How I see the rest of the states playing out

[Quixote1818]

I see Obama winning:

Louisiana
Nebraska
Washington
U.S. Virgin Islands
District of Columbia
Maine (probably)
Maryland
Virginia
Hawaii
Wisconsin (Obama now has slight lead plus he took MN big)
Wyoming
Mississippi
Guam
North Carolina
Oregon
Montana
South Dakota
Vermont

Hillary

Ohio
West Virginia
Pennsylvania
Indiana (this is a guess)
Kentucky
Puerto Rico
Texas
Maybe Rhode Island (I may have this wrong)




So, if it turns out this way then who wins?

[jlake]

1. It depends on the winning margins, but it looks like Hillary wins.

[lligrd]

3. How Is That?

Please elaborate. And most of Hillary's are in the maybe column.

[jlake]

6. Because Hillary should win OH, PA and maybe TX by large margins (VERY big delegate count)

Most of them will be very close, and the ones Obama will win are small.
Obama's biggest day is going to be Tuesday - he should do really well. After that, things are back in Hillary's favor.

[lligrd]

7. I Wouldn't Be So Sure About The Margins

Obama seems to marginalize those in any place he campaigns. For the record, I am not supporting him based on speeches, in fact I have never heard one.

[jlake]

10. We'll see, but I think OH & PA in particular have the demographics that Hillary

is very strong with.... She has signs popping up all over my neighborhood.

[VolcanoJen]

19. So Hill win Ohio just because you think she could?

Those of us living and working in Ohio for Obama think otherwise.

[jlake]

21. I work in OH 2 days a week.... I think Hill will win BIG.

[Quixote1818]

27. She will do well in any state the economy and jobs is the key issue

I suspect she will win big in Ohio too.

[cali]

31. She won't. Obama's only 10 pts back in the latest TX poll

and if he beats her by big margins in all the Feb primaries and caucuses, he'll have the momentum. He'll be within 10 pts in Ohio and close in TX. She'll likely lose big in several upcoming states. And she'll look like a loser by the end of Feb as well.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. Is that picture Rod Stewart?

Kidding!!

[jlake]

8. lol

That's one of the nicer things I've heard about Hillary lately.

[grantcart]

29. yes she is the front runner and with the schedule provided she should win with ease.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. Obama will win Vermont. Lots of AA voters in the DEM side in Indiana

On the other side, I'd pick Clinton in North Carolina and West Virginia.

All together, a narrow margin for Hillary. I don't know how people will react when they realize Puerto Rico is picking the nominee... most Dems probably never even knew there was a PR primary, let alone that it may well be decisive.

[Quixote1818]

13. Latest NC poll has Obama up plus he blew her out in SC

A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Barack Obama edging Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential race, 42% to 40%.

I can't find anything on West Virginia.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

18. I'm not predicting an NC blow-out... just that I think she'll pull it out

Not to channel Bill Clinton, but in 1988 SC and VA both went for Jackson, but NC went for Gore.

In electoral terms I think of NC as more like Tennessee than like SC. It plays more like a border state than a deep south state. Given Clinton's easy win in TN, I suspect NC is very much in play.

Close, but I expect Clinton to pull out the close ones going forward. (She seems to have done well everywhere the polls were close.)

[usregimechange]

5. Texas is more likely than Ohio and Penn, imo

[usregimechange]

9. See here, scroll down to Texas:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4494195

[mihalevich]

12. Texas will go to Obama

[TexasObserver]

16. Agreed. That census chart has assumptions that are invalid.

[VolcanoJen]

22. Isn't the Texas contest in some form, a caucus?

It's all quite confusing, what y'all are doing down there.

But I'm in Ohio, so take that with a grain of salt.

[TexasObserver]

28. 228 delegates, with 126 picked by state senatorial district

... based upon the voting in the primary in those 31 state senatorial districts.

126 by primary results, by senate district (31 of them)
67 picked by state convention
35 National Convention delegates identified down below
228 total

Tuesday 4 March 2008: Tier 1. 126 of 228 delegates to the Democratic National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders based on the results of the voting in today's Texas Presidential Primary. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at the senatorial district level.

Texas has 127 district delegates apportioned among its 31 STATE SENATORIAL DISTRICTS as follows: (SD= "Senatorial District")

126 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 31 state senatorial districts (each senatorial district being assigned 2 to 7 National Convention delegates based on how well each district had supported the Democratic nominee for President in 2000 and Governor in 2002).
SD 31: 2 delegates
SDs 6, 7, 8, 9, 24, 28: 3 delegates each
SDs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 11, 12, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 22, 25, 27, 29, 30: 4 delegates each
SDs 10, 20, 21, 26: 5 delegates each
SDs 14, 23: 6 delegates each
SD 13: 7 delegates

In addition, precinct conventions are to be convened no earlier than 7:15 P.M. local time the day of the presidential primary (the polls will have closed in Texas at 7 P.M.) to begin the process of choosing the delegates to County and Senate District Conventions.

