My analysis of the current delegate counts

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

Hillary seems to be banking on Ohio and Texas to put her back ahead of Obama. There are only a limited number of delegates available in OH and TX, and the reasonable expectation is that she will at best do as well in those two states as she did in her home state of New York: 60% to 40%.

There are 335 delegates available total between Ohio and Texas, so if she gets 60% that will give her 67 additional delegates over Obama.

Per CNN, Obama is currently in the lead by 62 pledged delegates. Assuming that the races between now and March 4 are tied up, and assuming Hillary does as well in both Ohio and Texas as she did in New York she will come out ahead by 5 pledged delegates.

I think it's likely that Obama will pick up a few delegates between now and March 4, and I also think it's increasingly less likely that Hillary will pick up 60% in Ohio and Texas (Texas may be more likely due to the Hispanic vote).

In other words, given my assumptions, it's pretty unlikely at this point that Hillary will win the pledged delegate count.

[onehandle]

1. They are, and will continue to be neck and neck.

The convention will be very interesting.

[thevoiceofreason]

2. The chances of a 60-40 Texas are slim

[GalleryGod]

7. Read those delegate rules as a background..straight out of the 1930's.

reference the results from Dukakis-Jackson in 1988, as a guide.

[papau]

3. I agree - at which point do super delegates go with red state elected - or blue preferred?

or do they do as I want - and get the candidates now - before any more primaries - to agree they will ask their delegates, elected and super, to go with the candidate that got more votes in the primaries, including Florida and Michigan?

[Redbear]

4. I think Obama may be about 100 ahead by time Texas and Ohio come up.

Pennsylvania on April 22nd may be Clinton's chance to re-take the lead.

[GalleryGod]

10. Hi,Red!

Eddie Rendell has a lot of power and organization in PA.

[yellowcanine]

11. Pennsylvania is a bit of a cipher but I think it will not break hard for Clinton.

Obama is going to do real well in the "Red State" parts of the state and he will rack up big numbers with African Americans in the cities. Clinton should do well in union households. But there are a lot of hunters in PA and they are among the ones (rural white male) who seem to be most anti-Clinton. The other wild card in the PA race is how many Republicans and Independents will choose to vote in the Democratic primary. PA is a closed primary but party affiliation can be declared up to 30 days before the primary. That is March 22 - an eternity considering that the Republican primary is all but decided. You can be sure if the race is still in flux after March 4 there will be considerable pressure put on moderate Republicans and Independents to declare themselves as Democrats and vote one way or the other. It is likely that Obama holds the edge there - certainly with Independents and moderate Republican males.

[elixir]

5. Unfortunately, I believe it will come down to FL and MI. As distasteful as we all know that will be.

[onehandle]

6. Yep. They will be seated.

Bloodbath City, USA.

[GalleryGod]

8. IMHEO

that will be avoided.

[catagory5]

9. Not quite right, but close

Actually she is banking on Ohio, Texas and PENN That total is =577. That is a little more accurate. Then there is the Supers that go along with those states. She could very well take OH and TX at a 60 to 40 clip and PENN at 70 to 30

[yellowcanine]

12. No way will Clinton take PA 70 -30. Best she can hope for is a narrow win, imo.

And it could very well go hard the other way. See my analysis above. I think Ohio is more like PA as well. IMO her only shot for a big win (Obama under 40%) is Texas with a big Hispanic turnout. But Texas is not California (there was a lot of absentee and early voting there that probably helped Clinton). For one thing it is a red state and Obama has been pounding Clinton in red states. So I think Obama does better than 40% in Texas as well. I think Hillary's only chance at this point is to hold onto a big majority of super delegates and also get Michigan and Florida seated according to the early primaries there. Both possibilities are long shots imo. I think she at best gets a narrow majority of super delegates and gets Florida seated and it is doubtful that is enough. If it gets to a brokered convention I think the candidate with the majority of committed delegates going in will win and I think that will be Obama.

[yellowcanine]

13. IMO the national party and the state parties will "work something out" before the convention.

It is in everybody's (well, Democrats) best interest that they do so, including Clinton's, though her supporters may not think so. Likely there will be some sort of caucus in each state to allocate delegates, probably with some provision to partially recognize the results of the Jan. primaries.