To Hillary supporters - keep your eye on the prize

[ruggerson]

Don't forget. None of what occurred this weekend or what will occur on Tuesday was a surprise. This is a calendar driven season. Obama happened to have a string of caucuses and primaries that are favorable to his candidacy in the month of February.

Hillary has a far more favorable calendar in March.

The Obama campaign and much of the media will try to play this up as indicative of momentum, but remember that none of this is surprising and momentum is all in the eyes of the spinner. Hillary won the popular and the delegate vote on Super Tuesday and there were still people spinning that somehow she didn't.

Three weeks can change a lot in politics.

Ohio and Texas are three weeks away.

[AX10]

1. K & R!

[muntrv]

2. March is favorable to Hillary? Sounds like something I'd hear from psychic

friends network.

[TheDeathadder]

5. Nope everyone knows she'll do well in March

Just like everyone knew a month back Obama would do well In Feb. Nothing psychic about it.

[Sapphocrat]

8. Then you don't listen to The Lehrer NewsHour. n/t

[earthlover]

10. Yeah...I would call this MARCH MADNESS!

[robbedvoter]

3. Yup. "Democrat for a Day" states. I know.

[JVS]

6. TX and OH are bluest of the blue

[dsc]

9. Ohio

has four of its top five statewide offices held by Democrats (Gov., Sec of State, AG, Treasurer), one Democratic Senator, and a close to evenly divided Congressional delegation despite some of the worst gerrymandered districts in the nation. I wouldn't sneeze at the Democrats of Ohio.

[newmajority]

36. Texas??

The state that elected Chimp Bush and Rick Perry to the Governor's office??
The state that elected John "box turtle" Cornyn and Kay Bailey Hutchinson?

Yeah, that's blue.

[avrdream]

45. There have been a lot of HRC supporters there for quite a while now.

I lived there for 8 years and those Dems are very loyal and very stubborn. Hispanics love Hillary as well. Barring some more media fiascos, Texas should go to Hillary.

When is the Rezko trial starting? That will make news.

[JVS]

67. I was being facetious

[TheDeathadder]

4. Pennsylvania too!!

[kikiek]

7. Looking forward to them!

[MoonRiver]

11. Thank you!

:hug:

[JimGinPA]

21. Not to flame or anything...

But you do see the irony of having a Hillary avatar & a pic of Gore in your sig?

[adapa]

12. two words---phone bank----join me

lot's of time on the phone in my future

Join me!!

[goldcanyonaz]

16. Great job, Adapa! Off to the phones we go.

[earthlover]

13. The Spin Award goes to....

"....The Obama campaign and much of the media will try to play this up as indicative of momentum, but remember that none of this is surprising and momentum is all in the eyes of the spinner....

So winning a bunch of states by huge margins is not momentum. But beware that some folks will call it that. (Hint: emporer is not naked, only bad folks who claim it to be so). And of course if it is predicted, and not surprising, it cannot be momentum. So momentum ceases to be momentum if it is predicted! WOW! We have a perfect Orwellian dynamic: first of all, deny reality--up is down, momentum is not momentum. But then again, if momentum is predicted, it....poof!....ceases to be momentum!

The spin cycle is on!

[ruggerson]

19. As I said

she won Super Tuesday and your crowd tried to spin that she didn't. What I'm doing is un-spinning. But keep at it, it's enjoyable to watch.

[earthlover]

29. I don't have "a crowd" and I never claimed anything about Super Tuesday....

...so please quit fighting a straw man already!

I was observing the spin cycle on over-drive! It is a sight to behold!

[ruggerson]

30. I agree. It is.

Hence this post deconstructing it.

[earthlover]

35. Here is my fav quote for the nite again....

"....The Obama campaign and much of the media will try to play this up as indicative of momentum, but remember that none of this is surprising and momentum is all in the eyes of the spinner...."

The spin cycle on over-drive. Laughable. Even more so to think it was seriously said....

[ruggerson]

39. Like I said

Keep at it - it's fun watching you trying to re-spin fact.

[earthlover]

50. So if quoting you twice is "respinning"....enough said!

[ruggerson]

51. It wasn't the quotation

that I was referring to.

Either time.

[earthlover]

56. So...you totally ignored my central arguement to go into la la land?

[ruggerson]

58. You had a central arguement (sic)?

[earthlover]

66. Yes I did and you bragged about ignoring it....

You said...""....The Obama campaign and much of the media will try to play this up as indicative of momentum, but remember that none of this is surprising and momentum is all in the eyes of the spinner...."

