intrade.com: Hillary below 40%

[thesubstanceofdreams]

intrade has been a rollercoaster this primary seasons, but at this point in time it tells us that the people out there believe Obama is more likely to win the nomination by a 60%-40% margin (in fact slightly bigger margin right now).

[ananda]

1. hmm

Obama looks strong right now.

[Unsane]

2. wow...

[Renew Deal]

3. Then Obama is doomed.

Intrade has been wrong all year.

[suston96]

4. Yeah, get that headline ready: "Obama wins!"

[joshcryer]

5. GOOG is down from $700 a few weeks back.

:shrug:

[jimbot]

6. It is time sensitive

As I've stated before regarding intrade and futures markets, they gain accuracy at predicting events when two things happen.
1. You get more people purchasing contracts.
2. You get closer to the date.

A very loose interpretation would be reading it as "if the election were held today"...the election isn't today, intrade will swing, but as we get closer to the final date, the swings will be lower and the accuracy will increase.

--JT

[jlake]

7. Wow. Hopefully he'll get back up to 80% - like he was before NH.

:evilgrin: