has ANYONE found ANY reputable polls w/ HRC STRONGER against McCain than Obama?

[cloudythescribbler]

I have already posted several polls cited by Nicholas Kristof in the NY TIMES and seen yet several others cited by Obama partisans (like myself) on DU -- BUT NO POLLS SHOWING THE CONTRARY FROM ANY OF THE MANY HILLARY SUPPORTERS FILLING THE BOARD WITH MEMES ABOUT "OBAMA CULTISM"

[John Q. Citizen]

1. No. I haven't seen one poll anywhere where Hill runs stronger against McCain , than Obama

My guess is if there were any, anywhere, that one of the Hill supportes would have certainly posted it.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

2. Little while until November.

Those head to head match up polls mean nothing.

[Lucinda]

4. Yup. The general is a whole other universe entirely.

[papau]

3. LA Time 1/18 and 19 2008 of registered voters has Hill doing better against Mc than Obama

________________________________________
White House 2008: General Election See also: Rating the contenders

________________________________________
Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. Jan. 18-22, 2008. N=approx. 650 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.
.
"If the November 2008 general election for president were being held today and the choices were , the Democrat, and , the Republican, for whom would you vote: or , or would you vote for a candidate from some other party?" Names rotated. Results include leaners.
.
John McCain (R) Hillar Clinton (D) Other Unsure
...............................................................
1/18-22/08......42...........46.................5...........7

John McCain (R) Barac Obama (D) Other Unsure
................................................
1/18-22/08......42...........41...................5......----12

[cloudythescribbler]

5. Is Jan 19 -- not only before Tsunami Tues but also S Carolina, the MOST recent like this?

[papau]

9. The point of Obama playing the race card was a landslide in SC to change polls - and it worked

B?y "playing the race card" I am referring to pretending the Clinton's were racists or insensitive via a civics lesson comment that Presidents are important to getting legislation through Congress and signed into law - I am sure you recall the race card "MLK comment" and screams that her supporters were using "code words" to insult blacks.

This is the same way Obama beat Hynes in the 2004 primary - but he calls the process not playing the race car - it is playing the race card to solidify the base by claiming the other side is playing the race card.

MSNBC has adopted Obama's language and now says Obama was effective in solidifying his base - LOL - I do love the media and how Obama supporters can be convinced up is down so as to defend/praise Obama.

[cloudythescribbler]

6. For general info -- here's the WHOLE CHART (6 national polls) of recent runs against McCain

Note that ALL these polls have been taken Jan 29 or more recently.

I note that the Hillary Clinton folk are somehow mum on this. Some just dismiss "polls" in general, while other simply ignore ignore ignore.

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Election 2008 National Head-to-Head Polls

John McCain (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D)
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Clinton (D) Spread
AVG 01/29 to 02/04 - 46.7% 45.3% McCain +1.4%

Time 02/01-02/04 958 LV 46% 46% Tie

CNN 2/01-2/03974 RV 47% 50% Clinton +3%

Cook/RT Strategies 01/31 - 02/02 855 RV 45% 41% McCain +4%

ABC/Wash Post 01/30 - 02/01 1249 A 49% 46% McCain +3%

FOX News 01/30 - 01/31 900 RV 45% 44% McCain +1%

NPR 01/29 - 01/31 1000 LV 48% 45% McCain +3%




John McCain (R) vs. Barack Obama (D)
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 01/29 to 02/04 - 44.2% 47.5% Obama +3.3%

Time 02/01 - 02/04 958 LV 41% 48% Obama +7%

CNN 02/01 - 02/03 974 RV 44% 52% Obama +8%

Cook/RT Strategies 01/31 - 02/02 855 RV 43% 45% Obama +2%

ABC/Wash Post 01/30 - 02/01 1249 A 46% 49% Obama +3%

FOX News 01/30 - 01/31 900 RV 43% 44% Obama +1%

NPR 01/29 - 01/31 1000 LV 48% 47% McCain +1%

[hill08]

7. those

polls have been so accurate lately, haven't they? How can you rely on polls conducted 9 months away from the election?

[cloudythescribbler]

8. the CONSENSUS of major polls is usually right, especially if sustained over time

although surely a lot could change in 9 months. I could see changes that might make Obama suddenly much less popular (as happened with Dukakis). What changes are apt to make Hillary suddenly MORE popular? And it should be noted that LOSS of popularity is quite possible for ANYONE, even if they are well-known, as with Kerry, Dukakis, Mondale (on taxes), McGovern, etc.

One of the consistent memes is that, because Obama is less well-known ("not vetted") there is a significantly greater chance of a downslide for him -- it is indeed one of the MAIN arguments used against Obama. It speaks to electability, yet the signs that Obama is MORE electable are simply evaded or denied, as here.

[Tom Rinaldo]

10. The next nine months are not your average nine months

You could ask Governor Dukakis about that some time. Nine months before the General Election most of the press he was receiving talked about "the Massachusetts miracle":

"In Spring, 1988, the upcoming presidential general election looked grim for Vice President George Bush. Seeking to succeed his popular predecessor, Ronald Reagan, Bush appeared on the surface to be a long shot. No sitting vice president since Martin Van Buren in 1836 had been elected in his own right short of presidential assassination or death.

Bush's problem was more than historical precedent, though. As a man, he inspired little public confidence. Bush was a cautious politician with little vision. Even conservatives in his own party never fully trusted the Texas man. He was too moderate, too patrician, and too boring for their tastes.

Facing him was a Democratic opponent, Governor Michael Dukakis, who looked very strong. Dukakis had pulled off what was being called the "Massachusetts Miracle," a stunning revival of economic fortunes in a liberal state previously derided as "Tax-achusetts." Early national public opinion polls showed Dukakis with a 17 percentage point lead over Bush. Some Democrats gleefully debated who would earn Cabinet positions in a Dukakis White House.

Below the surface of Dukakis' advantage over Bush, however, lay a volatile public that would upset the conventional campaign wisdom and usher in a surprise outcome. Unbeknownst to outside observers, Bush operatives had organized a series of focus groups in Paramus, New Jersey with so-called Reagan Democrats. These small group discussions with swing voters were designed to test possible Bush campaign messages.

At the beginning of the conversations, group participants held a generally favorable view of Dukakis, based on his demonstrated leadership and accomplishments in Massachusetts. Slowly, though, voter sentiments turned more negative as key information uncovered by Bush operatives was revealed. How would you feel, the moderator asked, if you knew that as governor of Massachusetts, Dukakis had vetoed legislation requiring teachers to say the Pledge of Allegiance at the beginning of the school day? Not so good, came the group reply...."
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