As the vote totals come in tonight you'll see why Hillary cannot win the nomination.

[joshcryer]

She'll be behind easily by 100 pledged delegates, and PA, OH, and TX will not be able to bring her out of this extreme deficit. It just isn't mathematically possible when PA and OH will split for Obama, and TX will mostly split for Obama since it is a hybrid election (she'll fare well in the primary there but he'll win the most caucuses). I don't even have to do the numbers. It's as clear as the writing on the wall.

[AX10]

1. ....

What are you talking about?

[joshcryer]

2. What isn't clear in what I'm saying?

[AX10]

3. Will PA/OH/TX split for obama 50/50?

[joshcryer]

8. Pretty much. Obama has two weeks to campaign for TX and OH.

TX will lean in Hillary's favor because of the latino vote, but Obama should even be able to chisel that away.

[tekisui]

27. And, most likely, have that ol' Momentum from this weekend and this month.

[KittyWampus]

4. I think she'll surprise us in a few states.

[bilgewaterbill]

9. I think she's surprising us with how poorly she's performing in Nebraska.

[splat]

51. Yeah, Nebraska's corn stalks aren't turning out for Hil

[bilgewaterbill]

53. Washington seems to be going heavily for Obama, too.

Exit polls in Louisiana look like 3 BIG wins for BO tonight.

[Donkeykick]

28. Me Too!

[ShortnFiery]

5. But HRC will line up "royalty" - in the form of "super delegates" to push her over the top?

:eyes:

That should go over real well with us "unwashed masses" who mistakenly BELIEVE that we actually get to have our votes count. :(

[jgraz]

7. Either that or she'll have to find another reporter to call Chelsea a whore.

[joshcryer]

11. Please don't trash up my thread.

[jgraz]

33. Hey, I'd love for this issue to go away

If only the Clintons will let it.

[AX10]

39. Had this been said about Obama's wife or child...

we would never hear the end of it from you sobs.

[jgraz]

45. Wrong. Obama would have handled it and the issue would have gone away.

Besides, the only people attacking Obama on his race are the Clintons.

[anamandujano]

60. Just like he handled his phony racism issue, whining.

You guys assume too much.

Have faith in the lord, but tie up your camel.

[joshcryer]

64. I hope you guys are done trashing this thread now.

Hopefully.

[caligirl]

74. sobs???? Most of us Edwards and Obama's supporters agreed that it shouldn't have happened, it was

wrong. sobs??????? :eyes:

[AX10]

17. Let's see how all you Obamanistas

react in the fall when the media has their knives out for him.

[jgraz]

22. Oh, there will be knives. And Obama will handle them with a helluva lot more grace

I don't agree with all of his politics, but at least I won't get that skeevy, gotta-take-a-shower feeling from him.

[joshcryer]

25. I thought you wrote, "sweaty, gotta-take-a-shower feeling"...

...and that you had the hots for Hillary and was so confused. :rofl:

[jgraz]

30. Augh! Now I really DO need a shower!!

:rofl:

[Ken Burch]

81. They'll be just as out for HRC and you know it.

And Obama supporters will react a helluva lot faster than the Kerry campaign did last time or Gore before that. We know not to let RW slurs go unchallenged. It's only the Beltway types that back HRC that believe in the "don't fight back" approach.

[Andromeda]

73. You're really a POS.

:grr:

[joshcryer]

13. No, please stop pretending her pithy SD majority means anything. They'll vote for the pledged...

...delegate winner. And Hillary mathematically cannot keep up.

[splat]

52. Your state Dem leaders shouldn't be delegates?

You seem to think that good political organization is undemocratic.

[jgraz]

6. your mouth to the FSM's ears

Wait -- does the Spaghetti Monster have ears? Or just those meatball thingies?

[Radical Activist]

10. Its possible that Obama could be the presumptive nominee after 2/19

If he sweeps the Feb states. I'm not so sure if that's going to happen thought.

[cali]

12. I completely disagree. All of this is pointless

Neither can reach the number of delegates needed to win the primary without SDs. It's that simple. And she may win LA tonight.

[AX10]

14. Why do you think she'll win LA?

What are you seeing? Or is this just speculation.

[in_cog_ni_to]

16. Reported: Low voter turnout. n/t

[joshcryer]

19. It doesn't matter. Superdelegates will vote for the one with the most pledged delegates.

Please stop pretending Hillary has some sort of mind control over her superdelegates or that Obama won't chisel away at her superdelegate lead as he has been doing and continues to do for the past few weeks.

[cali]

29. huh' Stop projecting. I'm not saying that she has any power over

SDs. I do think thought that it's going to be really close and that she has just a good a chance at winning the most pledged delegates as he does.

[joshcryer]

37. I don't think so. I think she hopes for that, but do the math. Her only hope is TX, OH, and PA.

Otherwise she's pretty much done as the rest of the states will go to Obama.

He *will* bring down her numbers in OH and TX, this is undeniable. PA will probably not even be a contest.

She needs to get over 75% in those states to be competitive.

[DUgosh]

55. Texas for Hillary!!!!

It's not undeniable he will bring her numbers up. Have you been to Texas?

[in_cog_ni_to]

15. She's going to win Texas, Ohio and Pa. BIG...like Ca. and NY. Just watch.

:) Plus, she's going to win Maine tomorrow.

[joshcryer]

20. Obama has serious momentum which is undeniable even at this point.

[in_cog_ni_to]

35. Not in Texas, Pa. and Ohio. She'll win BIG. n/t

[joshcryer]

44. How? Obama consistantly destroys her poll numbers when he campaigns in a state.

MA was the only exception, as far as I can tell.

[jgraz]

47. He destroyed her in MA, too.

She just started with a huge lead and he played her to almost a draw. His NY showing was practically a win as well. Those two states cost Hillary a huge chunk of delegates she was counting on.

[anamandujano]

59. As I recall, voters destroyed his poll numbers as well hither and thither.

We'll have to wait until reality confronts us.

[joshcryer]

61. Well, watch the totals.

[goodgd_yall]

85. Some states will not be affected by Obama's campaigning

And Texas is one of them.

[Andromeda]

89. I don't buy it joshcryer,

Let's just wait and see. It could still go Hillary's way.

It's not over till it's over!

[mohc]

43. If Clinton wins OH and TX

by the same margin she won CA, which is certainly doable, she will gain about 29 delegates on him. She got about a 8.6% delegate gap from CA, and with 334 delegates between OH and TX, that comes out to a 28.9 gap. Clinton may very well enter March 4 with a 100 delegate deficit to Obama, and 30 or so delegates will not be enough to dent that. If March 4 turns this around for Clinton, she is going to need an Arkansas level win (which would be around a 181 delegate gap).

[goodgd_yall]

84. She'll win Pennsylvania too

Another state with a large number of delegates.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

18. okay Kreskin

[anamandujano]

57. LOL

That was my first thought.

Actually these kind of assertions are trying to create a mind set of defeat in our camp (the one with the superior candidate, Hillary.)

Like their leader, they never talk about anything but the horse race, hope and inspiration, mind-numbing to be sure.

[jackson_dem]

21. This is the third time Hillary has been pronounced dead by Obamites

1) New Hampshire
2) Super Tuesday
3) Now this

When will folks stop underestimating a woman who is tied for the lead despite having almost the entire msm against her and after being batterd by the rethugs since 1992?

[AX10]

23. Add the small left wing media too.

These bimbos --> Randi Rhodes, Rachel Maddow, Keith Olberman, Ed Schultz, Stephanie Miller, Kos, Huffpost, TPM
:argh:

[fenriswolf]

72. dont forget to add mike malloy to that list to

and instead of calling some of the best progessive voices in our corner bimbos you should re-evalute your opinion of your candidate or at least of those so called "bimbos"

[joshcryer]

24. I am a Hillary supporter, and I defend her very ardently when I can.

I think the MI/FL thing is atrocious, I think the trolling is abyssmal, I think that Hillary's health care, economic, immigration, and Iraq plans are superior to Obama's.

But I don't see her winning because of his current momentum. You don't draw 10k people to some place, consistantly, in every state, without having serious momentum.

[jgraz]

26. Yes, she's tied for the lead DESPITE being the frontrunner for over a year

with leads of up to 40 points AND having the most popular living president campaigning for her.

Doesn't it seem like the trend lines are working against you?

[joshcryer]

31. Well, Obama supporters are slightly schitzo.

They'll say Obama is winning and Obama is the underdog in the same sentence. Obama hasn't been the underdog since Iowa.

[jgraz]

38. Since I started as a Kucinich supporter, I have a different definition of "underdog"

Obama's dog looks pretty "over" from where I sit.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

34. She's ahead, but no one should walk into the nomination untested, even Clinton

[joshcryer]

40. I don't see her being ahead after Obama wins OH by like 45% and TX by like 40%.

[jgraz]

42. Is that likely? I've seen polling indicating quite the opposite.

[joshcryer]

46. We all saw the CA polls.

We know these polls are bunk.

[jgraz]

48. But CA has over 100,000 disenfranchised independents

Who knows where the election REALLY came out?

[jackson_dem]

36. She has won the most votes despite having the msm against her and high negatives due to the rethugs

That is amazing. Her 2007 leads were always going to decline as voting began. Besides, the person who knocked her off her pedestal wasn't Obama. It was the man in your avatar.

[jgraz]

41. She should be running away with it by now

I think her story this year is going to be one of collapse, not one of beating the odds.

[anamandujano]

58. Millions upon millions of campaign dollars, plus a fawning media

working against you does not ever result in "running away with it by now."

MSM worked hard to create that hurdle for her and you bought it. She knew better and continued to work hard for every vote. Deal, if you can.

[joshcryer]

79. Completely agree the MSM created this "horse race," but I think they know who they want to win.

And it isn't HRC.

[ShadowLiberal]

32. Wait for the results to come in

I forget the actual pledged delegate totals right now before factoring in tonight's vote, but I think Obama's up by something liek 25 pledged delegates, and I don't think he'll capture that many more delegates then Hillary.

A political analyst on the news just said that Obama can be expected to gain around 35 more delegates then Hillary tonight.

