Semi-Bold Prediction Time.

[More Than A Feeling]

I started writing a version of this post the morning of Super Tuesday, when it looked like Barack Obama would trail Hillary Clinton by about 75 pledged delegates at the end of the night. I started again the following morning, when it be came clear that Obama's huge wins in caucuses propelled him to a small lead among pledged delegates. But now, with a win tonight in Maine finalizing a clean sweep of the weekends' contests, and polls showing him up big in Virginia (but that gap will probably narrow), it's time to finish writing this post, now that its conclusion has somehow become counter-counter-intuitive.

It's over. I'm calling it. When all is said and done, Barack Obama will have a Florida-and-Michigan-proof lead among pledged delegates (68 or more) to convince enough superdelegates to earn the nomination.

Even if Clinton manages a narrow loss, tie, or narrow win in Virginia, Barack Obama should win Maryland and DC handily. Combined with a likely big win in one of his home states (Hawaii), he'll have roughly a 100 delegate lead going into the Wisconsin primary. Let's be pessimistic and assume Obama loses by 15%. With 75 pledged delegates, that means his lead will drop to the high 80s.

We're now all the way to the Ohio and Texas primaries, with a total of 334 pledged delegates at stake. To claw back to a draw, Hillary Clinton will have to win a whopping 61% of them. There's no way that can happen; the only state where Clinton has managed a margin that large is Oklahoma. And remember, this is the pessimistic scenario; if Obama wins Virginia by 15% as polls indicate, and can play two out of three between Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to virtual draws, he'll have lead large enough that Clinton will have to pack it in.

http://www.cogitamusblog.com/2008/02/bold-prediction.html

:popcorn:

[K Gardner]

From your lips... :-)

[sfam]

1. Arkanssas...as well, but I agree...Obama is the frontrunner..nt

[tandem5]

2. she's the underdog nt

[Jackpine Radical]

3. I predict a Wisconsin win for Obama.

This is an open primary state, and the people I know who have announced their intentions to cross over from the right are going for Obama. Endorsements are pretty well split here. Barb Lawton, the Lieutenant Guv, and Tammy Baldwin have both endorsed Hill; Doyle, the Guv, is an Obamite. The heavily populated SE corner of the state, in Chicago's cultural shadow, will--I think--go Obama.

A week from Tuesday we'll know.

[More Than A Feeling]

5. Sounds pretty solid. The openness will help him most of all.

[Blarch]

4. Behold, our leader.

Let us prepare.