Who will win tomorrow and by how much?

[Colobo]

In: Louisiana, Nebraska, Virgin Islands, Washington?

Obama wins: Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington- the first two by more than 20%, Washington by 16%.
Hillary wins: Virgin Island, and I don't know by how much.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. I'll take the under on Washington State.

[Colobo]

3. That would mean...

Sorry, there is some terminology I still don't get in English. :)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. Sorry, over/under is a football betting term... just saying I think WA will be less than 16%

Nebraska will probably be a blow-out.

I have no feel for LA, but have no quible with the conventional wisdom of a big loss.

I assume Hill wins Maine, but I haven't seen any polling.

[Colobo]

8. Thanks for clarifying, Kurt!

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. PS: I hadn't seen the SUSA poll when I posted. (just saw it now when I left your thread)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=4f7f4146-bce7-43fc-9ca8-ad7bd6f68a86&q=45617

[neutron]

9. what website has election results other than cnn or msnbc?

I don't like watching or going near those two.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

12. realclearpolitics.com does a good job (Pub leaning editorials, but their polling round-up is legit)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[Joe the Revelator]

2. Hillary may win Wash,

[CoffeeCat]

16. The latest poll shows Obama by 5...

...but I also think that the caucus format favors Obama.

[Skwmom]

4. On CNN they said Clinton would win Nebraska and Maine.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

7. Nebraska? How odd... I thought that was in the bag for Obama

[CoffeeCat]

14. That's odd...

Clinton and Obama are tied in Maine. Both have made stops there this week.

As for Nebraska, unless I've missed something, it appears that Clinton is
conceding this one all ready. She didn't schedule any events in the state.
When a reporter from Omaha, pressed her campaign about putting her people
in the state, to coalesce a ground game, they said they would have a "presence."

However, that was two days ago. There was no concerted Clinton effort there.
Obama has had people there for a while...7 Field Organizers working the ground
and coordinating volunteers.

Clinton hasn't visited there. Obama had a big rally on Thurs.

He definitely has all of the press.

I predict he wins Nebraska by double digits.

[CoffeeCat]

10. It will go down like this:

Louisiana--Obama by major, margins. I say he takes it with a 40-point spread.

Nebraska--Hillary didn't even show up here. Obama did. Plus, he has a strong
ground game there, and has had 7 Field Coordinators there for a long time.
Obama will take Nebraska at least by 20 points.

Washington--Both have made a few stops in the state. This one will be more competitive.
However, Obama's crowds have been ridiculously large and he's got momentum. There
are large pockets of Progressive areas and lots of colleges and high-tech industries
that would tend to favor Obama. I'll say Obama by 8.

Virgin Islands--I have absolutely no idea, but if either campaign needs me to fly
down there, and sit on the beach and sip margaritas beachside--in order to conduct
research...I'm totally willing to do do my duty for the country!

[Colobo]

11. Good analysis!

[NJSecularist]

20. Good synopsis

Hillary pretty much conceding Washington today makes me believe that she'll lose and by a decent margin.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

13. all caucus Obama can only win caucus'

[Redbear]

15. Louisiana Obama by 15

Nebraska Obama by 15

Washington Clinton by less than 1 %

Virgin Islands Clinton by 10

Obama gets 102 delegates

Clinton gets 94 delegates

8 threads in GDP will declare the Clinton candidacy officially over

[CoffeeCat]

17. Ok, delegate counts...

I'll say...

Louisiana--(67 delegates)
---Obama 45
---Clinton 22

Nebraska ( 31 delegates)
---Obama 20
---Clinton 11

Washington (97 delegates)
---Obama 51
---Clinton 46

Virgin Islands (9)
---Obama 5
---Clinton 4

Totals:
Obama--121
Clinton--83

[CoffeeCat]

18. duplicate

duplicate

[JohnBreauxDemocrat]

19. I think Hillary takes Louisiana -- in a route.

John Breaux's glowing radio endorsement is not yet reflected in the polls, but will surge the voters tomorrow.

[thevoiceofreason]

21. Here's my calls:

Wash: O by 5
Neb: O by 18
La: O by 24
VI: No freakin idea