Oh and to the person who said that Hillary should win Maine, Maine is a caucus, and Obama tends to do well in caucuses. I think Hillary has even admitted she'll probably lose Maine.

[Andromeda]

90. That's true.

Causus' don't favor Hillary but primary's do. My money is still on Hillary.

[NoPasaran]

49. Just one comment

Don't overestimate the caucus part of the Texas primary. What will happen on the evening of March 4 is just the first stage of a three-tier process that won't result in any delegates for anyone until the state convention three months later. It's a system designed to defeat insurgencies.

[AX10]

50. So that could work against insurgent Obama then.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

54. It ain't over until the fat lady sings, darl'in

[DUgosh]

56. The fat lady

[joshcryer]

62. I'm on your side, but the fat lady has sung after tonight.

Hillary did better than I expected in some states, but it's not good enough, just looked over the delegate percentages. I'll post the math after Maine.

[joshcryer]

63. Kick for truth.

[HughMoran]

65. How do they determine a winner if neither can reach the 2025 threshold?

Clearly nobody will be able to reach this threshold with MI and FL delegates missing.

Will they just go with a majority of the remaining delegates or what?

[joshcryer]

66. Superdelegates will vote on pledged delegate majority.

Seating FL and MI will be a controversey, but I expect Obama to have such a pledged delegate majority it won't matter one iota.

[HughMoran]

67. I'm not sure he'll have a big enough lead to get 2025 without FL or MI

I haven't done the math, but I can't imagine him achieving more than a 150 delegate lead (including super delegates). Is that enough?

[joshcryer]

78. It's already been shown that he can't get 2025 with pledged.

Thus they're going to go on who has the most pledged delegates. I expect Obama to have a good 100 point spread, thus seating MI and FL won't be a big deal, and they'll probably get seated.

[joshcryer]

68. He picked up 100, just as I suspected he would.

I encourage all Hillary supporters to just give in.

[AtomicKitten]

69. No worries, I fully expect her to sue for the title.

[joshcryer]

75. Highly doubtful, but it's nice that you think so lowly of one of our two greatest candidates ever.

[AtomicKitten]

88. well -

She's already hinting at it with her demand to seat the MI and FL delegates. It is she that causes me to think so "lowly" of her. Get that part straight.

[joshcryer]

93. You're misinformed and manipulated by others here, she doesn't want to do any rule breaking.

People here want to spread this "evil" idea that she wants to break rules and do evil evil things. But the very idea that seating those delegates is evil is completely beyond me.

I believe that if neither candidate can seat them then they simply cannot win the nomination. It would be a brokered convention for sure.

[AtomicKitten]

95. Your concern is precious but you've got it completely wrong.

First off, they ALL agreed to the DNC rules about MI and FL beforehand, and now Hillary wants to change the rules in the middle of the game.

If she wants to count MI and FL, they need to allow the candidates to campaign, all names on the ballot, and do a re-vote. That is the democratic solution.

What Hillary wants to do is include totals in MI where all names weren't on the ballot and in both FL and MI where the candidates weren't allowed to campaign and where Hillary is hoping to skate on her name recognition alone.

Democracy. Look into it.

[joshcryer]

96. Dean and Pelosi were the ones who first said that they'd be seated.

So I don't know what the issue is. It's not like it was her idea or something. She just wanted to reassure those voters that she'd do her best to seat them.

[cbayer]

70. Not recommended. No value

[joshcryer]

76. Instead of worthless snarky replies you could say what you disagree with my analysis.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

71. Talk about counting your chickens before they've hatched....

He wins 3 states that Hillary didn't really try in and you have him winning the whole nomination.

[joshcryer]

77. It's about delegate counts, he's ahead by 40-50 now. She can't make it up now.

Just math.

[1awake]

80. well Mister joshcryer,

As much as I'd like to agree with you, I don't think I can yet. If she does better than expected (realistically expected) in 3 or 4 states, she could of course win it. I respect Hillary Clinton, and I give her far more credit than to simply sit back this night and the next few and allow herself to drown in her own inaction.

[joshcryer]

92. Exactly, if she does better than expected, but she never does better than expected.

At most it's a wash. She's never gotten a state in the poll numbers 2 weeks out. This is a fact. Obama always closs the gap. OH and TX will prove it.

[goodgd_yall]

82. You do have to do the numbers

I don't come up with as optimistic (for Obama supporters) an outcome.

[Enrique]

83. Obama's the one that has no chance

do the math, it's as plain as the nose on my face.

[1awake]

86. don't post crap like this..

its just as bad as when the others do it to Hillary, and just as untrue.

[grizmaster]

87. Alright, it's clear you flunked math

care to show us what other subjects you failed?

[joshcryer]

91. I failed history, I'm pretty good at math, and watching the numbers come in.

Just kicking so this doesn't get archived.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

94. If Obama Does Lose PN, TX, And OH Which Is Not Guaranteed

The Superdelegates will have to think long and hard about what they are going to do especially with FL and MI floating in the ether...

They will have a hard time not awarding the nomination to a person who won the pop vote by a million votes or so...

That being said, everything I said is academic if she doesn't win OH, PN, and TX...