Consensus of major media outlets show Obama with a 20 pledged delegate lead (good responsible data)

[Perky]

I put together this data set in Excel to show everyone how major media outlets are not on the same page at all when it comes to allocation of pledged delegates.

The results are form the websites of each of thes outlets. The last nuber in each row is the consesus number. Where there was not a consensus I took the average of those that would appear to have a credible number.

The results do show that by consensuse Obama has about a 20 delegat lead not including Super Delegates. WHere Clinton has a substantiall greater lead and thuis an overall lead. It is impossible to ascertain the methodology behind counting super delegate so I am not going to even try.

Obama

CNN CBS MSNBC ABC Fox NYT RCP Consensus
Alabama 20 25 25 26 20 10 25 25
Alaska 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
American Samoa 0 - 0 1
Arizona 21 25 25 25 25 21 25 25
Arkansas 6 8 8 8 7 3 8 8
California 23 160 163 153 152 163 163 163
Colorado 13 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
Connecticut 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26
Delaware 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Florida 0 - 0 0 0 -
Georgia 27 56 45 49 35 22 56 52
Idaho 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Illinois 83 96 91 85 83 68 96 90
Iowa 16 16 16 19 16 16
Kansas 23 23 23 23 23 15 23 23
Massachusetts 37 38 38 38 38 38 38 38
Michigan - 0 -
Minnesota 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
Missouri 30 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
Nevada 13 13 13 14 13 13 13
New Hampshire 9 9 9 12 9 9 9
New Jersey 37 48 48 48 48 46 48 48
New Mexico 0 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
New York 87 93 93 93 93 80 93 93
North Dakota 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Oklahoma 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
South Carolina 25 25 25 26 25 25 25
Tennessee 21 28 29 28 23 14 28 28
Utah 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
634 873 861 858 757 737 876 866

Clinton

CNN CBS MSNBC ABC Fox NYT RCP Consensus
Alabama 21 24 23 23 21 19 24 22
Alaska 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
American Samoa 0 -
Arizona 26 30 31 31 30 25 31 29
Arkansas 23 27 25 27 24 10 27 26
California 42 201 207 203 195 207 207 207
Colorado 6 9 6 9 9 9 9 9
Connecticut 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Delaware 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Florida 0 - 0 0 0 - 0
Georgia 18 25 24 23 19 12 25 21
Idaho 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Illinois 42 49 48 43 42 35 49 44
Iowa 15 15 15 17 15 15 15 15
Kansas 9 9 9 9 9 6 9 9
Massachusetts 54 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
Michigan 0 - 0 -
Minnesota 24 24 24 24 24 8 24 24
Missouri 30 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
Nevada 12 12 12 14 12 12 12 12
New Hampshire 9 9 9 11 9 9 9 9
New Jersey 51 59 59 59 55 54 59 57
New Mexico 0 13 13 13 13 14 13 13
New York 127 138 138 139 138 121 138 138
North Dakota 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Oklahoma 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
South Carolina 12 12 12 15 12 12 12 12
Tennessee 34 38 33 40 35 24 38 35
Utah 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
628 858 852 864 826 756 865 846


As you know, about50% of the total delegates in any state is proportioned by congressional district

The problem is the official providers of election results do not record the results by Congressional District. It is done by County.

The problem is that the counties do not record results by congressional district, They provide results by election precinct. They do not care about Congressional boundaries.

The problem is that the Parties are apparently dependent upon the State and County for election results data, but they are not rolling up data from precinct to Congressional district either.

Congressional District rarely follow County boundaries (A single district could be part of a county. A single Country could have parts of multiple districts traversing it. No one seems to have responsibility for capturing votes by congressional distinct.

But wait just a blooming minute. How the hell do we figure out who wins congressional elections.

It turns out that state Secretaries of States do roll up precinct to congressional district for federal elections by law. But they do not do it for primaries unless it is a congressional primary.


So all this begs a question....How in the hell does anybody know how delegates get apportioned if no one has the responsibility to get the right data together????? The apportionment of nominating delegates does not seem to have a responsible party.


This totally explains why different media outlets and the candidates do not have the same numbers.

By this point in the election cycle it doe not matter because in the past someone is cruising to a national victory. NOT THIS YEAR..


IT IS AS IF NO ONE THOUGHT ABOUT THIS PROBLEM


IDIOTS!

This is hardly abritrary. But given the lack of data and given the propensity of party hacks to have predispositions to one candidate or another. This is a recipe for fraud and food fights.

[Perky]

1. kicking for added context

[Bullet1987]

2. I agree...the system is just full of holes and this looks like it could get

really nasty.

[Maribelle]

3. The green papers ...

a wealth of information

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/D.phtml#0301

[Perky]

4. Love the grren papers...but they do not show

the precinct to Congressional district correlation...

[Perky]

5. kicking

[Perky]

6. .