Reality check: Caucuses ARE undemocratic, but they benefit Clinton

[Dob Bole]

Let's take a look at the caucuses that Obama has won:

North Dakota
Minnesota
Iowa
Kansas
Nebraska
Colorado
Idaho
Washington
Alaska

What these states have in common is that they are rural (with Washington being the most urban), working class states mostly populated with persons of European descent. Obama's advantage among African-Americans that has developed since New Hampshire does not work to his advantage in these states. However, he is a senator from the Midwest, and his mother was from Kansas.

Caucuses are undemocratic because they can disenfranchise working voters. However, this works to Hillary's advantage because most of the people who attend caucuses are retired. (The average caucusgoer's age in 2004 was 54; See http://www.google.com/search?q=average+age+caucusgoers ) Most Democratic voters in any contest are women. So you have rural contests dominated by retired white women...Hillary's key demographic.

What has happened in this race that was unexpected is that young voters, especially college students who also have free time, have showed up in waves and registered to vote in the caucuses, outflooding Hillary's support.

Caucuses are undemocratic...but Hillary supporters cannot claim that they inherently work against Clinton. She has had all of the advantages in this race.

[ursi]

1. They did in Nevada!

[Dob Bole]

21. ...then this reinforces the point from post #4, I guess?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. What I can't figure out is why, after all these years, there are these complaints

about the caucus system. There is a valid argument that primaries are fairer because they allow for a larger window of time in which people can vote, instead of requiring that everybody show up for a particular, rather short time on a weekend or an evening. Obviously, some people will not be able to attend who would have been able to vote in a regular primary. And maybe the states that have them should switch over to primaries next time (I live in a caucus state and I like the fact that the process allows you to meet with your neighbors and discuss issues and party business. But I know not everyone can or wants to do this).

But even if caucuses do suck, why all of a sudden this time are there all these complaints? I've been attending them since 1972 and I've never heard any candidate or representatives of a candidate complain like this before.

[Dogmudgeon]

6. You probably weren't listening.

While everyone was busy screaming at Bill Clinton, they forgot something: South Carolina is one of several states that have gone from a caucus to a primary it the past 30 years. There has been plenty of criticism of the system, and it's a familiar topic of political science graduate work.

--p!

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

9. Perhaps on the state level (though I've haven't heard much here).

My point was, I've never before seen a candidate or that candidate's supporters complain so much about the caucus system. Even after Dean lost Iowa last time, I never heard that he ever claimed the caucus system was unfair. So is the Hillary campaign really concerned with the fairness of the process, or just unhappy that Obama's been winning?

[Dogmudgeon]

15. Are you sure it's a complaint?

Many Obama followers want to portray Team Hillary in as negative a light as possible. They also are trying to hold on to the psychological underdog position, but that won't be possible after Tuesday. Team Hillary is trying to work it to her advantage, the same as Team Obama would.

It's just a fact of life that the caucus system favors Obama. He uses a lot of enthusiastic group appeals, and it works well. There is no such thing as "fair" in politics.

There is, however, a real issue about Caucus systems, and they have been criticized for decades, but they don't attract much attention until there are close primaries, like now and in 2004. There are four more caucuses, and they should be held as planned. After the dust settles, there will be a chance to reform all the parts of primary season that need to be changed -- caucuses, superdelegates, the method of punishing states for going against the party, and so on.

The idea that "they don't matter" is likewise two-way spin. They matter, but they are small states. They count as much as they count.

I am sure that each candidate is concerned with the fairness of the system. But it's a little late to start in the middle of an election. The only benefit to it is to sway public opinion, and such issues usually don't work.

--p!

[JVS]

3. Holy shit! Imagine how poorly she'd do in those states if caucuses were fair!

[Bread and Circus]

4. You missed the memo...something becomes undemocratic once

Hillary loses in it and it doesn't matter what it is to the DU spinmasters.

just kidding :)

Seriously though, yours is an interesting analysis. Now don your flame retardant suit, you are about to "become" one of the following:

1.) undemocratic.
2.) a RW sympathizer
3.) a sexist.
4.) a Clinton hater.
5.) a cult member
6.) an Obamite (which means all of the above)

[Obamaniac]

10. If Hillary had lost primaries ten to one, her supporters would be...

...saying that primaries are undemocratic. They are just behaving like sore losers.

[Dogmudgeon]

5. That's twisting the truth until it cries

But I forget, crying is now verboten.

How about some truth now?:

1. The average age of the caucusers was 54 IN IOWA.

2. Cauci (?) allow much more influence of crowd enthusiasms. This is a strong point of Obama's strategy.

3. Caucusers tend to have more free time and much more interest in politics. They tend to be more middle-class than the population at large, with the Black community as he only exception; this demographic reality also favors Obama.

4. Now that Obama is pulling ahead, there is an effort to try to maintain the "underdog" position. But it won't work. The enthusiasm of Obamamania makes that impossible. The gloating here by some of his followers is a reflection of the negative effect of that. The constant accusations that Hillary is "whining" won't stick, either, since they will soon look petty. (Even more so than now.)

5. Hillary is going to be getting most of the "underdog juice" that has nourished Obama so well. After Wednesday, this contest will change in fundamental ways. Team Obama will have to adjust to it. It will be a test of his executive ability, a welcome happening to a candidate who has so far faced no tests.

--p!

[Dob Bole]

8. And the average age of other states?

I've analyzed based on the facts I have, and yet you seem to think that your predictions of the future are more accurate than my analysis of the past. The average age of caucusgoers, anywhere, is about the same as the average age of Senators.

[Levgreee]

12. No challenges? He came from about 20-30% behind

had some potentially sticky situations, such as Reagan comment, Hillary mailers giving misinformation...

[joshcryer]

7. Do you have any age statistics for caucus goers this election season?

Because I think you're out of your mind. In Maine the older caucus goers likely stayed home because of weather.

[papau]

11. the wealthy, the more well off retired, the college crowd, those not working and living off others -

are the caucus goers that swing these things to Obama

You do not see the old folks rejecting Clinton - anywhere - not one state.

Indeed those with "things to do - like work or volunteer projects or church duties - can't get to the caucuses - leaving disproportionate numbers of atheist, wealthy, non-working as in college, and especially in the Red states that are the majority of Obama's states (he has won only 5 blue states) we find the very very liberal that can't deliver their state because they will not work with the center.

But of course red state wins are described as ability to reach out to independents and Republicans - despite the lack of same in the voting totals in a Democratic primary.

And did I mention party rules that allow those not on the state voting rolls to vote - leading to the "bused in from out of state" and "students from out of state domination of caucus" claims (God only knows how true).

[Dob Bole]

14. What? Who has church duties that keep them from going to the polls?

I was an intern at a church for a couple of years...and they would let me leave and vote!

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

17. Demographics you forgot

Drugs addicts, sex offenders, vampires, Nazis, and those working against the interests of the physically disabled.

But I'd be angry if I was getting laughed out of this election, too.

[Dob Bole]

19. Is that...the captain of Sealab?

It is! R.I.P.!

[dsc]

13. Iowa has one of the highest average ages in the nation

so no matter what kind of contest it is, the average age would be high.

[Dob Bole]

18. ...and it was the closest that Clinton has gotten in one of these caucuses

...thus proving my point. She came within 9 percent on that one.

[Egalia]

16. Oh Please,

The average caucusgoer's age in 2004 was 54, in Iowa?

That says absolutely nothing about the gender of those who actually showed up in 2004, or in 2008. Did you happen to hear that there was a radically larger number of caucus-goers in 2008 than ever before?

And did you happen to hear that this year there was a dramatically larger number of young caucus-goers than ever before?

Nice try.

[Dob Bole]

20. I reread my OP to see what made you so confused as to misrepresent what I said...

but I couldn't find it.