And I pointed out how this was the spin cycle gone berserk.

Enjoy your spinning.

Fact of the matter is Obama does have some momentum, regardless of whether it was predicted. This "prediction" is just campaign-bs of "lowering expectations". Well, they are lowered alright. By Hillary.

[ruggerson]

70. And I pointed out

that I was un-spinning the media/Obama spin. I did not ignore your point, I disagreed with it.

[rodeodance]

26. :-)

[yellowcanine]

14. If you whistle loudly enough you won't even see that graveyard over there.

Course up to last night she was "supposed" to do well in Maine also. And funny I don't remember hearing anyone saying that Obama was going to be sweeping caucuses and primaries in Feb. 

[adapa]

17. ahh, O's people are showing up with the disrespecting

[yellowcanine]

31. I will take that as a direct hit thank you, One battleship sunk.

[adapa]

33. battleship..?.. Oh, right, the childs game

[yellowcanine]

41. Whatever. This is a "whistling past the graveyard" thread.

Clinton was "supposed" to win Maine. She lost, rather handily.

Clinton changed campaign managers today. Campaigns that are going according to plan do not change campaign managers mid stream.

And the last candidate who deployed the "wait and see" strategy in this primary season was a guy named Guiliani. So if that is what Hillary is doing I would not put a whole lot of trust in that. Anyway, Clinton has been campaigning hard in the mid-Atlantic states. We will see what happens in Maryland and Virginia on Tuesday.

[adapa]

59. ahh yes, walking away- good idea

[rodeodance]

25. Are you not able to READ-- or is COMPREHENSION the problem for you-its say HILL SUPPORTERS-SCRAM

[yellowcanine]

27. Sorry I was not aware that DU required a loyalty oath before posting on theads directed to Clinton

supporters. Nor have I noticed any shyness from Clinton supporters about posting on threads directed at Obama supporters. Do you have any idea how middle school cliquish you sound?

[rodeodance]

40. You are SPAMMING a thread designed for Supporters. If you behave then you are welcome

[yellowcanine]

42. And you don't know what the word SPAM means. By definition A thread cannot be SPAMMED.

And what the heck do you mean by "behave"? This is a discussion board, not an "agree or shut up board."

[rodeodance]

62. OK--THEN STOP POOPING ON THE THREAD--SCRAM!

[yellowcanine]

68. Oh my, Read much Stalin? It is a discussion baard, not an "agree or get lost board".

If you don't want to read my posts, put me on "ignore" but you don't have the right to control the thread just because a post disagrees with the OP. This is not the private Clinton supporter sandbox.

[goldcanyonaz]

15. Thanks for this Ruggerson. It's been a tough run on this forum as a Clinton supporter, but you

make it worth it.

:hug:

[rodeodance]

23. and back to you on that thought:-)

[goldcanyonaz]

24. Thanks Rodeo, you're the best!

:loveya:

[judaspriestess]

18. .........

:thumbsup:

[rodeodance]

20. thanx--yes--its rather a slow time right now--but she is out there working away

[TankLV]

22. Ghoulillani's the one! McInsane is out! Fuckabee's toast!

we know how valid current spasms of "wisdom" are...

[rodeodance]

28. Ohio loves Hillary Clinton!--SEE THIS:

Forum Name Ohio
Topic subject Ohio loves Hillary Clinton!
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=172x23132#23132
23132, Ohio loves Hillary Clinton!
Posted by liberalnurse on Sun Feb-10-08 02:24 PM

My friend Jerid, he manages the Buckeye State Blog.............He did a little research regarding the Ohio Super delegates at the end of January.

Clinton is loved! :loveya:

http://www.buckeyestateblog.com/ohios_super_delegate_invisible_primary

As of January 28th, the Buckeye State Blog predicts Ohio's Super Delegates will break*:

Clinton: 8
Obama: 3
Toss Up: 9

Let me share with you.............the Toss-up votes of yet...............they'll go to Clinton, they just maybe holding out for the fun of it. That is how I know and see it. The only exception, Chairman Redfern, who is a close friend of John Edwards and an extremely savvy politician in his own right....he will really hold out for the power play. I love this guy!

snip>

Ohio's "Super Delegate" Invisible Primary

Submitted by Jerid on Mon, 01/28/2008 - 11:43am.

Obama agrees, we're in a race for delegates at this point. Nearly every other commenter nationwide is saying the same thing too. Folks are talking about the proportional delegate division system, and who gets what, blah blah blah. And in the periphery vision of everyone paying attention to this wild ride is the question of who gets the 796 superdelegates.

Superdelegates of course are Congresscritters, Governors and party leaders. And folks are giving this whole backdoor jostling a name: "The Invisible Primary"

In Ohio we've got 162 delegates up for grabs. Of those, 141 are "pledged," meaning they'll be tied to a candidate in one way or another depending on how March 5th primary goes. But that leaves 21 delegate slots open from the Ohio convention.

Since every delegate vote could have an immense impact on how the nomination process goes, who are these mysterious Ohio delegates and who are they going to vote for? Good question.


Welcome to the Ohio backdoor primary.

Every Ohio Congressman gets a vote at the convention. So where will our Congressional Delegation land? Here's BSB first of many roundups leading up to the March Primary and the convention

I. Ohio Congressional/Gubernatorial Delegate

OH-6: Charlie Wilson
No endorsement yet. BSB prognosis: "Toss Up"


OH-9: Marcy Kaptur
No endorsement yet. Sources suggest Clinton lean. However, she might see similarities between her first Congressional bid and Obama's outside candidacy. BSB Prognosis: "Toss Up"


OH-10: Dennis Kucinich
May vote for self. Will not endorse Clinton. Urged supporters to choose Obama as second choice in Nevada. Toss up between self/Obama. BSB prognosis: "Lean Obama"



OH-11: Stephanie Tubbs Jones
(Vote doesn't count in congressional delegation, instead goes to DNC delegation)

OH-13: Betty Sutton
No endorsement yet. Sources suggest Clinton lean. BSB prognosis: "Lean Clinton"


OH-17: Tim Ryan
Endorsed Dodd early on. No endorsement in contest yet. Lean unknown. BSB prognosis: "toss up"


OH-18: Zack Space
No endorsement. Could potentially be hurt in Congressional race with Clinton at top of ticket. BSB prognosis "Lean Obama"

Senator Sherrod Brown
Sherrod has said repeatedly to the press he will remain neutral in this race. Still, things change. Sherrod's office in the Dirksen Senate building is right next to Hillary's, so they've developed a relationship already in the Senate. Still, the Clinton's past history on trade has to leave a sour taste in Sherrod's mouth. That alone could swing him to the Obama camp. BSB prognosis: "Toss up"


Governor Strickland
Endorsed Clinton in December. BSB prognosis: "CLINTON"


II. 11 Unpledged DNC Ohio Committee Members.
These folks get a vote at the convention too.

Chris Redfern, ODP Chairman
Wouldn't you like to know where the chairman's at. I sure would. Redfern's into the power, and he's being careful not to give any signs of impropriety. Plan on him to hold his support out as long as possible, unless he can get something mighty fine for it. I believe 'Fernsy leans Edwards though. BSB prognosis: "Toss Up"


Rhine McLin, ODP Vice Chair, Dayton Mayor
Team Clinton took care of Rhine back in her early days, going so far as to send Terry McAuliffe in to Dayton in the 90's to catapult her into her Mayoral seat. She knows she owes a debt to the Clintonistas, one in which they'd like paid in full now. The Clinton's have been courting McLin via phone contact since early last year. However, her father, the late State Senator C.J. McLin is one of the fathers of the Ohio Congressional Black Caucus and a monumental figure in Ohio and African American politics. No doubt this history ways on McLin as she struggles between Obama and Clinton. This rating might be the most volatile of all of the Ohio SuperDelegates. BSB prognosis: "Lean Clinton...ever so slightly"

Ron Malone, Formerly of OAPSE
Former Ohio Director of AFSCME United before the big split. AFSCME has been bussing folks all over to support Clintons Ohio campaign. The national AFSCME has also endorsed Clinton. Now at OAPSE, Malone is looking out for Ohio education workers. Clinton has the backing of other unions involved with public schools, expect at the very least Malone to follow suit. Malone's ready to have Bill back. BSB prognosis: "CLINTON"

Bill Burga, Former President Ohio AFL-CIO
Like Ron Malone and the rest of Ohio labor, Burga has strong ties to the Clintonistas having helped carry the state for Bill in '92 and '96. Expect Burga to stay with his friends, unless something big changes. BSB prognosis: "Lean Clinton"

Sonny Nardi, Ohio Teamster "Drive" Campaign
I have little to no information on Nardi's leanings. Those in the know, please help me out here - confidentiality guaranteed. BSB prognosis: "Toss Up"

Mark Mallory, Mayor of Cincinnati
Mayor of the 'Nati. Mallory has been heavily recruited by both Team Clinton and Obama. He's suggested an endorsement is coming soon. BSB sources have suggested Mallory leans Obama. BSB prognosis: "Lean Obama"

Stephanie Tubbs Jones, DNC Delegate and OH-10 Congresswoman
On board with Team Clinton for months serving in a national leadership role. BSB prognosis: "CLINTON"

Pat Moss, Retired President of AFSCME Council 8
As mentioned previously, AFSCME has had a strong presence in supporting Hillary's Ohio campaign already (notably bussing Clinton supporters to the OH-15 pre-primary caucus). Currently I expect Moss to break for Team Clinton. BSB prognosis: "Lean Clinton"

Enid Goubeaux, Darke County Democratic Party Chair
Enid was a Clinton delegate all the way back during the '96 campaign. The ties to the Clinton camp run deep here. Expect this one to stay with the longtime favorite. BSB prognosis: "Lean Clinton"

??????, At-Large Member of the DNC from Ohio
There is an At-Large member of the DNC from Ohio whose identity I have been unable to locate. I'm still waiting for word back on the party on who this might be. When I've identified them, the tallies will be updated. BSB prognosis: "Toss Up"


III. Redfern's Lackeys

Ohio's delegation rules also permit party chair Chris Redern to add-on two unpledged delegates of his choice. Expect these folks to break for whichever candidate Redfern supports. Also, if Redfern remains uncommitted past their May appointment, they could be a good window into who he leans to support.

Redfern Lacker #1
BSB prognosis: "Toss Up"

Redfern Lackey #2
BSB prognosis: "Toss Up

[adapa]

32. gotta love the specifics- thanks

[ruggerson]

72. ty

[newmajority]

34. So if Hillary loses every contest in February, she should stay in the race?

And this is coming from the people who wanted Obama to drop out after New Hampshire??

[ruggerson]

43. What "people" is that?

I don't use derogatory names for Obama supporters, but I frequently have them tossed at me.

I"ve never said he should drop out. On the contrary, I've frequently said he's running a good campaign.

I have sincere concerns about him and his agenda, which I've expressed in detail.

And I think Senator Clinton would be a far more courageous and aggressive POTUS.

[rodeodance]

57. Your imagination is getting away from you.

[Dogmudgeon]

37. One word: Overconfidence.

That's all.

--p!

[yellowcanine]

46. I agree. Hillary's campaign was overconfident and is now in the fight of its life.

And not handling it very well. New campaign manager on board today. Not a sign of things going well at all.

[onetinsoldier]

65. hillary's campaign

she is in big trouble and knows it,watch for some dirty pool

[Yossariant]

38. We hear ya, Ruggerson, and "heartily" agree. Nosurprise. No demise.

Keep up the good work.

:toast:

[rodeodance]

61. ~ALL FIRED UP-FOR THE LADY~

[x-g.o.p.er]

44. Three weeks can change a lot in politics is true...

BUt if the MSM has three weeks to portray Obama with momentum, he can get traction in at least one of her firewall states, maybe both, and fight her to a draw, which at this point is an Obama victory.

Three weeks is an eternity, one that I don't think HRC can survive without some seriously positive news.

[nomorewhopper]

47. at this point, the "prize" is the VP slot (nt)

[emilyg]

48. TY K&R

[JackORoses]

49. you know that Maine was a surprise to Hillary

it was at least supposed to be close.

it was not.

This was not expected at all.

[elixir]

52. Awesome! Thanks for the perspective. Denver here we come!!

[GarbagemanLB]

53. The Giuliani strategy! Awesome! Hope it works!

[yellowcanine]

54. Exactly. It is the "rope a dope" strategy. Hey it worked for Ali. Twice.

Of course it almost didn't work against Frazier. And maybe politics isn't much like boxing.

[ruggerson]

60. Giuliani had no delegates and had not won Super Tuesday

completely false analogy.

[usregimechange]

55. I think Ohio will be closer but I have to admit, you guys should do well in TX

and there be a lot of delegates there.

[Straight Shooter]

64. Thank you for some clear-eyed perspective.

And thank you, ruggerson, for another positive post. :)

[rodeodance]

63. ~ALL FIRED UP-FOR THE LADY~

[ElsewheresDaughter]

69. all Primary states and then comes PA another Primay state

[robbedvoter]

71. Reminder for Monday

[babylonsister]

73. Good luck with that; I'm in TX and am glad my vote might just count! nt