By getting out the Black vote, do Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia etc come into play?

[Quixote1818]

Bill Clinton won Georgia so they can be won and if Obama brings out even more blacks than Clinton in states where almost 40% of the population is black can Obama win the south?

[ingac70]

1. Yes. With Obama...

the South comes into play for Democrats.

[Captain Hilts]

2. Clinton got the 'Bubba' vote. Neither Hillary nor Obama are as likely to get that segment. nt

[thevoiceofreason]

3. Funny how LBJ said

That passing the Civil Rights Act in 1965 would cripple the democratic party in the south for 40 years. Time's up!

[Big Blue Marble]

37. I love it.

With Obama as the nominee, the southern strategy is ours.

[sandnsea]

57. Yep, we could fight in the south

and begin the transformation of the country by taking a rational Democratic message all over that region. I'd consider relocating to Arkansas for the duration to do it.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

4. I the vote isn't suppressed

I believe that the Dems have a chance in all of these states.

[sunonmars]

5. Personally, i don't think he's got a prayer there.

[onehandle]

6. If they Black vote did come out, the GOP would be finshed here.

I'd love to see Sonny and his klan of losers thrown out in GA.

Clinton lost in 1996 here. Won in 1992.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. They Didn't Come Out For Denise Majette

In order to flip southern states like GA, MI, SC, and AL the Dems need to get 35% -40% of the total white vote...This is something that few have been able to do...

[onehandle]

23. Like I said... "If"

Unlikely to flip any Southern states.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

FL And VA Could Be In Play

~

[onehandle]

41. I agree. But I also don't put them in the same category.

Georgia is pretty much one state from here to Mississippi.

Tennessee and the Carolinas are slightly different mixes.

[ellacott]

38. There's a reason they didn't come out for Majette

Bad, bad example.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

7. I'm not sure...

But I thought blacks already voted at a considerably higher rates compared to white cohorts, so I wouldn't expect it would make a huge difference just based on that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. There Is Not One State Where African Americans Form Forty Percent Of The Population

The highest is around thirty percent...

[ingac70]

9. In Mississippi...

It is 37%...

http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/facts_for_features_special_editions/006088.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Wow

And Dems can't buy a statweide race there... That means the Democrat is getting less than two or three out of every ten white votes there...

[Quixote1818]

17. That depens on the % of blacks who vote

I think in the past it's been a very low %

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I'd Have To See Some Hard Numbers

I am most familiar with my own state Florida, and here African American folks vote in proportion to their percentage of the total population...

[mohc]

36. Kerry got 14%

Of the white vote in 2004, link here. Blacks turnout was roughly even with white turnout, keep in mind the black population is slightly younger than the white, so the VAP of blacks is not as high a percentage as total population.

[ingac70]

22. It has been low in the past...

even when Dems got elected. Obama will encourage more of them to get out and vote.

[ingac70]

20. The last governor before Barbour was a Dem.

so I don't know where you get this idea a Dem can't win a statewide race there.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governor_of_Mississippi

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. I Know There Have Been Dems Elected Statewide There

But they have a Republican governor and two Republican senators...


Haley Barbour smoked John Arthur Eaves Junior in their 07 election 58%-42%


Mississipi hasn't went Dem at the presidential level since 1976....

[ingac70]

25. That is because of the Fundies there...

and they aren't exactly happy with the Repubs right now, in case you haven't noticed.

[Maddy McCall]

43. Where in Mississippi do you live?

[Maddy McCall]

42. Mississippi has a majority Dem senate and house.

Mississippi, however, does not vote Dem in national elections.

I predict a Red Mississippi in November, even with wonderboy.

[debatepro]

12. With obama it's not Black v. White... it's...

African Americans (in large numbers) + Yellow Dog Democrats + Independents + cross over moderate republicans... mean DEMOCRATIC VICTORY(s) in places we couldn't compete in before.

[Independent-Voter]

18. Absolutely spot on.

[Maddy McCall]

46. Just because you want to believe it does not make it so.

[debatepro]

51. Nice try... Data is on our side...

Just because you assert it's "belief" doesn't make it so... or even true...

Heavy African American turnout (empirical - look as SC, Alab., and GA) plus yellow dogs (look at other democrat voters in the state that obama and hillary got)... plus independents & republicans...(look at SQ and GA exit polls Obama crushes with independents and/or republicans – compared Clinton. Obama got more independent voters than any other two GOP candidates combined)

[Maddy McCall]

53. I live here. Heavily involved in state politics.

I'm telling you, this state will not swing Blue in the general.

For either candidate.

[Quixote1818]

19. I think you are right about that. nt

[Maddy McCall]

45. LOL.

Wanna bet your savings on that?

[Quixote1818]

13. Mississippi is 37% black.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi

Mississippi has the highest Black population of any U.S. state. It currently stands at about 37% of the population.

[557188]

11. I don't think there is enough

Georgia was won with Perot. I just don't see any Democrat winning a southern state, other than Florida, in a head to head match up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. FL And VA Could Be In Play

But most of those states are only geographically southern...

[TexasObserver]

16. Absolutely they are in play with Obama leading the ticket!!

One of the keys to an Obama victory will be stealing some Southern states and some western and midwestern states that often go Republican, while holding the traditional Democratic strongholds.

[penguin7]

32. I thought the black vote already voted Democrat?

I do not see how Clinton can lose to McCain.

