Edwards endorsement meetings: Is 'who went first' telling?

[CoffeeCat]

I'm just wondering if others are thinking as I am right now.

We heard that Edwards met with Hillary first, at his home on Thursday. Now, Obama meets
with Edwards at his home on Monday, tomorrow.

Is anyone else thinking that the person he meets with first, gets bad news?

I am thinking that you meet with the person you are not endorsing first, to let them
process the information and prepare yourself and your campaign for the hoopla that
will commence, after your opponent gets the endorsement. Then, the endorser gives the
non-endorsed candidate the opportunity to decide how the endorsement will be rolled out--as a
courtesy. As another courtesy, the endorser let the non-endorsed candidate chime in
with suggestions about what will be said, and how the non-endorsed candidate might
still be leveraged.

I say this because, I noticed that Ted Kennedy called the Clintons first, before he
called Obama and told him he was endorsing him. As a courtesy, he let the Clintons
know what would be happening first. Kennedy also appeared to allow the Clintons options:
Stay silent about it and let Ted announce or announce it themselves. The Clintons "leaked"
the information, and this kind helped for appearances, so they didn't look totally shafted
and "out of the loop".

I also noticed that in Ted Kennedy's speech, when he first began, he was reading a speech.
He said that "I will support either of these great candidates". I thought to myself, "That
was nice that he put that in and I'm sure that was something the Clintons asked Kennedy to
do and Kennedy agreed. That's generally not what you hear in a typical endorsement, but
we're in a really tight race, and this year is different.

Also, if you are the endorser---who is making the biggest endorsement of this race, bigger than
Kennedy--it would be nearly impossible to contain good news. The news of Edwards endorsing
a candidate, would be too big and too exciting to contain. It would leak. However, bad news
doesn't leak as fast. There would be no rush to get bad news out. All the more reason to
save the best for last.

I'm open to other thoughts. I'm not saying that this is how it went down, or that I know for
sure...yadda, yadda, yadda.

It's just what I'm thinking...

Anyone else have any thoughts on this????

[ursi]

1. Did Hillary Clinton or John Edwards initiate the first meeting on Thursday?

[jsamuel]

12. John Edwards initiated both meetings. The truth is that Clinton probably went first because she

could get down there on that day while Obama couldn't until Monday. It is probably that simple.

[jackson_dem]

2. Perhaps or it could just be scheduling

[JI7]

3. i disagree, i think he will endorse Hillary

unlikely any candidate during a busy time like now would take time out of their campaign to meet with someone just to hear that they wont get their endorsement. and this would be twice for Hillary from what i hear.

[Yael]

5. That makes no sense. If she isn't going to get the endorsement (if there is one)

she would be nuts not to meet with him to try to get it back.

[JI7]

7. that's why i think he is going to endorse her

it makes no sense to meet with him twice just for him to tell her he wont endorse her.

[Yael]

29. I think she is still trying to win the nod

She can't do that over the phone (like Bill calling Teddy).

Much more at stake here. Not from Edwards people as we have pretty much made our choices by now -- but in general publicity and momentum.

[DiamondJay]

43. not to mention the Clintons owe him a favor

As Edwards defended Bill during the impeachment, he is probably making a deal that if he endorses Hillary, she will put him on the bottom. it benefits edwards in that he knows that Obama will put a more experienced guy on the ticket, and that if on the Clinton ticket, it will probly win because she is much stronger a campaigner than Kerry, and he will be vice president being set up to run on his own in 2016.

[Pirate Smile]

13. I would be shocked if he endorsed her after literally saying on the campaign trail that he and Obama

were much closer position wise then he and Clinton. It would just go against everything he said while campaigning IMO.

[JI7]

15. i don't know for sure, but there are a few reasons i'm thinking this

and i just wouldn't be surprised if he did ended up endorsing Hillary even after all that he said during the campaign.

[Hieronymus]

31. I got that too .. there was a chemistry between Edwards and Obama.

[CoffeeCat]

34. There was a definite chemistry...

...between the Obama and Edwards supporters.

We were all like best friends during the run up to the caucuses.

Edwards canvassers would come to my door and I'd invite them in
and we'd chat for a half hour.

