Clintons' Ohio Firewall Part II.

[Perky]

I have been looking at the delegate math and it seems to me that given the projections for the rest of the month and given the primary schedule after Ohio, Th Clinton strtategy has to rely on three things:


Large Obama size wins in Ohio and to a lesser extent Texas.

This not only is needed to close the pledged delegate gap but also to gain momentum and money for the rest of the calendar. A draw or a split decision with Texas will not do it...She has to win convincinly

after Ohio/Texas is Vermont, Wyoming Cauces and Mississipi all of which, while small, favor Obama.

Win Big in PA

I honestly think seh has a priblem here. It is a union state but there is also a very powerful AA voting bloc. She would have to really trounce Obama in Ohio to have a shot in PA.

After PA the schedule goes back to favoring Obama slightly and is proabbly a best a wash for Clinton

Indiana
North Carolina
West Virginia
Kentucky
Oregon
Puerto Rico
Montana
South Dakota

If she is lagging in overall delegates at theat point her only hope is SUper delegates, Which brings be back to Ohio, If Obama ties or beats he in OHIO.. it is going to be hard for her to make the more electablility argument to Super delegates who are sitting on the fence.

If she is still down by 100 delegates or so... her only option is going to be playing the Michigan and Florida card

I am betting there ill be condiserable pressure on her not to do that because she doe not have the delegates to do it.

So again not only is Ohio her firewall. it is the the fulcrum of her entire strategy. She has to win big there ans he is going to have no momentum going in even though she has insturuitional advantages.

[mrgorth]

1. OH and PA

are problems for us. I'm worried about them. It's the machine.

[madrchsod]

2. ohio--the one of the rust belt states

that bill sold out during the 90`s. is she going to admit it was a huge mistake for the mexican farmers and the american workers? i certainly won`t hold my breathe on her doing that. obama should point out the fact that bill did nothing to stop this.

or did i miss where she`s no longer running on her years of experience?

[lurky]

4. I've got family in Cleveland.

NAFTA is a dirty word there. Obama just has to remind them of that, IMO.

[geiger]

8. another good point

I haven't heard of any Ohio labor endorsements, have you? They effectively shut out the best Ohio congressional candidate last cycle because of their unwillingness to forgive pro-NAFTA votes.

[Yael]

9. We have massive boots on the ground in PA

Once Edwards dropped and I started looking at the local races and candidates -- I was blown away by the Obama organization here.

I went to his camp because I believe he can get the big MO in November and hopefully with that, we can unseat a career (R) in the house with the dem who is challenging him.

:thumbsup:

[Freetospeak]

11. Obama can win in OH

I am thinking he will...NAFTA!

[Arugula Latte]

3. Oregon will go Obama heavily -- I'm now virtually convinced of it.

But that's in May ... :(

[UALRBSofL]

5. Florida isn't over yet

Florida is her base. She carry's the older voters and they rule in florida. If people knew Hillary could be the nominee if Florida is counted but DNC disallows the delegates to be seated I'm sure it will blow up into a litigation come convention. Just my opinion.

[thevoiceofreason]

10. She'll lose that litigation

The US Supremes have said time and time again that a primary is up to the party.

[Perky]

12. yes there it is.

[truedelphi]

21. The Supremes do what they wanna do

There were adequate reasons against the stance they took in Gore Vs Florida.The stance they took lacked consistency and credibility, but then they are the Supremes - we're not.

So it all will come down to, if Supreme litigation is involved, does the Republican ticket want a Hillary ticket?

I'd rather face her than Obama. Even given that there is bigotry etc alive and kicking here in the USA.

[geiger]

6. The governor's budget probs and simultaneous HRC endorsement

bode ill for her campaign. At best, it's bad timing. You've also got the Governor and a black Congressmwoman endorsing opposite of the State black caucus. The Governor is falling back on the lottery "to balance the budget," when the electorate just defeated a gambling initiative in the last statewide contest. There's a maverick (D) AG running around suing people and an incompetent (D)SOS that's ordered local boards of elections to revert to antiquated voting technology, another disaster in the making. The dynamics are all wrong. Plus, don't tell Ohioans how to vote; they don't like it. The "powers that be" would just be better off to keep their mouths shut.

[susankh4]

18. I don't think so....

Clinton will have strong support in most of SE Ohio. Nafta or no, the fact is they were much better off in the 90s than they are today.

The Unions here are definitely leaning Clinton. AFL/CIO, AFSCME, Teachers.... Don't know about Teamsters?

[JVS]

19. SE Ohio? There's nothing there.

NE ans SW is where the people are

[Unsane]

7. I think you mean "farewell"

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

13. If she pushes too hard on MI and FL, it will be the end of her politically

Nobody wants a President who won by dirty tricks.

[rcsl1998]

14. The Clinton Strategy is "Large Size Obama Wins" ???

"In Ohio and to a lesser extent Texas" ???

[Big Blue Marble]

15. Maybe it was a Freudian slip?

:shrug:

I like the sound of it.:)

[XemaSab]

17. I think the OP meant "wins of the magnitude that Obama has been getting"

Either that or it's a new serving size at Starbucks. :shrug:

[Perky]

20. I was supposed to be "large Obama-sized wins... LOL

[madmom]

16. In the part of Ohio I live in they'll vote for neither, repug all the way, lucky me!

[southern_dem]

23. ...

Cincinnati suburbs?

[JVS]

24. Hey, I've been out to that town!

Was there for a wedding back in Sept. 2001

[kristopher]

22. Sounds a lot like Guliani's Florida strategy