Bookmark this: Senator Clinton will win most of the delegates and 4 out of the 8 contests

[MrsT]

that are coming up in the next few days. Here is my logic.
So far, polls have overstated Obama's performance more than they have overstated Clinton's.
The assumption that Obama does well in caucuses was proven wrong in Nevada.
From what I can tell, even when she loses or ties in the state's popular vote, she still gets almost as many or more delegates than Obama.
Clinton knows that the desire to "wrap this up" is going to increase as time goes on, and she can't give Obama any ground. I think she lowered expectations with the "no money" rumor, got a bunch of donations out of it, and is going harder in these states than anyone knows.

I am not sure which contests she will win, but it will be at least 4 of them. Louisiana, Washingon, Maine and Virginia are my predictions.
What do you think?

Saturday, February 9
Louisiana Primary 67 delegates
Nebraska Caucus 31 delegates
Washington Caucus 97 delegates
Virgin Islands Other 9 delegates

Sunday, February 10
Maine Caucus 34 delegates

Tuesday, February 12
District of Columbia Primary 37 delegates
Maryland Primary 99 delegates
Virginia Primary 101 delegates

[bowens43]

1. yeah ....good luck with that......nt

n

[my3boyz]

4. She will not win Virginia. Bookmark that! nt

[joeybee12]

2. I think you're wrong, but I hope you're right! n/t

[Colobo]

3. Good luck. I really hope you are wrong, though.

[TexasObserver]

5. puff, puff, pass

Smoking on Saturday morning again?!

[Renew Deal]

6. Jerome Armstrong posts at DU

I'm shocked.

She has a good chance in Maine and no one knows about VI.

[dsc]

7. I am a Hillary supporter and I only see a shot of MD for her

If Maine were a primary then I could see her winning it but as a caucus likely not.

[Colobo]

11. She'll probably win Maine.

[Cha]

55. I was for Dean because he

didn't support the war on Iraq in 2002 and neither did Obama. hilary is the warmonger candidate and I thought that would make a difference to you, dsc.

[dsc]

67. I was honest at the time

I was for Dean despite the fact he and I actually had differed on the war (though he was right and I was wrong) but bottom line here I fail to see any real difference in their war positions now which is the relevant point. Both have the same record once he got into the Senate.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

8. As an Obama supporter

I think you're doing Hillary no favors by setting the expectations so high.
Obama is favored to win almost all of those states, so even one or two victories would be a good showing for Clinton.

[PATRICK]

9. As sound as

any reasoning I've heard, but I am not familiar with what the realities are. Too much smoke all around.

[KittyWampus]

10. I admit to not being able to predict outcomes.

[UALRBSofL]

13. I predict she will win DC

And stun the pundants and the MSM.

[Leopolds Ghost]

29. If Hillary cannot even win in her home turf of DC then she'll be forced to concede

:shrug:

[MS Liberal]

12. I will pray you are right!!!!

[GarbagemanLB]

14. Washington?

There is absolutely no way she wins Washington. The Pacific Northwest is going for Obama. Well-educated and well-off means Barack supporters.

[MrsT]

22. She was trailing Obama by 5% in a recent poll in Washington

And those well educated and well off people in Massachusettes voted for her too.

[Dawgs]

28. Actually, that poll has her down 22% for likely caucus goers.

[MrsT]

32. Where?

When I click on the poll, it just gives me the pie chart. I don't see any other links.

[kid a]

81. ummm...where are you?

[TwilightGardener]

15. She always does better than we think. Except when she doesn't.

I have no expectations for today--we won't know until we know.

[kevsand]

16. I sincerely want some of what you're smoking.

These eight contests coming up are all definitely favoring Obama (who won the delegate tally in Nevada, btw).

The reason the delegates are so close is because of the DNC rules. Anything closer than about 63-37 is essentially a tie in regards to delegate allotment. Most of the contests have been in that range, with the exception of a handful of blowouts for Obama.

I think we may see a couple more of those blowouts between now and Tuesday, and Obama will have a clear, if small, lead after that.

[Exultant Democracy]

20. I want some of that too, we will know how wrong this is in a few hours.

[Exultant Democracy]

44. Hey me from a few hours ago. You were spot on!

I remembered this thread but I didn't remember I posted here. Way to go Nostradamus.

[mopinko]

39. pass it over here when you get it, will ya?

how's it goin' down there? coming up any time soon?

