Obama Is Within 1% of Winning Nomination - INCLUDING Superdelegates!

[FlyingSquirrel]

Ok, I know this is an audacious statement. (Sorry, couldn't help using the word.)

I was as surprised as anyone when I realized this just now. Let me explain.

Let's start with the Superdelegates. At first glance, you may think Obama is not closing the gap - and he isn't. HOWEVER, he is not losing ground either. The graph is linear. This means a nearly consistent gap of about 93 Superdelegates (on average) is separating Clinton and Obama.

(Excuse the poor picture, but you'll get the idea.)



So, if they continue on this pace and Obama does NOT close the gap any time between now and the convention, they would finish with these approximate totals: Clinton 444.5, Obama 351.5

(As I understand it, this might actually be possible since Democrats Abroad each only count as half a delegate).

According to Demconwatch, whose numbers I believe to be the best available, Clinton now has 842 Delegates and Obama has been awarded 859. They are still in the process of awarding delegates so these numbers will change - however at this moment in time, Obama has 50.5% of the pledged delegates, and Clinton has 49.5%.

There are 3,253 pledged delegates up for grabs. If Clinton and Obama maintained these percentages, Clinton would get 1610 and Obama would get 1643. (This is a simplified scenario which does not include Edwards' delegates.) Adding in the superdelegate estimates above, Clinton would win - 2054.5 to 1994.5

Now let's say Obama wins 51.5% of the pledged delegates instead, still without closing the superdelegate gap.

In this case, Obama gets 1675 pledged delegates to Clinton's 1578. Add in the superdelegates and you get:

Obama 2026.5, Clinton 2022.5

So basically this is the approximate minimum increase that is necessary for Barack Obama to take the nomination.

1% more delegates than he's currently winning. Assuming he does not close the Superdelegate gap.

Pretty cool, huh?

:hippie:

[kid a]

1. yeah!

[BayouBengal07]

2. It's 2:00AM

So I don't have the mental strength to parse your numbers; let's just say I hope you're right!

[FlyingSquirrel]

3. Don't worry, I double-checked them.

In reality I don't think that's what is going to happen. I think Obama's probably going to gain some momentum and when he does the superdelegates will start breaking his way and he'll close the gap or possibly even overtake Hillary.

But this shows that in fact if he just maintains the same pace he's currently on with regard to superdelegates, and increases his pledged delegate lead to 51.5% or more, he'll probably win anyway.

[Yossariant]

4. He's not losing ground in the superdelegate count? What do you think he's whining about?

He picked up 8 superdelegates today. Hillary picked up 16.

[FlyingSquirrel]

6. Your reputation goes before you, Sir.

Look at the graph, we're not talking about single-day totals here.
(Might want to link to show where Obama is "whining" about it, by the way.)

Date Obama Clinton
25-Jan 84 175
27-Jan 86 182
3-Feb 106 197
4-Feb 107 200
6-Feb 110 201
7-Feb 119 214
8-Feb 124 218

Put the numbers into a spreadsheet yourself if you can manage it, and see what kind of chart you come up with. It's an average difference of 93. Today it's 94. Please, by all means dispute this any way you can. I'm waiting with bated breath.

:eyes:

[Yossariant]

13. I don't know where you get those ridiculous numbers.

It may be rocket science for you, but for some of us, it ain't:

2-8-08 Added DNC Bill Gwatney (AR) , Carole Dabbs (GA) , DNC Sarah Swisher (IA), DNC Rachel Binah (CA) , DNC Christine "Roz" Samuels (NJ) , DNC Norma Fisher Flores (TX) , DNC David Holmes (TX), Billi Gosh (VT) , DNC Hon. Myron Lowery (TN) , DNC Glenard Middleton (MD) , Alvaro Cifuentes (MD) , Richard Michalski (MD), Michael Steed (MD), DNC Mike Gronstal (IA) , Lonnie Plott (GA) , Maria Cordone (MD), for Clinton

Added Mark Bryant (MO) , Judy Bevans (VT) , DNC Chuck Ross Jr. (VT) , Gov. Christine Gregoire (WA) , Rep. John Yarmuth (KY) , Rep. David Obey (WI) , Frank LaMere (NE), Anthony Avallone (CT) for Obama