Saturday 29 March 2008: Tier 2. County and Senate District Conventions select delegates to State Convention.

Friday 6 June - Saturday 7 June 2008: Tier 3. State Convention. The State Convention will choose the remaining 67 pledged delegates. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at the statewide level.

67 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the presidential preference of the delegates at the State Convention as a whole.


32 Unpledged PLEO delegates:
17 Democratic National Committee members.
13 Members of Congress (0 Senators and 13 Representatives).
0 Governors.
2 Distinguished Party Leaders (former House Speaker James C. Wright, Jr., former DNC chairman Robert Schwarz "Bob" Strauss).
3 Unpledged "add-on"s (elected at the state convention).
These 35 delegates and will go to the Democratic National Convention officially "Unpledged".


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Texas Senatorial Districts: http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/c1440/map.pdf

[usregimechange]

32. It states that what the assumptions are and that it is just an analysis of demographics

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

20. The Obama campaign disagrees.

In the accidentally leaked campaign memo on Bloomberg.com the campaign estimate was to lose TX, OH and PA, but win a narrow delegate edge by winning almost all the smaller states.

I am as suspicious of leaked memos as anyone, but it seemed quite legit. Very reasonable assumptions throughout.

But "winning" and "losing" are relative... Obama will get many delegates in Texas either way.

[Quixote1818]

15. Nice analysis nt

[NJSecularist]

11. If Obama wins all of the states until March 4th

Hillary is done.

Do you not remember the downfall of Guilani's campaign? You can't go weeks without winning a contest and letting your opponent get all the air-time.

If Obama has a clean sweep the rest of February, he will likely win Ohio and Texas and the nomination.

Which is why it is important Hillary steals his momentum somewhere this month. Because if she doesn't, she's cooked.

[Quixote1818]

14. Good point. nt

[TexasObserver]

17. You are correct!!

[ShadowLiberal]

23. I disagree on a few states

I think you're mostly correct (not considering stuff like momentum, etc, for a moment), but there's a few states I think you're wrong on.

Wisconsin, I haven't seen the poll you mention that shows Obama ahead slightly, but earlier today I saw a poll in Wisconsin with Obama losing to Hillary by 10 percent.

Maine is a caucus, so Obama will probably win it, not Hillary. (I think Hillary has even admitted she's likely to lose the caucus states, citing "lots of my supporters can't get off during the caucuses").

As for Rhode Island and Vermont, I have no idea what the polls there show, but I could definitely see Rhode Island being a toss up after Obama's narrow victory in CT. Vermont, I'm not quite sure either, but could possibly see Obama winning narrowly.

What's the population of Guam like? Is it heavily African American? I've read the Virgin Islands is like 80% black people.

Oh and you forgot to list Democrats Abroad as under either of them, they vote for a week, and we get the results the 12th of this month. I wouldn't be so surprised if Obama did well there among people in Europe, I've heard that apparently Obama seems to have the most support there (though I could be wrong, I'm basing this off of a news report a few weeks ago, they mentioned that a lot of people like Hillary to).

[cali]

33. Obama will win by well over 20 points in Vermont

Hillary isn't popular here at all. No polls, but she's raised only $47,000 dollars here and Obama has raised over $400,000. In fact, per capita, he's raised more here than anywhere else. And he's been endorsed by the uber popular Pat Leahy and by Rep. Peter Welch. It could be even more than 20 pts.

[sandnsea]

24. I'd only move a few

I'd move WV to Hillary and maybe Wisconsin. Wisconsin can be moved by Feingold if he does anything. I'd move Maine to Obama and definitely Vermont. I just don't know about OH, TX and PA. Demographically, they should be just as doable as MO or VA. I guess I'd have to take another look at what districts have Congress members endorsed and how hard are their own teams working. I think with a little co-ordinated effort and a little mo, Obama could take all 3. I think as supporters we should be locating blogs and newspaper forums in those 3 states and posting all the substance we can find.

[avrdream]

25. Hawaii has a LOT of Asians and they went for Clinton 3:1 in CA,.

So that may not be a given. AA population there is also small.

Texas is a real primary (or it was when I lived there up to 3 years ago) and there were already Hillary "clubs" back then. Large Hispanic population so likely to go HRC.

[Quixote1818]

26. I think Obama was born in Hawaii. nt

[cali]

34. wrong. TX is not a real primary. it's a hybrid

and no way on earth is Obama going to lose the state where he was born and grew up.

[rodeodance]

30. Do you have a poll saying obama is ahead in WI?? LINK please.

[Redbear]

35. If it plays out that way, likely neither one would have a majority.

Thats why superdelegates are becoming a big deal.