[robbedvoter]

17. Thanks for the delegates info - I'll check back with your prediction

[elixir]

18. Sounds like a good breakdown. It certainly will be close, if anything.

[Yossariant]

19. I doubt she'll win those states and one of them is mine. Remember, though,

that the Democrats have no winner-take-all primaries so staying as close as she can is important right now.

Once we get to Texas and Ohio, she might be able to seal the deal or become so inevitable that Obama will drop out.

If he won't (and I doubt he will because he's an egomaniac) the DNC can exert pressure on him with the FL delegates.

The DNC's penalty for campaigning in FL is that no delegates can be awarded to the candidate who does it.

He broke his word the day after he gave it.
http://www2.tbo.com/content/2007/sep/30/obama-vows-do-whats-right/?news-breaking

Bit of a rough patch for Hillary supporters --- but the end result is looking good.

[JimGinPA]

21. She MIGHT Win The Virgin Islands...

But I doubt it. She'll get trounced in the other seven.

[CalGator]

84. she almost got one delegate there. nt

[kid a]

23. I wsh, for the the country, she would drop out and put her full support behind obama

she WILL NOT WIN against McCain

bookmark that

[WinkyDink]

24. Mark PA. in her future, as well.

[Yael]

25. Consider it bookmarked. I give her Maine, but thats about it.

We shall see!

Good luck. :hi:

[usregimechange]

26. She would do well to win one of them

[cali]

27. I almost feel sorry for you. She's going to get creamed today in NE

She'll lose by a slightly smaller margin in WA and she's going to lose in LA. Same thing in the Virgin Islands. Out of just about 200 delegates today, she'll be lucky if she gets 75.
She may win in Maine but I doubt it. She'll pull it out by the skin of her teeth if she does.
She's frickin' out of it in VA. She'll lose big there. Every recent poll shows her 15 to 20 points back. She's done for in MD. DC? If she gets 30% she'll have done well for herself. On Tuesday she'll get no more than 100 delegates.

[MrsT]

30. Did you think she was going to get "creamed" in New Hampshire?

Be honest.

[quakerboy]

49. Dunno about anyone else

But I figured NH for a tie, after that first round upset. Messed with my mind a bit, all that did. No one ought to count her out till she looses big somewhere she really "needs". By enough to make the superdelegates and or noncounted states not matter. Its a little surreal to see both sides try to both raise and lower expectations at the same time.

[surfermaw]

31. I'm not so sure I don't thin Obama is goint to get as many Black voters in the N..just have to w ait

Wait and see What I am trying to say as many Black votes in the North as he did in the South, we will just have to wait and see

[Exultant Democracy]

33. Louisiana and Washington both have gone to Obama by wide margins.

Looks like you were off, care to revise your predictions?

[Exultant Democracy]

34. K&R

[mohc]

35. Rubbing it in with the K&R?

Oops I guess I just did too.

[NJSecularist]

36. Whoops

Me too. :)

[Exultant Democracy]

38. And off to the greatest page.n/t

[FogerRox]

40. LOL, Kn freakin "R".

[LittleBlue]

37. Haha

Hahahaha

[NJSecularist]

41. LOL

:)

[greguganus]

42. LMAOBAMA!

Pssst...got any stock tips? :rofl:

[Exultant Democracy]

45. Oh god, STOCK TIPS! You almost just killed me! n/t

[scheming daemons]

43. I bookmarked it... you're 0-for-2 s far....

Louisiana and Washington go to Obama in blowouts.

Hillary's slide continues...

[Yael]

47. Actually 0-4 (LA, NE, WA, VI)

[Hepburn]

46. .....

:rofl:

Is that because she is losing the primaries and the caucuses...???

Thanks for the laugh!

[Yael]

48. Well, 0-4 so far but 4 to go!

[Colobo]

50. Well... you were WRONG!

[doublethink]

51. Bookmarked ........

[angie_love]

54. LMAO! DOH!!!!!!

[FrenchieCat]

52. Hope you didn't bet any money on this!

:rofl:

[kdpeters]

53. Now we know which four she will win!

Or maybe not. Recommended. :)

[MadHound]

56. You chose. . . .badly

Whoopsie!

[TexasObserver]

57. La-hoo-sa-her.

[JCMach1]

58. She only has a shot in ME and VA

and that's coming from a Hillary backer...

However, she realistically needs to take at least 40% of the delegates in the coming primaries. She CAN do that.

[krkaufman]

59. Yes, just like every primary/caucus before...

... "winning" is largely just a factor in momentum for later states and fundraising. Delegate accumulation is what matters ... 'cause delegates can't be taken away, while momentum can be gone in the blink of an eye.

