What the Nominee will be up against come November:

[BooScout]

For all those thinking that a win in a state during the primaries means their candidate will take the state again come November.........think again..........and then think some more. What we are up against in November will still look very much like this (from 2004)

[VolcanoJen]

1. Not even remotely worried.

See all those blue states? Clinton or Obama need to win every one of those. No problem.

Now, look at all those red states. See Ohio? See Florida? All the nominee needs to do is win every blue state, and one of those two, Ohio or Florida. Again, I think this isn't really as complicated or difficult as it seems.

Especially considering Ohio's blue-trend... Senator Sherrod Brown whalloped the incumbent Republican Senator, Mike Dewine, in November of 2006. And Governor Ted Strickland beat Republican candidate Ken Blackwell in a landslide.

Things are looking up in November. It's all about Ohio, baby!

[Eric J in MN]

3. Wisconsin was close in 2004.

We can't just assume that the blue states will be easy.

[VolcanoJen]

7. It's SO different from 2004, though.

That election was ugly, and we were still licking our wounds from 9/11, something BushCo exploited to the max. Remember all those terror alerts that would come out every single time Kerry got a bump in the polls?

Four years after his re-selection, America got a good look at Bush and saw: Iraq crumble, deficits skyrocketing, the subprime mortgage crisis, record foreclosures and plummeting housing market, credit card interest rates skyrocketing, gas stuck at $3.00 a gallon, the corrupt Gonzales Justice Department, Blackwater... and have I mentioned Hurricane Katrina?

Bush is mired at 30% approval rating. Run against McCain like he's Bush in the fall, and this thing is gonna be a walk.

[Orangepeel]

6. Go Ohio! (We won't win Florida)

Even before the delegate debacle, we wouldn't have won. McCain will be able to associate himself more with Gov. Crist, who is very popular, than with bush.

I don't know Ohio, Missouri, Iowa and Virgina as well as I know Florida, but I think that all of those are strong possibilities.

[VolcanoJen]

8. Ohio is trending blue, and I agree with you it's the best November bet.

:bounce:

[kerry-is-my-prez]

34. We will w/Hillary. She got a lot of votes in the primary - even though it didn't count.

We have an older population who will vote for a person with experience.

[Orangepeel]

35. Not against McCain

The experience argument doesn't work against McCain. He'll get the republican vote, the military vote, the Cuban vote and do very, very well in the old person vote. The vote for McCain will be similar to the vote for Amendment 1.

Unfortunately, Florida is a lost cause this year no matter who our nominee is. Fortunately, we can win without it.

[lastliberalintexas]

15. I agree it's all about Ohio

Personally, I fear that McCain will win Florida rather easily, so I don't think it's a toss up this year. I think it boils down to Ohio.

How will either of the 2 remaining Dems fare in your state Jen? As an outsider, I also think Ohio is tending more moderately leftward, but I still fear the voting machines and media attacks still left to be endured by either. It's a long way until November.


I also think we *might* be able to squeak out Virginia, but again, November is a long way off.

[VolcanoJen]

22. Just as in 2000 and 2004, it's all about southwestern Ohio.

That also happens to be my part of the state.

I see Clinton having a bit of a tougher time against McCain in Dayton-Cincinnati. I've already talked to numerous Republican colleagues who are far more impressed by Obama and have no difficulty voting for him against McCain in the general election.

But, I really do think this is all about enthusiasm. One of the problems Kerry had in southwestern Ohio in 2004 was that, well, it was hard to get excited about him. I still contend that most of his votes were of the "anybody-but-Bush" variety. With the entire Democratic Party nationwide being jazzed and excited about Clinton and Obama this time around, I think it's possible our nominee can win Ohio by 6-8 points.

[lastliberalintexas]

26. Thanks so much for the info

:)

[ctaylors6]

2. 11 states had 5% or less difference; 10 more had difference between 5-10%

5% or less:
Wisconsin, Kerry, 0.38%
Iowa, Bush, 0.67%
New Mexico, Bush, 0.79%
New Hampshire, Kerry, 1.37%
Ohio, Bush, 2.11%
Pennsylvania, Kerry, 2.50%
Nevada, Bush, 2.59%
Michigan, Kerry, 3.42%
Minnesota, Kerry, 3.48%
Oregon, Kerry, 4.16%
Colorado, Bush, 4.67%

5%-10%:
Florida, Bush, 5.01%
New Jersey, Kerry, 6.68%
Washington, Kerry, 7.18%
Missouri, Bush, 7.20%
Delaware, Kerry, 7.60%
Virginia, Bush, 8.20%
Hawaii, Kerry, 8.75%
Maine, Kerry, 8.99%
Arkansas, Bush, 9.76%
California, Kerry, 9.95%

That's from wiki

[ctaylors6]

16. more numbers: this year's primaries for 15 closest states in 2004

Wisc 2/19 open primary
Iowa 1/3 Obama (caucus)
NM 2/5 Clinton (closed primary)
NH 1/8 Clinton (primary, dems +indeps)
Ohio 3/4 open primary
PA 4/22 closed primary
Nev 1/19 Obama (caucus)
Mich 1/15 ??
Minn 2/15 Obama (caucus)
Oregon 5/20 closed primary
Colo 2/5 Obama (caucus)
FL 1/29 ??
NJ 2/5 Clinton (open primary)
WA 2/9 Obama (caucus)
Mo 2/5 Obama (open primary)

ETA: Virginia 2/12, open primary

I cobbled this from a few places, so sorry for any mistakes! I thought it was interesting to have the real swing state info in one place.

