Will the GOP nomination being settled help Obama?

[BL611]

While it seems that the emerging conventional wisdom from the media is that this thing is going to head to the convention, I think they are overlooking how McCain's seeming wrapping up of the nom will play into the Democratic race. Are the Democrats really going to want to take this race to the convention, while the Republican nominee has a 4 month head start campaigning for the general?

It seems that in the races over the next few weeks Obama has a clear advantage and Hillary's looking at best picking off one or two of the states. I think it is quite possible that by the time we get to March 4, Democrats will be faced with the choice of settling on Obama as the nominee, or essentially ensuring a convention battle.

I don't think that the intensity of preference for Hillary is strong enough that the majority of voters would be inclined to risk the latter scenario. It seems that a pattern has emerged in the primaries of Obama surging significantly in the last few days before the primary, and Hillary picking up a large portion of the people who wake up on primary day undecided. My theory (just a guess) as to why this is, is that Obama does do much better once people begin paying close attention to the contest, but if he does not win people over by the last couple of days, many people like both candidates and all things being equal, they vote for Hillary by default, who is a more familiar face and seemingly less risky.I think that by early March a nice streak by Obama, coupled with the increasing urgency of ending the race and moving on to the general election, could lead to an altering of who the all-things-being-equal-default candidate as, and could help Obama in states where he may be at a seemingly demographic disadvantage.

Just my two cents. I could very easily be wrong (wouldn't be the first time), but I have not heard this scenario speculated on in the media and it seems to make a lot of sense to me.

[BL611]

1. Just as an addendum

Ron Brownstein (who I'm not a huge fan of) makes a fairly similar point toward the end of this piece.

www.msnbc.com/id/23071683