Look at this map.....McCain has won and turned all our blue states RED

[ElsewheresDaughter]

see what he has done....will he be the next president!:sarcasm:

this is what the Republican's map looks like in their PRIMARY cycle





just as our map is all blue during a PRIMARY cycle.



WHAT it really IS and WHAT IT WILL be in the GENERAL ELECTION



SO PLEASE TELL ME ABOUT ALL THOSE RED STATES THAT OBAMA HAS TURNED BLUE AGAIN.

All I keep hearing is that "OMG Obama has won in ALL "RED" states.....sorry but, neither Clinton nor Obama will turn those red states blue in November.

and that's just a fact

I know most of you know this....this was not meant for you

A NIXON - KENEDY MAP....the political map does NOT ever change....get it?

:

[jlake]

1. Yeah. I can't believe people don't know the difference between

the primary and GE - as your maps demonstrate for those who can't figure it out.
A Democrat has to win every state and A Republican has to win every state during the primary.

[The_Casual_Observer]

2. Obama wins in places that will be won by McCain. McCain will

probably take California, Florida & Ohio if Obama runs.

[Frances]

11. If Obama chooses someone who appeals to Latinos and

Asians, I think he will take CA over McCain. But, I have to admit, I thought Obama would win the primary.

[The_Casual_Observer]

14. Who? It won't matter.

[MidwestTransplant]

25. McCain is NOT taking California. He won't even campaign there.

[ingac70]

15. California?

Bullshit!

[Renew Deal]

22. Yes, states like Washington, Connecticut, Maine, Illinois.

:shrug:

[ginnyinWI]

31. Dark blue CA will turn red? Sounds incredible!

Do you have any statistics to back that up?

I thought the independents preferred Obama to McCain. Where does McCain find enough votes in CA to capture the state? Even the Republicans don't like him that much and many might not bother to vote. And some are saying they will vote for Obama because they feel the country needs a change.

[shimmergal]

53. How did Schwartznegger win the

California statehouse? I suspect his appeal to Californians is much like McCain's.

[CPschem]

3. Pure speculation.

John Kerry's performance 4 years ago is not a predictor of results this November. Primary turnout compared with 4 years ago indicates that things are very different.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

17. okay .bookmarking this thread so that come Nov ..if you're still here on DU ...I"ll remember you

[CPschem]

55. I've been here since '03.

Not going anywhere, but thanks for your concern (and optimism come november).

[Frances]

4. Very interesting map

I grew up in Alabama, and the blue belt is what we used to call the black belt. The black belt had very good soil for growing cotton and that's where the most AFrican Americans were because they were needed for picking cotton.

I noticed the blue belt in Arkansas was next to the Mississippi River. Not sure why that is.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

5. I know you don't believe that those maps are static

Most of those red counties are actually purple. A candidate like Obama, who appeals to both liberals and independents, will change a lot of those purple counties blue. A crappy repub candidate like McCain will help either Obama or Clinton turn a lot of that map blue.

The last 2 general elections are not a good model for the political leanings in this country.

[UALRBSofL]

21. With Huckabee on his ticket

Much of the southern states will vote for that ticket due to his evangelical christian coalition ties and the fact he's a BAPTIST PREACHER. McCain will have a good chance in florida. First with the delegate mess and the fact McCain is a veteran. He did his pilot training in my town. Florida is very pro-military. We have many bases here.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

29. I thought Huckabee said he wasn't interested in VP?

Sorry, I don't have a link, but I read that somewhere on DU yesterday.

If Obama is elected, the black vote in a lot of those southern states may help tip them towards the Democrats. I agree that Florida will be a tough one.

[Dhalgren]

45. Southern blacks vote Democratic anyway. A black man on the ticket

might cause a greater black voter turnout, but it could also cause a greater white bigot turnout, too. Obama won't carry any Southern states in the general if he is the candidate. Sorry, Georgia will probably come closest to going blue in November, and most of the folks I know in Georgia are saying they think it will go red...

[Clark2008]

48. You're forgetting Virginia

He's as likely as any Democrat to turn Virginia blue.

BTW, the biggest red area is the mid-West, not the South. People need to be reminded of that. The South is not the most conservative area by far.

[Dhalgren]

54. It is the most racist. And that is what we are talking about.

Screw "conservatism". Conservatives are no more powerful in the Republican party than progressives are in the Democratic Party.

I am talking hard-core racism, here. The deep south (I had not even considered Virginia) votes Republican because of racism. It has nothing to do with taxes, or Big Government (except when that is being used as code for "affirmative action"), or any of the other "conservative" issues; it is about race - beginning, middle, end - race...

Democrats love (N-word here); Republicans hate (N-word here) - that. is. it.

[Clark2008]

49. You're forgetting Virginia

He's as likely as any Democrat to turn Virginia blue.

BTW, the biggest red area is the mid-West, not the South. People need to be reminded of that. The South is not the most conservative area by far.

[RaleighNCDUer]

56. OTOH, Hillary on the ticket would turn out the same bigots against

her without turning out the black vote for the Democrats. Obama has a far better chance of flipping southern red states than Hillary does, and he has proven he can pull the white vote in the mid-west.

[Dhalgren]

59. No, he has shown he can get the white Democratic vote - not

"pull the white vote" in the mid-west. You may be right that Clinton would have as hard a time with the white racists in the south as Obama will, that's entirely possible. We may be looking at what was considered an impossibility only a few months ago - a Republican win in November...

[goldcanyonaz]

6. Obama will win all 50 states!!!

[Frances]

20. It is good to be a positive thinker,

but you should also be realistic.

I remember how excited we young, anti-war people were when McGovern won the Democratic primary and then ran against Tricky Dick. McGovern carried two states, as I remember. I have never been so shocked in my life.

So--however hard you are working for Obama now, remember that the real battle hasn't even begun!

[TheUniverse]

7. That map is ultra manipulative.

Yes when looking at the map of county by county it looks like republicans dominate this country. Thats because republicans generally win large rural counties while Democrats win small but very populous urban counties, and it will work out the democrats will win, but the county map will look very red. But people matter, not county maps.

[ginnyinWI]

35. exactly. That third map is really misleading.

You have to look at population. Popular vote determines which way the state's electors will vote.

[Happyhippychick]

8. The "fact" is that twice as many Dems are turning out to vote as Reps.

Keep your eyes on the big picture, you're comparing apples and oranges when you compare primary results between Dems and Reps.

[Occam Bandage]

9. Neither Clinton nor Obama will turn red states blue? Why are we even holding primaries then?

If we can't possibly do better than in '04 or '00, we might as well just give up now.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

23. oy

[insanity]

10. Consider that democratic turnout eclipses republican turnout

And many of those states have open primaries (which without double-checking, believe Obama has won a plurality). I understand how a primary works, but I'm not convinced that either candidate would lose the general.
Also, population density... think about it.

[ingac70]

12. He only needs to turn a couple of states blue...

Hill definitely can't do that.

[Bad Thoughts]

13. Defeatism!

The goal is to go to all the states, to turn them blue. Otherwise, we surrender to the trend of making the country more and more Republican.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

30. NO not "defeatism"....it's called REALITY darl'in!

[papau]

True - in Nov it's FL, MI, MO,PA, and Ohio that will decide the election

[UALRBSofL]

46. Someone posted a graph yesterday

Showing Hillary getting the republican womens crossover vote whereas Obama got the republican mens crossover vote. Sorry I didn't get the link. What it shows me is she is electable. We don't know how Obama will do with the women if he is elected. Even with the democratic womens vote he's getting some but Hillary is getting the majority of those.

[Renew Deal]

16. That's the Kerry map from 2004.

That's where Bush ran in every state and we ran in 17 states. Between Dean, the 50 State Strategery, Obama's organizational skills, and crossover appeal, Obama is position to take a massive popular vote in his favor and flip some states.

Now answer me this. Which red states is Hillary going to flip?

[ElsewheresDaughter]

24. how about a Nixon - Kenedy map....the map does NOT change ever...get it?

[Occam Bandage]

28. It doesn't?

[ElsewheresDaughter]

32. Thank you .....except with a Clinton!

[Occam Bandage]

34. Somehow, I don't think the cause of '92 and '96 was the last name of the Dem nominee.

[stahbrett]

36. That Clinton isn't running, but there is still hope!

Another young Democrat is running, on a message of hope, with the ability to attract independents and Republicans.

[stahbrett]

33. There you go again...

Throwing out facts like that!!! Who do you think you are? Don't you know that it's impossible for Obama to win in any state that didn't vote for Kerry or Gore??? ;)

[Renew Deal]

42. Actually she's lieing again.

The map she posted was not the Nixon-Kennedy map.

[Thirtieschild]

44. I suspect Georgia went blue in 1992 because of Zell

He was governor then, generally well-thought of, made the nominating speech for Clinton and Georgia went blue. Can't imagine it ever happening again. Sigh.

[NoPasaran]

37. I don't know where that map came from but it's wrong!

Note: This map shows states that voted D in 1960 as RED and R as BLUE



So... things do change.

[Renew Deal]

40. The map you posted is the 2004 map

That's the 2004 Kerry-Bush map. Are you intentionally trying to misinform? So what red states is Hillary going to flip. I'm waiting.


The 1960 Kennedy-Nixon map is here.

[Tom Rinaldo]

57. Kick even though this wasn't the Nixon - Kennedy Map n/t

[cali]

18. You do realize that dem turnout has been far, far, far greater

than repuke turnout, right? Like 73% more people have participated in dem contests. And that was before Maine. Now, that certainly doesn't mean that we'll win most of the red states, but it could very well help us in states like NM, VA, CO and Iowa. Oh, and the majority of indies have participated in dem primaries and contests rather than repuke ones. Will they all vote dem in November? No, but enough of them very well could.

[papau]

38. Massive Maine Caucus turnout is only 10% of 2004 vote

[cali]

50. huh? I take it you mean 10% of the general election vote

so what are you saying? Are you saying that everyone who voted in the GE in Maine in 2004 was a dem? Are you saying that the turnout in the primary whichc was well over twice the turnout in 2004, is completely meaningless? What's your point?

[ElsewheresDaughter]

39. and you do know that most of that turn out is due to the Bush* factor

[cali]

51. no. i don't know that. and neither do you.

there's really know way to know what those who turned out were thinking.

[papau]

41. Massive Maine Caucus turnout is only 10% of 2004 Dem only vote

[Qanisqineq]

19. LOL! Thank you

I was getting annoyed by people saying that. It's great that more democrats are showing up at the primary than republicans in some red states. This does not mean that those red states will turn blue in November.

North Dakota, for example: During the primary, about 18,000 democrats voted and maybe 10,000 republicans voted (IIRC) -- that's fantastic! It's my home state, as much as I love it and as many democrats as I know there, I would fall over dead if it turned blue in November.

[robbedvoter]

26. Ah, but you underestimate his secret weapon:

[oasis]

27. McCain will seek to reinstate the draft . He'll need an army to occupy Iran.

:patriot:Obamaists from the "blue states of America" will fight alongside rightwing whackos from the "red states of America". Not exactly what Obama had in mind when Oprah talked him into running for president.

[Thirtieschild]

43. The blue/red county map is also an urban/rural map

If you know your geography, it's easy to spot Austin, and El Paso, and Charlotte, and Atlanta, etc. etc. etc.

[1awake]

47. ....

[Perky]

52. Here is the thing you are not considering

An enthusiasm gap with McCain among two wings of the GOP

Obama's change mantra which like it or not has huge enthusiam behing it in the middle of the electorate

Obama's ability to raise money and his organization prowess

and enthusiasm in the AA community which translate into very large nubers in the south.

On that basis I think three southern states are in play. Virginia, Lousiana and south Carolina.



They would not be in play with any another candidate.

[pampango]

58. Another "Neither will turn the Red - Blue and both will keep the Blue".

As with all elections it will probably come down to the swing states.

It just occurred to me, maybe we are due one of those 48 - 2 sweeps that the Republicans have had a few of. The Repubs hae certainly run the country into the ground which you would think would be a prerequisite for such a sweep. The last one for us was what - 1964?

(I realize that our nomination process to date doesn't exactly lend one to such optimistic thinking.) ;)