John Kerry won every state Obama has won

[jackson_dem]

Except for South Carolina. There is a myth here which brilliantly turns Obama's success in the states with the highest proportion of DLC kind of Democrats into a strength. The theory is if Obama won Idaho and Utah in the primaries he will do so in the general. Too bad John Kerry existed. Kerry won red states before he lost them. Winning Democratic votes, even Al From Democrats, in primaries suggests nothing about winning independent and Republican votes in those states in the general. Both candidates will win the Democratic vote in Idaho and Utah. Both will lose the rethug and indie vote in those states as well in the general.

Here are Kerry's wins while the race was still competitive (it ended on Super Tuesday in March):

Iowa, New Hampshire, Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Michigan, Washington, Maine, Tennessee, Virginia, DC, Nevada, Wisconsin, Hawaii, Idaho, Utah, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachussetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, and Rhode Island.

The only states he lost during this time were South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Vermont. This was not exactly a prelude to a Kerry landslide in November...

[angie_love]

1. Dude he also won NY, MA, AZ all the ones Hillary won

Does that mean she can't win too?

[jackson_dem]

8. That means Kerry should have won in a landslide

The argument post-Obama's DLC dominance is that his red state wins show he can win those states in the general. It also assumes Obama will hold onto all the Kerry states against McCain, a popular candidate who won blue states in his primaries. Kerry won red states, blue states, and swing states. If Obamites are right Kerry should have won in a landslide.

[JVS]

2. Didn't Kerry lose Iowa?

[JI7]

4. no

at least not in the primary.

[MonkeyFunk]

5. No

he won Iowa. It was pretty big news, as I recall.

[JVS]

7. Oh wait, I thought you guys were talking about the GE and not the primary.

Nevermind.

[LordJFT]

3. Kerry didn't have anywhere near the # of independents and rethugs that Obama's getting

[JackRiddler]

6. Um, when you call Obama voters rethugs...

are you saying it's a good thing or a bad thing.

Don't insult your candidate's voters - use neutral language.

[LordJFT]

10. it's a bad thing that they were republicans, but a great thing that they're going over to obama

but I will try to use more neutral language in the future

[jackson_dem]

11. Kerry won the independent vote in the general

He didn't do well among rethugs but no one seriously expects Obama to get beyond 15% of rethugs in the general, and even that would be under the most favorable of scenarios.

[TwilightGardener]

21. Really, we just have to do a little better than Kerry in the swing states, while

keeping our usual states. Look at the excitement and interest in Obama's candidacy--did Kerry have that going for him? I don't remember it, if he did.

[jackson_dem]

22. Kerry also didn't lose the Democratic primary popular vote nationally

The excitement/interest applies to Hillary too.

[TwilightGardener]

24. I think it applies to her as well, I agree. Just comparing Kerry and Obama.

[TwilightGardener]

9. The goal is really purple states, like Colorado and Iowa and New Mexico and Arizona.

Look at the turnouts/demographics there for a better picture--the DNC sure is. The only thing that Obama winning big in the reddest/rural states proves is that people there like him more than her--not necessarily that those places will swing our way. It's more of an indicator of who might do better, among certain types of voters, in a general election matchup, rather than a predictor of winning those states.

[jackson_dem]

12. That isn't what the spin has been since Super Tuesday

The spin is that DLC Democrats loving Obama shows he will win red states in the general. Obama may very well have more crossover appeal than Hillary but the "he won DLC states big!" argument is ludicrous. He also lost most blue states, including all the big ones except his home state.

[TwilightGardener]

18. I don't think he'll lose any big blue states--it's not going to happen.

I do think he'll flip some purples, and if we're lucky, a red.

[jackson_dem]

23. We can't discount McCain. He may win some blue states

[Capn Sunshine]

13. Apples and oranges.

Maybe you haven't noticed, we're turning out HUGE numbers nationwide. About 30% more than the last go-round.

With the far right nuts sitting it out, we're going to score an impressive victory.

Unless Hillary is the nominee, then the far right won't be sitting it out any more.

[jackson_dem]

16. The far right will vote like they do every year

If Obama is the nominee the rethugs will finally go after him and his negatives will rise as fast as Kerry's did...

[TwilightGardener]

19. So?

[Yossariant]

14. LOL! You guys get more and more desperate. Kerry won 46 states.

[jackson_dem]

15. And only 21 in the general. Thanks for making the point

[Tennessee Gal]

20. Excellent points.

And you are right about Republicans going after Obama. He ain't seen nothing yet and he has no experience handling it.

Hillary Clinton has, as she has said, taken this incoming fire for 15 years or more. She’s had her patriotism questioned, her sexuality questioned, been accused of being a murderer, been accused of much more and yet she’s still strongly contending for the Democratic nomination for President.

She’s tougher than boot leather while having a human side. Those are assets that a Democratic candidate needs. Hillary Clinton has developed thick skin and the ability to remain calm in campaign combat. Yet, she also knows how to listen to the American people.

[johnnydrama]

25. no offense

but that's the dumbest analogy ever.

Here's what happened on Super Tuesday

Kerry Edwards

CA: 64-20
CT 58-24
GA 47-42
MD 60-26
MA 72-18
MN 51-27
NY 61-20
OH 52-34
RI 71-19

Before Super Tuesday Kerry won AZ by 16, DE by 40, MO by 26, NM by 21, ND by 27, VA by 25...

Do i need to go on? What about the 2004 primaries looks anything like the 2008 primaries?

The race was over in January and we all knew it was.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

17. let's not forget the Diebold and Blackwell effect and voter suppression in Ohio in 04