Analysis: Clinton could have upper hand in Virginia

[geek tragedy]

But there's one February state that doesn't fall neatly into Obama's corner. That's Virginia, which tends to get lumped in with Maryland and D.C. into the "Potomac Primary" on Tuesday. But Virginia's demographic profile is much less favorable to Obama than its Beltway cousins and the Deep South states where he's won so far. It's a border state, and only 19.9 percent black. Its closest demographic parallels among states that have voted so far are Tennessee, where Obama lost by 13 points, and Missouri, where he won by only ten thousand votes. In 2004, African Americans made up 33 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in Virginia. If the proportion is the same this year and Obama wins them 80-20, he'd need about 37 percent of the white vote to win the state. That's certainly achievable, given his totals elsewhere. But it's no sure thing. In Tennessee, he won only 26 percent of the white vote; in Missouri he won 39 percent. In other Southern states his totals have ranged from to 25 percent (Alabama) to 43 percent (Georgia).

Nor do other indicators in Virginia point toward an Obama romp. No polls have been taken in the state since October, when he trailed Clinton 49 percent to 25. Needless to say, those numbers are no longer accurate, but they do suggest a strong base of support for Clinton in the state--especially given that in 2004, 56 percent of Democratic primary voters were women. And even if Obama wins the statewide vote, the delegate count might not break his way, since his strongest supporters, African Americans, are packed heavily into two of the state's eleven congressional districts. Overall, Obama can expect to have the edge in four districts (the two heavily black districts and two more in the Washington suburbs), while Clinton can plan on doing well in four heavily white districts in exurban and rural Virginia. The remaining three districts remain up for grabs.

Folks in rural Virginia are much more likely to vote for Clinton than Obama. She's won these kind of white, rural districts in GA, TN, AL, MO, etc etc.

See the full thing at:


http://tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=280357a1-02a8-4168-b000-ad83d7f2475c

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. Clinton will win Virginia by 5-10%

Bank it.

[wnslnadu21]

6. bookedmarked

[ShortnFiery]

22. I concur alcibiades_mystery. I can sense the excitement for Obama here

in NoVA.

I believe Obama can win VA. :thumbsup: :hi:

[MadBadger]

2. Wasnt there a SurveyUSA poll showing Obama up 18 today?

[geek tragedy]

7. Polls showed him up by double digits in NH and CA.

Haven't we learned our lesson with polls?

[MadBadger]

10. The CA Survey USA poll had Clinton up 10 going into the primary...she won by 10.

[PresidentObama]

13. So that forever means Survey USA is 100% accurate?

Polls are polls.

They sure didn't pay off in New Hampshire.

[MadBadger]

21. No, it doesnt, but one another poll, the Insider advantage poll has him up 15

He's up big.

[geek tragedy]

23. Do you really want to raise expectations for him?

It's better for him if he lowers expectations.

[MadBadger]

27. Yes, because me thinking he will win will reach MSNBC and CNN

All I'm saying is that evidence shows she doesnt have the upper hand. I mean part of your second point is based on no polling since October. Well, that isnt true yet.

[cali]

12. SUSA's been right about every state but MO and AL

and they weren't that far off there. Why shouldn't we pay attention to SUSA?

[loveangelc]

11. yup

http://www.wtvr.com/global/story.asp?s=7843593

[Big Blue Marble]

25. Thank you for the link.

I did not know about this poll. If those numbers hold up, it will be a good night for Obama.

[Captain Hilts]

3. In southeastern VA the Dem party is strongly dominated by black voters. nt

[AX10]

4. She is very competitive in VA.

It will be a very interesting night to see how it all plays out.

[elixir]

5. Good stuff. Thanks for the analysis? Any new polls on upcoming states, I couldn't find any?

[SteppingRazor]

8. Old story. There are recent polls for Virginia. Obama's up by something like 18 points. n/t

[PresidentObama]

15. How much ahead was Obama in polls before New Hampshire?

And who won again?

And when you say polls, that usually means more than one. One poll shows him ahead by that margin. Not polls.

[SteppingRazor]

20. The best of the NH polls showed Obama with a 13 point lead...

most had him up 7-9 points. More VA polls will come out in the next couple days, and if they reinforce the SUSA poll, then I seriously doubt VA will play out like NH.

[Drunken Irishman]

24. NH appears to have been a fluke.

Most polls, outside that damn Zogby California poll, have been pretty accurate.

NH, though, was hard because I think Obama was hurt by the McCain campaign. Many indies went over and voted for him instead of Obama, but even then, he only lost by like 3 points, right?

[Big Blue Marble]

28. I think you are right.

The independents went for McCain in NH at the last minute.

[Drunken Irishman]

30. I think a lot of it was due to the polls.

They saw Obama up by 8 or so points and McCain in a tough fight with Romney and thought they could vote for McCain and Obama would still win.

[Big Blue Marble]

33. What you are saying makes a lot of sense.

I had hoped that Obama would have done well with the indies coming off his Iowa win.

I guess stopping Romney and I can understand why they would want to, made more sense to them
especially if they thought they Obama would win anyway.

On another subject, I finally found the Irish O'bama button that you have. I bought it on Ebay yesterday.

I am giving it to my daughter. She has loved it ever since she saw yours.

And we are part Irish too!

[rox63]

9. Should be a close race

No states should ever be taken for granted.

[COFoothills]

14. VA is the only place she stands a chance in the next week

But I still think Obama takes it by 6. 53-47.

[Alhena]

16. No, she's favored to win the Maine caucus

[rodeodance]

18. Really?

[geek tragedy]

19. She should be embarrassed if Obama wins Maine.

That's a perfect state for her.

[COFoothills]

29. I forgot about Maine.

She should be favored there. But with Obama obviously dominant in Caucus contests it's hard to imagine she would be favored there by much.

[rodeodance]

17. Two interesting stories here also--clickable on website:

So why is Virginia, a genuine battleground, being lumped in so casually with the other Obama-friendly states? It could well be attributable to a phenomenon I blogged about earlier. DC-based pundits say to themselves, "Well, I live in Virginia, and all my friends are voting for Obama, so he must be the favorite." But that's a misleading picture--in 2004, only 28 percent of Democratic primary votes in the state were cast in the inner Washington suburbs (Arlington County, Alexandria, Falls Church, Fairfax, and Fairfax County). There are still quite a few beer-track, culturally conservative white Democrats in other parts of the state. The primary can be seen, in part, as a contest between pundit Tom Schaller's Virginia (wherein Democrats win by strengthening the Obama coalition of blacks and upscale whites) and political consultant Dave "Mudcat" Saunders's Virginia (wherein they win by peeling off working-class rural whites--and by swearing. A lot.) Neither one of these camps is clearly stronger than the other, which is exactly why commentators should expect the Democratic primary to be close.

[ShortnFiery]

26. That's the great facade: Working Poor People would do much better under an Obama Presidency

than under that of a FULL FLEDGED MEMBER DUO of the right-leaning DLC, i.e., Queen Hillary and King Bill. :shrug:

[rodeodance]

34. ah truth hit you again?

[theboss]

31. The issue in VA is always turnout

And turnout in Richmond to be specific.

This is the kind of state where organization really matters because there are so many different pockets that vote so differently from one another.

[AGirl]

32. interesting..