[FlyingSquirrel]

16. Why don't you tell me where you're getting your numbers

And I'll tell you where I'm getting mine.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

[Yossariant]

17. Same site. Try this page. Scroll to the end of the lists for February's

and today's endorsements. Like I said, she got 16 today and he got 8.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

[FlyingSquirrel]

19. I'm glad we at least agree on the source then.

(I think you missed that they removed one from Hillary Clinton and put it in the uncommitted column, so that brings her total addition down to 15 for the day)

The point is, you're trying to use a one-day total to infer that Hillary's outdoing Barack 2 to 1. In fact, while she started out with a greater than 2 to 1 advantage, notwithstanding today's number she is still only 94 ahead. And I've been keeping track of the numbers almost daily (again from the same site) which enables me to see that it's a pretty steady average so far of 93. So a single day total doesn't really change anything as far as the greater picture goes. I'm assuming they've updated their numbers on the left based on today's totals.

Currently:

218 to 124

That's a 94-delegate difference, and a ratio of 1.758 to 1


Numbers from January 25 were:

175-84

A 91-delegate difference, and a ratio of 2.083 to 1


In other words, he's maintaining the same average delegate difference, but improving his ratio.

[Yossariant]

22. In other words, you have too much time on your hands.

The fact that Hillary lost a delegate does not factor in, AT ALL, or change the fact that she got 16 today and Obama only got 8 -- except insofar as it affects your own daily tallies.

Just check the link every now and then and you'll have an idea of where the superdelegates are positioned.

And CNN has a superdelegate total that's close enough for most rational people:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/

The likelihood of me crunching these numbers with you is non-existent.

[TexasObserver]

5. Nice work, but too conservative.

Obama is going to roll the next two months. He'll win at least 75% of the contests and 60% of the delegates, maybe more. Meanwhile, she will be limiting her media buys to key states and playing the gender card everywhere in the hopes of getting enough women out to put her over the top in selected states.

[catagory5]

7. hate to rain on your parade

Florida and MI.

But for sure FL

HA

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Hate to rain on your parade.

Ain't going to happen.

Either they revote, or they get no say.

[FlyingSquirrel]

14. Hate to rain on YOUR parade...

Looking at numbers in MI and FL, although at first you might think the 55% Clinton win in MI makes a big difference, she would only have about a 15-20 Delegate lead over Obama in delegates there. In FL she has approximately 30 more Delegates. (Edwards would get about 12, and it's uncertain who they would vote for but the Edwards vote has been shifting mostly to Obama).

So at the most, if MI and FL were counted it would give Clinton an extra 50 delegates. (It's uncertain whether they would still not allow Superdelegates from those states even if the Pledged Delegates were seated. But it's too early to say what those Superdelegates might do anyway.)

It would certainly raise a big controversy if those 50 delegates made the difference in the contest. But at this point, with Obama gaining momentum, it may not end up being an issue.

Those who bring up FL and MI (usually with a "HA!" for emphasis) have probably not actually crunched the numbers.

[FlyingSquirrel]

9. Oh, I agree.

It's conservative on purpose. To show just how little more would be necessary for him to win it, and how the difference in Superdelegates has been completely overblown.

I completely expect to see things break Obama's way and not by a small amount. Including Superdelegates.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Stat geeks turn me on.

Are you female? :)

[JVS]

15. he's not

[Drunken Irishman]

18. Figures.

[FlyingSquirrel]

20. Sorry dude

[Drunken Irishman]

21. I'll live.

[usregimechange]

10. Interesting, he can easily get 1%

[cooolandrew]

12. So close it's scary but WTG Barack.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

23. Bottom line: the race is close

I'm convinced that if Obama wins a majority of pledged delegates, many superdelegates will vote for him to avoid having a candidate not chosen by the people. Perhaps not all or even a majority of super delegates will do this, but a large enough number which will guarantee him the nomination (of course, the same applies if Hillary wins a majority of pledged delegates).

[FlyingSquirrel]

24. I'm sure you're correct about that.

Should be a fun month!