Why McCain /repub's won't win

[1awake]

I know some of you don't like me because I'm a recent convert from the repubs. Some of you think of me as evil for voting for Bush in 2000. Heck, I'm sure there's afew who think I could be a freeper pretending. I guess only time will tell on that one for you guys. I don't know you all really yet, but I do know politics some, and I do know the republican party even more, so this is why I believe the GE is sitting there waiting for the Democrats to win.. or to lose.

It's fairly clear that McCain is going to win the repub nom. All the controversy you see about this.. the apparent dislike by the talk show people and some of the elite's in the party is NOT a smokescreen. McCain has been labeled a "maverick" for years now. What is a maverick? Well.. in this case, it's someone who votes/acts in a different manner than the norm for this specific group. And that's what McCain is known for. Voting against conservative items and ideas on occasion is his MO. It is also his MO to criticize members of his own party. They fought McCain's campaign in earnest up until this last week. At that point, Many of the Repub's party's high-ups saw the writing on the wall, and put out the word for everyone to begin to back McCain regardless. There are still people bucking these orders to include some of the Radio people (though some of them have drastically toned down their displeasure since then). Another group still not backing him is the religious right. As late as 4 days ago, leader's in this group posted letters advising they would never support him... how long their convictions will last we will see.
But the real question is what all the people in the middle are going to do. Many of the die-hard blue collar repubs are planning on sitting this election out if McCain wins the nom, my brother included. They see it as a moral stand in defense of their party. Then there's the.. whats a good term for them.. I'll use Ragean Democrats who are still over on the right. They are disenchanted with how things have gone under Bush, and are leaving quietly in droves. Some will sit out the election, some are taken with Obama, and some will vote democrat regardless simply for change. Look at the primary results for evidence.. in those that were closed, turn out for the repubs has been not just low, but outrageously low. In open primaries, Democratic primaries are through the roof while the repubs remain extremely low.

The question remains one for the Democrats. I will say that the rw is loving, and even depending on the "apparent" fracture within the Dem party to last. They believe it will give them a chance to regroup enough to potentially form a solidified front. It is true they fear Obama more than Hillary simply because they think she might cause their party to unite against an old foe, but in all honesty, they fear both to almost the same degree. But again, it will be up to the Democrats to back in force whoever wins our nom in the GE. If this happens, we will win if not by a landslide, then by enough to show a clear mandate.. one that can't be sidestepped, argued with, altered or ignored.

This is all simply my thoughts and opinions based strongly on my irreversible mistake of spending to much time and effort, on the wrong side of the isle. Good luck to both Hillary and Obama.

[NastyRiffraff]

1. Thanks for your perspective

I've heard similar analyses from other (ex) Republicans, too.

I truly hope all this vitrol will go away when we get a nominee. That said, DU isn't exactly representative of the Democratic electorate, so there's hope. I think we have two excellent candidates. Although I support one of them in the primaries, and will vote for her on Tuesday, I will definitely support, and work for, whoever wins the nomination. If it goes to a brokered convention, so be it; that's part of the process when there's no clear winner.

[mikekohr]

4. We Have Lost 7 of the Last 10 Presidential Elections

-Nasty, I Agree With Your Sentiment Wholeheartedly.- We are supporting different nominees at this point but in the end we will be united.

And I nearly agree 100% with the lead post of 1awake. I live in a downstate Illinois county that has been dominated by Republicans, non-stop, since the mid 1850's. However that dominance is waning fast. We, in Bureau County, had at least three Republican election judges pull Democrats ballots last Tuesday, and we out polled the Republican Party by over 1,000 votes (which is huge here).

I have been seeing genuine interest and support of Senator Obama here by Republicans whose families have voted Republican for generations. The reasons range from utter disgust with the direction of their party leadership, corruption in their elected ranks, and President Bush, all which is linked with their interest in the inclusive style of Senator Obama, his left of center voting record not-with-standing.

HOWEVER, these same converts invariably end their interest in voting Democrat with the words, "But if your nominee is Clinton....." Which is then usually followed up with invective ranging from intense dislike to blind hatred that borders on lunacy.

The new "Times," poll reflects what I am seeing locally. In head to head match-ups Senator Clinton is tied with Senator McCain but Senator Obama tops McCain by 7% points

It is the " middle middle," independents, moderates, and the ability to peel away a thin sliver of the opposing party's base that wins the White House. If our base was enough we would not have lost 7 of the last 10 races for the White House.

mike kohr

OBAMA '08 -Believe-

p.s. WELCOME 1awake! And while I don't speak for anyone but myself I like your perspective and admire your courage. If more people put principle before party we would not find ourselves in the mess we are in now.

[Skittles]

2. may I ask you something please

what exactly is it the blue-collars dislike about McCain so much they are willing to not goose-step to the party line (something I'm not even sure I really believe)? What "moral stance" do they have?

[Sadie4629]

6. Stem-cell research, global warming, taxes n/t

n/t

[Afje]

3. I would like to know

how those die-hard conservatives managed to support Bush for seven years, but balk at McCain. It's not as if Bush was a model of fiscal conservatism, has delivered anything tangible for the religious nutters or strenghened the military with his Iraq blunder. As it is now, some of the die-hards claim Bush isn't a conservative either, but that's just because he's going down the crapper fast.

[Sadie4629]

5. Regardless of who the Dem nominee is

expect the Repubs to pull out all the stops.

If it's Obama, you will hear "subtle" racism; they will emphasize the "Hussein" part of his name and bring back the rumor that he was educated in a madrassa; and, of course, they will bring up his voting record to prove that he is a wild-eyed lib.

If it's Clinton--well, some of them are salivating over the opportunity to vote against her.

All in all, this may end up being the nastiest general election in decades.

Last week I thought as you did, that McCain couldn't possibly win. But then I read a little about his speech to CPAC and some of the stuff that's been said since, and I've changed my mind. I DO think McCain can win. He will promise more SC justices like Alito and Roberts, he will emphasize his anti-abortion stand, and the conservatives and even the evangelicals will rally around him because his party affiliation is "not-Democrat."

[Window]

7. Thank you for sharing your perspective,

and your enlightening insights.

What bothers me more than anything, because I, too, believe we will unite behind the eventual Democratic nominee, are those Diebold machines and the other side's penchant for mucking it up. There's been so much infighting here on DU re the candidates that I rarely hear anything about the problems that have not been resolved with Diebold, etc. It used to be a passionate topic here.

I was excited about John Kerry in the last election and just knew he would win and look what happened.

Sorry for all the doom and gloom, but I just don't trust those Republicans.

On the other hand, they might be very happy for us to inherit Bush's mess and what seems like an impossible task to sift through and then blame it on the Democrats, because it will take years to undo all the harm he has caused.

Welcome aboard!


Peace:thumbsup: