Obama Down 30 Points, And In Deep Trouble

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Mon Feb-11-08 12:06 PM
Original message

Obama Down 30 Points, And In Deep Trouble

Edited on Mon Feb-11-08 12:36 PM by FLDem5

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/11/91158/5807/161/454432

Obama Down 30 Points, And In Deep Trouble

by LarsThorwald
Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 10:12:05 AM EST

I am a supporter of Sen. Obama over Sen. Clinton , but I am alarmed by the cocky attitude being displayed by my fellow Obama supporters.

After the wins in Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska, Maine and the Virgin Islands there has been a dramatic uptick in strutting and an unsettling number of comments that look beyond the primary battles in the days and weeks ahead to what comes after Obama is nominated ("Who will he choose as VP?" "Dude, he is so going to win the primary in Ohio in 2012" "Where do I get my tickets for the inaugural ball? Should I call campaign headquarters directly, or...?").

This is disconcerting, and it is disconcerting the hell out of me.

Follow me over the fold for the rousing, good old-fashioned woodshedding you so richly deserve.

LarsThorwald's diary :: ::
Brief autobiographical digression: I am a litigator by profession and calling. I fight battles every day, and not always with my wife, who inevitably wins.

I have learned through very hard experiences that no battle is won by sitting on your lead, or thinking you are winning, or thinking you have the thing wrapped up. I have seen attorneys on the other side underestimate me because I am young, or because I will appear at early meetings purposefully disheveled (tie askance, papers humorously unorganized and out of order), or because they looked me up and know I went (WARNING: please ask your children to leave the room at this time) to a state school.

These are opposing counsel over whose charred bodies I usually stand at the end of a case, tie straightened, papers neatly collated, a victory in my pocket and in the proceedings of record.

Because I trained under people who taught me that the only way to succeed is three-fold: preparation, preparation, preparation. I also learned after getting my wee head dashed against the rocks of experience that the very last thing you do is underestimate your opponent (no matter how much you like him or her, no matter how reasonable and civil your exchanges are), because that is when you lose.

To quote Quentin Tarantino, auteur, in Pulp Fiction: "That's how you're gonna beat 'em, Butch. They keep underestimating you." These words are true.

Back to the main: I watched with avid interest the efforts of the Clintons in 1992, and I observed as a student of politics their moves throughout the rough days of the early 1990s and the dark days of the later 1990s. The paramount lesson taught by the Clintons is that you do not underestimate the Clintons. They are wicked smart, resourceful, tenacious, dogged, terrier-like in intensity, indefatigable, resilient, tough, and they can be, at times, ruthless. Utterly without ruth.

If you disbelieve me, I can point to a cemetary lined in neat little rows with headstones planted squarely over the political careers of those who thought otherwise.

I know these things, and yet I see the crowing. The strutting. The we-got-em-beat-boy-howdy posts here, covering this site like a sea of orange peacockery. Look at my shiny, victorious feathers. See how they awe.

Take heed, friends:

Senator Obama has won nothing. You have won nothing. We have won nothing.

I see the state results roll in, and where people see winning states I see points of vulnerability because there are those in which Sen. Obama has not prevailed. Where people tout delegate totals, I see an ocean of danger, an ocean covered with lit oil waiting to burn my candidate in a fiery bath of defeat. Where people abacus popular votes in an effort to show how much he is ahead, I see votes going the other way that simply mean that they--we--are sitting around on our asses, not working, not trying, not preparing enough.

Where people see strength in organization, I see laziness. Every step that does not advance the ball toward vistory is a misstep, even if it is not a misstep.

I saw the polls in the days and weeks leading up to that that hard day in November 2004. "The polls show Kerry ahead in Wisconsin!" "Kerry looks like he will win it by three points!" "The exit polls say Kerry has it! w00t!" "Where do I get my tickets to the inaugural ball? Do I call the campaign directly, or...?"

Dolts. Stupid, unprepared, inactive dolts we were. Parsing out polls in a masturbatory love-fest while the never-to-be-underestimated Republicans eked out a win by doing the hard work. We awoke from our sticky days of self-love and he-might-just-pull-it-out fantastic voyages to find them holding the election and us holding the bag. And we know exactly what that got us.

So Sen. Clinton has had some small money woes, and has not won in a few states, and has had a bit of a staff shakeup. And I guess that all means that Obama is winning. Well I say hogwash and horsesh*t to all that.

Obama is not winning, you fool.

Obama is not even close to winning. He is 800 delegates behind. He is 30 points down in the polls. He is awash in shiftless volunteers with IQs of 80 and facing empty coffers and the phonelines are down and help isn't coming.

That is how you must view this, brothers and sisters. That is how you stay hungry. This is how you stay focused.

Tomorrow the good citizens of the State of Maryland, the District of Columbia, and the Commonwealth of Virginia are going to go out and vote.

And not one single one of them is going to vote for Obama. Not one. Not without you.

Soon the citizens of the State of Ohio and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Republic of Texas are going to go out and vote. And you can be damned sure that none of them are going to vote for Sen. Obama. Not by a mile.

Unless you help. Unless you phonebank. Unless you call a friend or a neighbor or a sworn enemy and ask them to lend their support and their vote. Not until you hit the bricks and knock on a few doors. Not until you donate time and money and get others to do so.

Preparation, preparation, preparation.

Money goes here.

Your time goes here or here or here or here or here.[br />
And here or here or here.

Focus on the polls and the horserace and the prettiness of your feathers at your own expense.

We are losing, and losing badly.

We have work to do.

Get off your asses. Fight.

Fight.

You heard the man, click a link and GET TO WORK!

(Mods and Admin - I have permission from the diarist to post this entire Diary - do I need to forward you the official permission?)