[JCMach1]

66. Also, never misunderestimate the idiocy of the American Electorate

the same folks who brought you two terms of Reagan and Bush II. And, the same folks on the Democratic side who gave us George McGovern, John Kerry, Walter Mondale, and Michael Dukakis.

So, yes, momentum can be strangled in the crib.

[cali]

78. She has NO shot in VA

She's 25 pts behind in the SUSA poll and they've been quite accurate. And she didn't take 40% in yesterday's contests and she won't get 40% in VA of MD or DC. Come to think of it, no way does she get 40% in VT either. Her only hope is to win in OH and TX and by big margins. And that's a slimmer hope each day.

[Yael]

86. From what I have seen, she isn't getting to 40% anywhere. Maine isn't in yet though...

[Nailzberg]

60. I don't approve of gloating, but you brought this one upon yourself.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Starbucks Anarchist]

61. I pity the fool!

Sorry, MrsT, couldn't help it. ;)

[ShadowLiberal]

62. Have you checked any polls lately?

Have you checked any of the new polls lately? We all now know you were wrong about her winning Louisiana and Washington, so I won't mention those.

But Virginia has new polls out showing Obama up by an average of 15 points, same with Maryland.

I can understand your pick of her winning Maine, however I believe the Clinton campaign itself has already admitted that they'll probably lose Maine to because it's a caucus. Ever since South Carolina voted Hillary has done horrible in caucuses, only just about tying Obama in the New Mexico caucuses (most results show her with a slight lead there, but it's a 50/50 vote split just about).

[Eurobabe]

63. Busted.

[RoadRage]

64. Give her a break.. she only has 146 posts....

Not that i'm an oldtimer or anything, but she's probably only 9 years old and can't quite do logical math yet. Not her fault. ;)

[Hill_YesWeWill]

65. wow, you're already wrong on LA and WA

she'd have to win every single one left to fulfill that prediction,

I think she's set expectations low in some of those for a reason, maybe you should too! Let's look to Texas and Ohio!

[Honeycombe8]

68. Well, we won't be going to YOU for predictions in the future! :)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

69. That Didn't Work Out Very Well But I Admire Your Moxie

~

[fedupinBushcountry]

70. Cross Virginia off your list

Front page of our paper (The Virginian Pilot) this morning:

Obama - 53%

Clinton - 37%

GOBAMA!!!

[workinclasszero]

71. Bookmark this?

You sure??? :rofl:

[totodeinhere]

72. So far you are 0 for 2.

After we get results from Maine and Virginia, you will be 0 for 4.

[Exultant Democracy]

73. When will we have the results from Maine?n/t

[Hart2008]

74. Bookmarked. 0 for 4 with 4 to go! n/t

[ElsewheresDaughter]

77. all OPEN Caucuses & Primaries.....what part of the word OPEN do you not understand?

[Hart2008]

79. "4 out of the 8 contests that are coming up in the next few days." OPEN does not appear in the OP.

Anywhere.

:eyes:

What part of 0-4 don't you understand?

:dunce:

[calteacherguy]

75. Damn, wish I could still recommend this one.

LOL :rofl:

[TexasObserver]

76. Did you Double Down?! Hahahaha

[Hart2008]

80. LOL

:rofl:

[Faygo Kid]

82. Who you got in the Kentucky Derby?

Cuz I want to put my money on some other horse.

[CalGator]

83. maybe you meant be competitive in 4 of the next 8?

Er, no "mission accomplished" on that front either. Looks like 7 blowouts and one close state (ME).

[Yael]

85. Looks like 0-5 now with the Potomac Primarys on Tuesday!

[BringBigDogBack]

87. Good call!

[tgnyc]

88. D'oh!

[Hart2008]

89. 0 for 5 now with little hope in the next three!

I hope you didn't double down after losing the first four.

[mrgorth]

90. What would be funny

is if NM comes in today. Kicked.

[sfam]

91. Are you managing my stock portfolio by any chance?

I ask because your prognostication results are remarkably similar to my earnings!

[snooper2]

92. So how those predictions work out?

?

[MrsT]

93. OK OK OK. I was really, really wrong. I admit it.

I am blown away that the Clinton campaign appears to be following the Rudy Giuliani strategy of creating a firewall very far down the road, all the while big defeats are coming in. It is a bad strategy, and I'd love for someone to tell me she has a better one in place right now.