[calico1]

4. I think that Fla, Ohio and Iowa can be in play

depending on the nominee and what happens from here to then. Also Colorado and NM are possibilities. But I think it is absurd to think we are going to win in Nebraska, Alaska or Idaho as some here have suggested. Just not happening. Fortunately they are not high in electoral votes.

[terrya]

5. All we need to do is win the same states in 2000 and 2004 and New Hampshire.

Which is tacking very Blue these days.

And the White House is ours.

I'm not too worried about it. Not complacent...but this could be a big year for us. Plus gains in the House and Senate.

[Orangepeel]

33. New Hampshire alone won't do it anymore

I believe they lost an electoral vote since 2000. But, we can get them and Missouri.

[polichick]

9. Which is why we need low Republican turn-out and...

...as many cross-over voters as possible. YES, WE CAN!

[BooScout]

10. Still thinking it will be easy?

Here's 2000:

[napi21]

11. "Very much likie" is probably true, but not exactly.

I think Va. could vote Dem, as well as NM. The one thing that you aren't taking into account is the HUGH Dem turnout in almost ALL the primarys/caucuses so far, compared to the Pubs #. I listen to cspan almost every AM, and it's astonishing the number of Pubs who call and say "If McCain is our nominee, I'll stay home!" If you can believe Russert and many of the other comentators, Huck CAN'T in THE nomination. He needs 900+ delegates, and there aren't that many left to be decided! I can't believe how many prominent Pub players absolutely HATE McCain!

I also think you are underestimating the degree of disgust that exists across the country for what the Shrub administration has done over the last 7+ years!

[Doctor_J]

13. ALso CO, NH, and OH

On the other side, what blue state is going to go for McCain? None.

[BooScout]

14. I'm underestimating nothing....

I take nothing for granted when it comes to Presidential Elections anymore. I just don't think it's going to be the cakewalk many here seem to think it's going to be...no matter which candidate takes the nomination.

[calico1]

21. I totally agree!

Whoever our candidate is needs to run like they are an underdog, no matter how good things look. I don't think it is a wise attitude to have to think that we are going to kick ass and it's going to be a cakewalk. A lot of people thought that the last two elections and look where we ended up. We must take nothing for granted nor get too cocky and overconfident.

[PaDem]

23. I'm beginning to agree with you................

I'm an Obama supporter at this point and I believe he has a much better chance to win the general election than does Clinton. However, they both face some challenges in a general election against McCain when one takes into consideration certain electoral realities.

One thing I think we did in 2004 was to focus too many resources in Florida, and to a lesser degree Ohio. If I were guiding the process, I'd focus less on those two states and more on VA, CO, NM, IA, and MO, making sure to hold Pennsylvania and Michigan. Bill Richardson as VP flips NM and greatly improves our lot with Latinos, which would be huge. I can't think of any other VP canidate who can give us what Richardson does electorally. I also think the above strategy at least in part is dependent on who wins the nomination. Should Hillary win, I'd probably focus intensely on Ohio and less so on say Colorado. It should be interesting, but anyone who says it's going to be a cakewalk is kidding themselves.

[napi21]

25. Oh goodness! I never said it was going to be a cakewalk!

But I also don't anticipate a nailbiter like we've had in 2000 and 2004! I realize a LOT can change in 9 months, but the entire Pub Party has been declining in popularity for at least 3 years or more. I think at the very least, there will be a decision on election night (or wee hours of the AM on the east coast) showing a demonstrated WINNER!

[cali]

12. this is NOT 2004.

Virginia has been trending dem. New Mexico has been trending dem. Ohio elected a dem governor and Sherrod Brown, one of the most liberal Senators in that body. Iowa is trending dem. You can't ignore the number of new registered dems or the fact that the repukes have been losing registered voters. Indies are trending dem in the primaries. There is no sitting president.

[BooScout]

17. The last time Virginia went for a Democrat was 1976

I doubt seriously it will go Dem this time.

[slick8790]

19. They have a Dem governor, elected a Dem senator in 2006, and are on track to elect another Dem

senator in 2008. I think it's a real possibility.

[cali]

20. Most analysts disagree with you

in part because of Mark Warner running for the Senate. He's 20 pts up on Gilmore and will win big. In addition, VA has been trending "purple". Read what Hart and Sabato have to say.

[ctaylors6]

18. It's not 2004, but the list of swing states won't be drastically different

[cali]

27. True. The difference is that there's a much, much better

chance of those swing states swinging dem. And that's a big difference.

[cottonseed]

24. Obama takes every Kerry state and more -

not too worried about the general - McCain will be on oxygen by then

[Avalux]

28. Texas will go BLUE if Obama is the nominee! Bookmark this - I'm calling it now.

:hi:

[ctaylors6]

29. I'm bookmarking! 2004 bush 61%, kerry 38%. I'm in texas NO WAY goes blue

[BooScout]

32. LMAO

You're a funny person.:silly:

[rug]

30. Yeah, but, look at this, for crying out loud.

[Yael]

31. There is no comparison

If the primary records hold through November, there will be double the turnout.