

"I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat."

I keep hoping we'll do better.

:dem:

-Laelth

[ShadowLiberal]

12. I must disagree on both counts, the primary/GE aren't locked up yet, in fact I think we're screwed

I'm an Obama supporter (and a very pessimistic person I'll admit) and I must strongly disagree with you.

First of all you mention that Hillary is broke and can't keep up with Obama, are you aware that it was announced today that Hillary has raised a bit over 7 million dollars so far this month? (most of it after super Tuesday). Also the Hillary campaign is now airing ads in places like Nebraska, and Texas, while it's been announced no one is going without pay on her staff. She's not broke yet, didn't you see the topics where people were wondering if the bad fund raising news was all a ploy to get her supporters to donate?

Second, I disagree with you that the nomination is locked up for Obama. The demographics in Texas and Ohio really don't favor him, and Hillary is almost definitely going to stay in until those states vote. Obama just doesn't do well among the poor, and among Hispanics. The poorer people in Ohio/Texas, and Hispanics in Texas could doom him if he can't grow his support in those areas.

Third, the fact that McCain has the republican nomination locked up now leaves the door open for republicans to switch their party registration (temporarily at least) to try to sabotage us in the general election by nominating whoever they think is the easier to beat. Most republicans don't think that Obama is the easiest to beat, they think it's Hillary. It's true though that some of them may be tempted to vote for Obama if they like the guy, because he does have support among some republicans who are dissatisfied with Bush and the way their party has changed lately.

As for the general election being a lock for us and the republicans know it, that's just plain wrong. McCain is their best shot at winning it, all of the reasons that extreme conservatives hate him will help him in a general election because he'll appeal to independents more for that reason. Also the latest general election match up polls show Obama with a slim 2 point lead over McCain, and McCain with a 4 point lead over Hillary, hardly the numbers you'd see in an election where one party has it in the bag.

I know it may seem early for me to be saying this, but I've had a dreadful fear for over a year that 2008 will be remembered either as the year the democrats screwed up REALLY badly by nominating the wrong person (Hillary in my mind), or as the year that the republicans pulled off a stunning Harry Truman style 1948 victory (where Truman not only won an election in which he was almost universally regarded as unelectable in a general election, and where the media also pushed the story that it was a lock for the GOP to win the White House, with two other democrats on the ticket at that. At the same time the democrats also took back both the house and senate when Truman painted the GOP controlled congress as a do nothing congress, can you name a single accomplishment of the democratic controlled congress today other then not being another Bush rubber stamp congress?).

[Laelth]

15. Bush predicted Hillary would win the nomination ...

... and then lose in the general. That may very well happen. For all I know, Bush may simply refuse to step down next year, and the entire election may be moot. I share your fears and more.

But the theory I advance above is the only one that's working for me at the moment. It's the only one that makes the pieces of this puzzle fit together. Of course, things could change. I could also just be completely wrong. Under the circumstances, though, I hope I'm right.

Thanks for the reply.

:patriot:

-Laelth

[Big Blue Marble]

20. Do you think that her recent proven ability to raise money

on the internet changes your analysis? My sense is many of the party insiders see it like you do.
He has proven his ability to win in non-traditional states. He has the ability to draw independents.
He has even drawn the interest of a lot of Republicans. He certainly can raise money.
And he has coattails.

To these insiders, he is the candidate that comes along once in a generation. But Hillary
is blocking their ability to coalesce around the ideal candidate.

And nobody knows how to move beyond her.

[Laelth]

28. I fear that her ego will prevent her from bowing out.

Of course, I would have said the same for John Edwards. Hillary, however, still has more delegates, and has a much better shot than Edwards did.

I suspect Hillary knows, though, that her funding is drying up. I can't verify this statistic, but I saw a thread here that indicated that 70% of Hillary's donors are maxed out. Presumably, fewer than 10% of Obama's donors are maxed out. Regardless, Obama has an enormous fund-raising edge at the moment.

See this thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4460606

Not only the party insiders but the betting money agrees (see post by scheming daemons above). If I am right, the only remaining questions are what kind of deal can Hillary cut before she exits and how much damage will she inflict upon the party before she does?

:patriot:

-Laelth


Edit:Laelth--sloppy error correction.

[Laelth]

31. If you're interested ...

I found this analysis instructive:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/7/165217/8262/388/452179

Of course, I like number-crunching, and this blog entry was widely derided here as spin. It is offered for whatever value you might find in it.

:toast:

-Laelth

[Whisp]

13. gawd of all gawds, make it so. not another Clinton.

I beg you on my fat knees, my skinny knees, tell me the knees I need.

[Big Blue Marble]

21. I love it.

:rofl:

[cooolandrew]

14. Barack demonstrates he has checks and balance given the econmy he is a wise choice.

[Laelth]

53. He wasn't my first choice.

But I am convinced that 16 years of hate radio have killed the Clinton brand. Obama is our best chance to win in the GE, and that's what matters most.

:toast:

-Laelth

[Tatiana]

16. And people think I am crazy when I say we can win Georgia! n/t

[Laelth]

17. I would have said you were crazy 3 days ago.

The Georgia primary of 2008 was a momentous event in state history. It may take us a while to realize just how significant it was.

