Do we all still think Hillary is going to win Maine tomorrow?

[sfam]

I'm not looking for chest puffing, but am seriously wondering. I was under the impression that she is supposed to win this - am I wrong? I ask because I see a number of threads saying Obama is easily going to win everything from now till March 4.

Anyone have any polls from the last day or so (as if these mean anything)?

[MadBadger]

1. No polls, but I think Obama wins by four.

[sfam]

2. Are you thinking Obama gets the Big Mo from tonight? nt

[MadBadger]

Well yes, but I just dont see how this is such a pro-Hillary state.

[NWHarkness]

20. Usually, Maine votes like New Hampshire

So that's one reaon the pundits think Clinton is favored.

An interesting factor will be how French catholic voters go. Most people think they'll favor Hillary, and that means she takes Lewiston big. But who knows?

[gateley]

13. Yes (even though you weren't asking me). nt

[JVS]

3. Is Maine winner take all?

[MadBadger]

11. No state is winner take all.

[JVS]

16. In the GOP Maine Primary it looked to be winner take all

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=ME

Of course, our rules might be different.

[MadBadger]

28. Our rules are different.

[JVS]

31. ok thanks

[sfam]

15. Not at all, but...

If Hillary loses Maine, I think her outside shot at Virginia pretty much goes up in smoke. And if Obama sweeps here, it will be really hard for Hillary to stop him in Wisconsin, which of course would make Obama's chances of winning in Texas better.

But if Hillary wins Maine, even if there are no real delegate advantages, I think she can make the case that she's still in the game for the upcoming states prior to March 4.

[JVS]

23. I agree. If she wants to stop a chain of dominoes from falling, she needs a win somewhere in the...

line.

[Windy]

4. I don't ever count on anything. To do so, is to become weak in the fight in my opinion. n/t

[NJSecularist]

5. If Hillary's camp is sweating, then you know all you need to know about Maine

She isn't the prohibitive favorite that everybody thought she was.

[NWHarkness]

6. Polls wouldn't matter anyway

When you are expecting to double or even triple previous turnouts, accurate polling is impossible.

We had about 160 here (Belfast Me) in 2004, we are expecting between 300-400 tomorrow.

[sfam]

32. great point...the turnout totals pretty much kill polls...nt

[VolcanoJen]

7. Hillary does great back east.

I think it will be a nailbiter.

[Colobo]

8. Hillary will win tomorrow by 5%.

[book_worm]

9. We will find out soon enough.

[graywarrior]

10. Mainers aren't swayed the way we think they should be.

They're such independent thinkers. Could go either way.

[skooooo]

12. Maine is a caucus..

...I thought Obama was favored.

[TexasObserver]

14. I suppose she could win Maine, but I think he'll win it.

Anywhere he gets sufficient coverage and time to meet the public, he wins.

[WillyT]

17. Some Analysis For You:

Link: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4503013&mesg_id=4503013

:shrug:

[sfam]

27. Thanks! I guess there just isn't anything definitive about...

these smaller states. We get spoiled by the early contests...I don't think the news organizations were really prepared for the race to go this far.

[scheming daemons]

18. Election markets have Obama trading at 67 for Maine, Hillary at 40...

...so the money is on Obama.

[Bonobo]

19. Maine is a conservative east coast state. Hillary will win.

[bilgewaterbill]

21. Intrade has Obama a near 3-to-1 favorite today.

Up a bit from yesterday. They were way wrong on New Hampshire, however.

[sfam]

24. Intrade is pretty much discredited I think...they are as bad on politics as

most regular people are on the stock market. The initial allure of this idea made sense, but clearly they are truly poor predictors.

[sfam]

22. Is Hillary spending money in Maine - ads and staff?

Anyone know this?

[NWHarkness]

26. Yes.

We are getting a lot of ads for both candidates on the Bangor stations.

[sfam]

30. Cool - thanks! What's your feeling on the ground there?

Do you see real support for one or the other? How's the local coverage playing this?

[NWHarkness]

33. I think the local coverage has been very fair

Good coverage both campaign's events, nice interviews. Maine people have great bullshit detectors, and the local media knows it.

Here in Waldo county, I predict a solid Obama win. Dems here are generally very progressive. If Kucinich and Edwards were still in it, they'd both draw heavily here.

Statewide, I think it will be close, but Portland and Lewiston are the big Dm strongholds and from what I hear, both favor Clinton.

[meow mix]

25. itll be too close to call forever...

and then hillary will win by like 100 votes. that would really suck badly and its kinda what i expect.

[Quixote1818]

29. Who won the NH counties on the Maine border? nt

[Guaranteed]

34. Yeah, I'm thinking Clinton by about 20. nt