There was a great deal of reciprocity between the camps.

[CoffeeCat]

19. delete...

dup.

[CoffeeCat]

20. Really? Twice for Hillary...

...I hadn't heard that.

That's interesting.

I wonder when the rest of us, the ones out in the cheap seats, will find out?

I really miss John Edwards not being in this campaign.

Whoever garners his endorsement, I hope to hell that Edwards secured a very
meaningful position in their administration.

[JI7]

25. she has also been mentioning him more in her recent speeches

if she knew she wouldn't get the endorsement she probably wouldn't. so either she has the endorsement or he hasn't decided and she is looking to try to get it.

[Happyhippychick]

4. Did John Edwards steal this strategy from The Bachelor?

[K Gardner]

10. LOL.. that's what I thought of when I saw this post. Altho, the Bachelor has

been surprising us recently ! Maybe neither will get The Rose :-)

[CoffeeCat]

11. Barack Obama....will you accept this rose?

I was going to point out the similarities...but I didn't want anyone to know that I'd seen "The Bachelor" before!

LOL! :hi:

I was hooked on it for one season.

My husband never let me live that down...

"Barack Obama....do you accept this rose?"

"Oh John!! Yes!! Yes, I do!! Oh this is all so sudden!!"

[Happyhippychick]

14. I'm glad I'm not the only one who watches trashy tv.

[CoffeeCat]

17. I watched the one with the guy who was...

...a doctor who lived in Hawaii.

He ended up picking the right girl, so that was cool.

If you start watching from the beginning, it's hard not to watch until the end!

Is the Hawaii doctor still with that girl, do you know? :)

[Happyhippychick]

21. The only ones I watched were the first one and the one with Trista and Ryan.

I have watched every single season of Survivor, however. I truly love that show.

[Renew Deal]

22. Great minds think alike.

I was thinking the same thing. Who gets the final rose? :loveya:

[Happyhippychick]

27. If Edwards is giving it out, I'll take it. He's babe-a-licious.

[pamela]

53. lmao

:rofl:

I wish he would do what the last bachelor did. "Sorry, I don't love either of you."

[WinkyDink]

55. He just might.

[Ichingcarpenter]

6. Dylan:The line it is drawn

The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast

As the present now
Will later be past

The order is
Rapidly fadin'.

And the first one now
Will later be last

For the times they are a-changin'.

[MadBadger]

8. If this was a courteousy call, the Clinton's would have leaked it already.

So they could get ahead of the story.

[CoffeeCat]

16. ...but they wouldn't leak it before...

...Obama has their meeting with Edwards, right?

Obama has to hear what Edwards has to say, before anyone has the green light to
say anything.

[grantcart]

23. my guess is that if we wake up tomorrow and hear a string of

mid level Hillary endorsements it means that they were stockpiling them to counter and Edwards endorsement.

[Yael]

33. Her camp did just that though

They leaked a rumor a few days ago that Edwards was about to endorse Obama.

[loveangelc]

47. when? i didnt hear any rumors...

[Yael]

57. It was posted here on Friday

I read it as self serving. You know -- set people up for a fall and all that.

May be something to it now though. No idea!

[Whisp]

9. astute! ;)

[smalll]

18. Hmmm. they both meet with John at his home...

Think they chat in "John's Lounge?" Think Obama and Hillary, when they come through the front door, are handed a floor plan and a GPS device to help them find their way to that inner sanctum?

( One more time, for Auld Lang Syne: ;) )

[Mojorabbit]

30. Gwad, I hate to have

to mow that grass even with a tractor.

[BearSquirrel2]

32. Is that intentional ...

Is it intentional that his compound looks like a sack and a small penis?

[tammywammy]

37. Whomever finds John in the quickest time gets the endorsement

LOL.

Elizabeth uses the walkie talkie to let him know to start the clock. LOL.

[smalll]

45. Uh oh. Long legs could win that.

So Obama has the edge. On the other hand, Hillary, being a woman, would be more likely to ask for directions from any domestics she runs into on the way.

The race is on!

[tekisui]

24. Conventional thought would give the bad news first. Out of respect.

Of course, it's possible they both got bad news.

But then, what would the meetings be about?

[spooky3]

26. I think a phone call is different from a meeting

and that time is so valuable to both candidates, that neither would make a trip to NC unless they thought there were some chance of getting an endorsement and/or delegates from Edwards (not sure whether he can control the latter).

Some people thought Richardson would endorse Clinton after joining WJC for the Super Bowl. But it didn't happen.

Much as I like Edwards, I don't really think his endorsement is going to sway many voters. But obviously the candidates must disagree or have some other good reason for meeting with him--maybe they want to ensure that he doesn't endorse anyone. Personally, I would prefer that he not make an endorsement (I wish all elected Dems. would stay neutral in the primaries) but maybe he thinks that he can ensure more attention to his key issues (such as elimination of poverty) by bargaining with the candidates.

[Bongo Prophet]

35. The only "real" power he has right now is the 26 delegates, and he has to leverage those soon.

It is an interesting game of strategy, as John has to "spend" (or if you like, invest) those delegates when they are at their highest value.

What does he want?
Who knows at this point.

One of the reasons I wanted him to go to the convention (as he said repeatedly, up to the last days) was so that he would have a larger delegate count, and therefor more influence on the final platform.

What caused him to suspend?
Who knows, except those closest to whatever parties took place in that.


You are right that his endorsement might sway few voters.
He is in his element now, doing his own arbitration.
We have a corporate lawyer, a constitutional lawyer and a trial lawyer with a solid reord of negotiating large amounts for his clients.
Grisham could not write a better scene than this.

[spooky3]

44. interesting perspective - thanks

[jsamuel]

36. "I wish all elected Dems. would stay neutral in the primaries" - Edwards is not currently elected.

[spooky3]

39. that's true- I should have included "all former Pres. candidates"

in my comment as well.

Thanks.

[hfojvt]

38. I think it might

there are some Edwards supporters here who think Clinton is closer to Edwards than Obama is. It might make them think twice if Edwards himself disagrees. OTOH, it might make me think twice if Edwards disagrees with me about Obama being the more progressive of the two. Won't make any difference though, because I have already caucused on Fat Tuesday.

[Hawkowl]

28. Exactly right.

This is the protocol. Very similar to when the nominee is considering v.p. candidates. Or for a common man analogy, look no further than American Idol, or the Miss America contest.

[JVS]

40. Do John's 26 delegates come with the endorsement?

[raincity_calling]

41. From TPM

This was posted on Talking Points Memo

An Edwards aide confirms to me that John Edwards met privately with Hillary on Thursday to discuss the possibility of making an endorsement, and will meet with Obama tomorrow, as first reported by Mark Halperin.

The Edwards aide gave me a bunch more detail, including this: "There's a greater than 50% chance he will endorse." He also said that he's been talking to both on and off for some time, including since he dropped out.

The Edwards aide, who played a key campaign role, confirms that in his private discussion with Hillary, the former North Carolina Senator talked to her about similar concerns he raised with both candidates just before leaving the race. The aide says he talked about "who's going to carry on the mantle of fighting for the voiceless," and is trying to gauge which of the two "will sign their name in blood in order to make that commitment." A second source familiar with the meeting confirmed that it took place.

The Edwards aide cautioned against reading too much into the meetings, saying that he'd been talking to both of them before. "He's torn," the aide said "He has reservations about Hillary, which are pretty apparent."

On Obama, the aide says, Edwards worries "whether he's tough enough to be President of the United States. If you look at what Edwards ran on, which is not negotiating with the special interests, taking away their power, that's pretty different than the Obama model."

The Edwards aide added that Obama's lack of a health care plan with a "mandate" is a "tough hurdle for him to get over." He added, however, that Edwards is much more in line with Obama on other issues. (end of post)

I think Edwards is caught between a rock and a hard place. Obama's positions are really weak compared to Johns' and I think he knows that. On the other hand, John labeled Hillary as the status quo candidate, so it will be difficult for John to now endorse her unless he sets forth very detailed reasons for choosing Hillary over Obama.

As a strong Edwards supporter I too am torn, flip flopping back and forth between Hillary and Obama. One day I lean towards one and the next the other. Right now I find myself leaning toward Hillary. One reason is because her health care policy is stronger then Obamas. Another is because Jay Inslee, Congressman from WA and a promoter of alternative energy development (the Apollo Project) supports her, which indicates to me that she will be taking a strong position on developing alternative energy.

Although it sounds good to say we will work with Republicans (as Obama does)to move this country forward, what we all know from past experience is that the only way Dems work with the GOP is to capitulate to the GOP because the GOP refuse to work with the Dems. This leaves us with weak regulations or no regulations at all, continued support for the Iraq occupation, no healthcare, no alternative energy, etc.

[TacticalPeek]

50. Thanks for the info.

Here's the link:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/edwards_aide_john_having_priva.php

[CoffeeCat]

52. One thing that really sticks with me...

...is that reporter's account of what went on behind the scenes at the last
debate where all three of them were together.

Apparently, after the first commercial break, the reporter saw Edwards go over
to Obama and tell him to toughen up, get in there and be tougher.
Edwards seemed irritated with Obama--and telling him that he needed to show up, get in
the game and debate.

I'm wondering if Edward's reservations about Obama are more about his ability to
fight, get things done and even win this contest. I think Obama is learning and
growing as he campaigns. You can see a more astute campaigner and candidate
emerge in Obama--as each day passes.

Also, if Edwards has a problem with Obama wanting to bring corporations and negotiate
with them, I can't even imagine how Edwards must feel about Hillary--who has almost
no position on any of this. In fact, Obama and Edwards were the candidates who
didn't take PAC or Federal lobby money. Hillary wouldn't agree to that and she's
got corporate money all around her. She's part of the problem on that end.

After I heard about the comments that Edwards made to Obama at that debate, I knew that
Edwards would not endorse Obama until after Super Tuesday. Edwards wanted assurances
that Obama could do it himself and toughen up and go after Clinton---and be in a good
position after Super Tuesday. I think Obama proved himself and with these most
recent smash wins--perhaps Edwards figures that Obama has finally proven himself.

Just my 2 cents...

[TheWraith]

42. I think that the first meeting is the long shot, yes.

You want to meet/talk with whoever you're more likely to turn down first, since that way if the other party offers you what you need, you can say yes on the spot.

[jsamuel]

46. That assumes Edwards made Clinton and Obama's schedule for them.

I don't think that is true.

[TheWraith]

49. It's as simple as "why don't you come down tomorrow" rather than on Monday. NT

[thoughtcrime1984]

48. I think this is correct

They are both no doubt in the running, but I think the advantage is to Barack. If I'm wrong, so be it.

[Spiffarino]

51. I don't really care who he endorses, even though I like Obama

I want John Edwards - who was my first choice - to choose an endorsee based on what they will do about the things John campaigned on. If Hillary will make the stronger commitment to ensuring this country becomes more fair to the poor, the working class, the middle class, then he should endorse her. If Barack makes the stronger commitment, it should be him.

Either way, I'll be pleased if Edwards does it for the right reasons.

[Yael]

59. Hear hear!!

[Spiffarino]

61. And...

...it looks like he will!

At a Chapel Hill party yesterday for Edwards supporters, he gave no indication who he might endorse, or whether that endorsement is imminent. Some advisers are encouraging him not to endorse.

The former candidate is weighing a number of considerations before making his choice - including electability, and who will best promote his ideas.

There are policy considerations at play: there is a sense within the Edwards camp that Clinton's policies could be better for working class Americans. But Obama's anti-lobbyist proposals are more aligned with Edwards' politics.

In response to a CNN report that Elizabeth Edwards may favor Obama over Clinton, sources close to the Edwards family flatly deny that she favors one candidate over the other.

[mculator]

54. I think she gets it

on Universal Health Care

[cottonseed]

56. The first is always told to take 2 Aspirin, the second gets the endorsment.

nt

[calteacherguy]

58. Yes, that thought occured to me this afternoon.

I didn't post it. Don't want to jinx anything. ;-)

They have got to be talking about something.

[NastyRiffraff]

60. I think it's just a scheduling thing

Neither candidate has a lot of time to go to NC for a meeting, however important.

As to who he'll endorse, I have no idea. It depends on who's more committed to John's core issues. I think he's been watching both of them carefully, as well as speaking to them.