I can see all kinds of ways Obama can lose.

[TexasObserver]

33. They get to vote again. And so do all the whites who like Obama.

You're deluding yourself if you think Hillary can win over 15 states in the fall. She will not win a single state in the South. Obama will.

[penguin7]

34. Clinton can win Ohio

[TexasObserver]

35. like I said, she can't win over 15 states in the fall

Her only possible winning strategy is to try to nail down the big states. The problem is she won't get indies in those states, and she's probably lost the kind of votes from the black community she would need to win the big cities.

If she's the nominee, I give us no better than a 35% chance of winning, with about an equal chance of her winning ten or fewer states.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. Do You Have Any Citations?

I think you should provide evidence for your assertions, especially when you narrow it down to a mathematical certainty, ergo: "If she's the nominee, I give us no better than a 35% chance of winning, with about an equal chance of her winning ten or fewer states"

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. To Be Honest...

I see ways they can both lose...

Is it a coincidence that Al Gore, a son of the South, lost every southern state including his own except Florida* in 2000?

[theboss]

26. You are missing a big factor: Evangelicals despise McCain

The South may be in play with either candidate simply because Evangelicals may stay at home. (I'm not a believer in the theory that McCain is going to give the VP slot to Huckabee. Huckabee is a useful idiot for McCain and that's it).

Unprecedented black vote + low Evangelical turnout = potential winning formula.

[ingac70]

28. Bingo!

Good old common sense everyone seems to be ignoring.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Here's A Lot Of Southern Match Ups From A Reputable Polling Firm....Just Scroll

http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx

I will grant that the elections are a long time from now but as of now McCain is smoking both Hillary and Obama...

[ingac70]

39. All I see is Kentucky....

Where are all these Southern match ups?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. Keep Scrolling...

There's a few more including Florida and Virginia...

[ingac70]

49. The polls from September? n/t.

[ingac70]

56. ....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4491428&mesg_id=4491428

Hurray!

[Tweed]

27. Enough at least to make McCain spend money in the South

and in the end, that's all that matters. Every cent spent in GA, AL, MS, etc. is a cent not spent in OH, FL, MO, etc.

[theboss]

30. The South is no lock for McCain against anyone

He'll get the "military vote" there, which is clearly a strong factor. But Evangelicals hate him. (Witness Dobson saying he won't vote for him under any circumstances).

[alteredstate]

31. South Carolina could be in play. n/t

[theboss]

50. I doubt that

Here is what is I think is "in play" in the South:

Virginia, Georgia, Florida, and maybe Tennessee.

If Obama or Hillary wins two of those, the Republicans lose in a landslide.

[Dawgs]

44. Take it from somebody that actually lives in the South(Georgia).

Obama would win here.

[beachmom]

52. No. I think Obama has helped, but GA is hopelessly red.

A realignment occurred since Bill Clinton won Georgia, and it's not going to change back overnight.

[last_texas_dem]

54. I think it's doubtful in those particular states

MS and, I believe, SC are the states with the largest black populations, and yet are essentially solidly Republican. While their black populations may vote 90+% Democratic, their white populations are almost as solidly Repug on the Presidential level, at least. Consider that even with blacks voting around 95% for Kerry in MS, Bush won something like 85% of whites. With blacks making up 37% of the population in MS, even if they're voting more solidly Democratic than whites are voting solidly Repug, that's still not enough. I don't think turnout is really that big a part of it, either. Black turnout in most southern states is comparable to whites, I believe. It's just that there are more whites, and they vote almost as exclusively for one party as blacks do, just for a different party.

GA is an interesting case, as they don't seem to be quite as solidly "Dixie" as AL and MS (in the latter two I believe a Dem victory is statistically impossible). Clinton did win in '92, but I believe much of that was due to the Perot factor. Also, GA has moved further to the right since that time, with "Democrat" Senator Zell Miller turning into a flaming right-winger and being replaced by a Repug upon retirement, Democratic Senator Max Cleland being defeated (even if cheating was involved) for re-election for being such an "unpatriotic" triple-amputee war veteran, and GA electing their first Repug governor since Reconstruction. Also, the Presidential elections in GA this decade weren't even close.

What it comes down to is this: Even if Obama (or even Clinton, for that matter) being on the ticket were to increase interest among blacks in voting for the Democratic ticket, in states where race is such a prime factor in what party the citizens choose to align themselves with, it is likely that there will be a similar increase in whites voting Repug to combat blacks voting Dem. I'm from East Texas, so I think I know a number of these people well enough to assess that there are plenty of them out there, and that's why I'm not optimistic that Obama (or Clinton's) appeal to black voters will be able to put the south into play, beyond a couple of less traditionally southern states. (And those being in play will have more to do with "swing" voters of all races than traditionally Democratic-voting blacks.) I do think it's possible that either Obama or Clinton could win a national election, but it's going to be a close one either way IMHO and I don't think the south is going to be of much help.

[AndyTiedye]

55. No (Of Course, Clinton Can't Win in the South Either)

They'll crank up their voter supression operations to keep blacks from voting.

In Georgia, every single vote is counted by Diebold Repiglickin Electing machinez. Not a chance of a Democrat winning there, no matter how many people vote for him/her.

Alabama and Mississippi are the reddest of red states.

[charlyvi]

58. I live in Alabama. No fucking way. n/t