Perspective about Ohio and Texas

[CTLawGuy]

First, I am ignoring the effect of super delegates. I wholly believe they will not nominate someone who has lost the pledged delegate race, so I ignore them and concentrate on pledged delegates.

Based on looking at 4 news network websites' pledged delegate counts (MSNBC, CBS, CNN, and Fox (which was the worst)), taking the delegate count of those showing the most delegates allocated for each state, I have concluded that:

Obama has 1002 pledged delegates,
Clinton has 926 pledged delegates,
There are 49 delegates yet to be allocated,
Edwards has 26 pledged delegates.


That gives Obama a lead of 76.

Let's assume that Obama and Clinton tie the rest of the way to March 4th, leaving Obama's lead intact at 76. Let's also assume that the uncounted delegates split evenly (which will not be the case, as 27 of them are from CO, a state Obama won 2-1).

Let's see what happens if Clinton wins Texas and Ohio 60-40.

Ohio = 141 pledged delegates.
Clinton 60%, Obama 40%
141*60% = 84.6; 141*40% =56.4;
trans. to 85 Clinton and 56 Obama. Gives hillary a net of 29 delegates.

Texas = 193 pledged delegates.
Clinton 60%, Obama 40%
193*60% = 115.8; 193*40% = 77.2
trans. to 116 Clinton and 77 Obama. Gives Hillary a net of 39 delegates.

Total net for Hillary = 68 delegates.

Effect on race = Obama remains in the lead with 8 delegates.

Now lets assume she wins Texas and Ohio 2-1.

Ohio = 141 pledged delegates
Clinton 67%, Obama 33%
141*67% = 94.47; 141*33% = 46.53
trans. to: 94 delegates for Clinton and 47 for Obama. Net for Clinton = 47 delegates

Texas = 193 pledged delegates
Clinton 67%, Obama 33%
193*67% = 129.31; 193*33% = 63.69
trans. to: 129 delegates for Clinton and 64 for Obama. Net for Clinton = 65

Total net for Hillary = 102

Effect on race = Clinton leads by a mere 26 delegates.

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Mathematically it is clear she cannot count on OH and TX to save her. She cannot afford to keep losing these small states.

Remember my math assumes that uncounted delegates from WA (20 uncounted - Obama won 2-1), NM (1 uncounted - so close in the state it is probably going to Obama as Clinton currently leads by 1 delegate), CO (27 uncounted - Obama won 2-1), and AL (1 uncounted - he won by 15 points), all split evenly.

It also assumes that VA, MD, and DC split completely evenly. It assumes that HI and WI split evenly.

It assumes that congressional district quirkiness does not benefit Obama (or Clinton for that matter).

You can argue about super delegates actually making a difference etc., but I think the number of pledged delegates is the key. Again, I seriously doubt they would deny the pledged delegate winner the nomination.
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I want to caution Obama supporters that I am in no way saying we have won this nomination. We have to keep working hard and winning states. Having Clinton win TX and OH even 60-40 would be bad publicity for us and would give her momentum even if she couldn't seal the deal. Doing so would very much keep her alive. We must not rest.

The point of this is OH and TX cannot secure her the nomination and she cannot afford to keep losing small states, especially all in a row.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. Actually, once February is past she has lots of favorable territory.

TX and OH are only part of it. PA and PR and KY and WV off the top of my head...

Both campaigns' professionals expect it to be very close.

[CTLawGuy]

2. he also has

MS, WY, NC, OR, MT, and SD on his side.

Unsure about Guam or IN.

[CTLawGuy]

3. bump

NT