:dem:

-Laelth

[grantcart]

22. You missed a key indicator

I support Obama and my guy always goes south lol

[jgraz]

23. Right there with ya

Check the sig

[grantcart]

24. yeah i went to a non candidate sig after Edwards

[Leopolds Ghost]

26. I remember being part of DU in early 2008 when it happened. There I was...Mother of God..there I am.

Uh, clearly I was a victim of the blog explosion...a natural street freak just eating whatever came by. :smoke:

[Laelth]

32. LOL

Nice. :toast:

-Laelth

[Coexist]

29. Something I have been pondering:

A larger strategy by the Conservatives - give it to McCain. The economy is in the toilet for years to come - as long as they don't support him, their hands are clean.

- Four years of McCain in charge of an economic disaster - they get that monkey off their back.

- Four years of Obama/Clinton in charge of an economic disaster - they get that monkey off their back.

Encourage their base on Wall Street, multi-nationals, plunge protection team, bankers (and whomever else) to do just enough to limp by, but poorly enough to keep the "lagging economy" in the news cycle, showing how these Dems/Moderates can't run our country.

Fight hard enough to keep real legislation out of the picture. If Obama wins, the DLC might help them, out of spite - due to his taking away their 'right' to shape the Democratic party. If Clinton wins, there is enough anti-Clinton sentiment going around those chambers to fill an ocean.

Get their boy Romney out of this primary early - so he looks like a gracious man, always putting party and country before ambition. Groom him for four years. Have a grateful nation come to their senses and give the conservatives back the steering wheel.

What do you think?

(edited for stupid spelling mistake!)

[Laelth]

30. I definitely think we have not seen the last of Romney.

And I definitely think the Money Republics are hedging their bets and cutting their losses. But they don't seem to believe that McCain can win. George Will (whom I loathe) remarked in an editorial this morning that last week "two more House Republicans--the total is now 28--announced their retirements, evidence that Republicans do not expect soon to end their minority status."

Looks to me like the Republics are preparing for a Democratic landslide.

But who knows? :shrug:

-Laelth

[BenDavid]

33. I guess if chit like this helps you get through the day then peace

unto you.

[Laelth]

38. I respect your support for Hillary.

I appreciate the respect you have shown to those who support Edwards (whom I supported). In fact, I can't help but to see patterns and make predictions. Perhaps that does get me through the day.

:toast:

-Laelth

[Dawgs]

34. Nice post. As a fellow Georgia resident I agree that Obama can win here.

[Laelth]

46. I have always believed Georgia, at its best, is truly moderate.

Perhaps it's true ... once again.

:dem:

-Laelth

[TexasObserver]

36. Awesome analysis by you. And you're right about the loans.

When a campaign figure that is not as rich as Romney (Clinton) puts in a bunch of money as a loan, they know that there are only two ways of getting the money back. Either you get it back right away, by appealing to supporters to dig deeper, or you have to reach a whole new group of contributors on the strength of winning big.

Hillary had counted on surging into the lead and using that to expand her contributor base. When that failed to happen, she went to Plan B - disclosure of the loan and a plea to the loyal base to raise the money to pay back the loan.

I do not see how she can raise enough money between now and Pennsylvania to continue to compete, unless she leaves her $5 million in, and kicks in more of her own money.

[Laelth]

44. Thanks.

Love your handle, BTW. I really enjoyed reading that rag when I lived in TX. When I lived there, The Texas Observer was the only honest news and editorial source in the state. I doubt much has changed.

:toast:

-Laelth

[TexasObserver]

48. Ronnie Dugger, Molly Ivins, Jim Hightower - all old buds

Love 'em. Loved 'em.

[Laelth]

49. I lived in Fort Worth ...

... while Molly was on staff at the Star Telegram. I treasured every word she ever wrote. She is deeply, and rightly, missed. Nothing but good things to say about Dugger and Hightower.

:toast:

-Laelth

[TexasObserver]

50. Molly wrote a scathing article about Hillary that was on target.

Did you read it?

[Laelth]

51. I've seen it quoted here.

I don't remember reading that one in its entirety. I have no doubt that Molly was right on target, as usual.

-Laelth

[ACanadianLiberal]

39. Winning Red State Caususes = WINNING RED STATES????

Was there any DEM candidate who won red state in the party nomination and lost the GE?

[Laelth]

40. Welcome to DU!

When Democrats get more votes (as a whole) than Republics do (as a whole), and when turnout in a primary is at a record high, I think there's a good argument to be made that the Democratic nominee can win the state in the general election. High turnout usually favors Democrats. Obama has shown he can create that kind of enthusiasm.

:dem:

-Laelth

[TheDeathadder]

41. her finances are in fact not in trouble

she needed the loan in the short term to stay competative with Obama's money. Money wise she's fine, if we're going on facts.

[Laelth]

42. I'm interested in any facts you have to offer. n/t

:patriot:

-Laelth

[Laelth]

47. Last kick. n/t

:dem:

-Laelth

[dailykoff]

52. From the perspective of Super Saturday,

I'd have to say you called it right.

:kick: