So much comes down to TX and OH...

[Sulawesi]

I would like to hear peoples thoughts on whether Obama has a chance in either, what kind of delegate bump HRC will get, and whether it can overcome the pledged delegates Obama keeps accumulating up to that point. It seems to me that if things stay static, that the accumulated lead Obama gets in these weeks are not enough, and HRC may have more pledged delegates when you add TX, OH, and then PA. Obama needs to make inroads, and probably will...

Has anything been posted up on the numbers he needs to emerge from March 4 with a lead in the pledged delegates?

[GodlessBiker]

1. I believe he already has a lead in the pledged (non-super) delegates.

[Egnever]

4. He does

[Sulawesi]

8. Right now he does, but HRC could string together some wins in big states if she can hold on...

[Egnever]

9. Yup

Hillary isnt done yet.

[NightWatcher]

2. Call me crazy, but I dont trust a 'safe' election to Texas

Arent there some residual "Bushes" floating around Texas that could monkey with the results?

[RL3AO]

3. If Obama wins Wisconsin,

what will 9 straight wins do to the polls?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

5. Obama's already got a good and growing lead in delegates.

In fact, that lead is large enough to overcome the superdelegates, he's just got narrow lead in total delegates- pledged and known superdelegates.

Clinton wouldn't just have to win TX and OH, she'd have to win substantially.

[Dawgs]

6. Why would you assume that Obama won't do well in those states?

He's been able to come back in almost every state where he's had time to campaign. He'll have a few weeks to campaign in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

I think he'll do fine.

[Sulawesi]

7. I know he has a lead now, and it is growing, but there are a lot...

of delegates up for grabs in TX, OH, and PA, and these states have a high fraction of Hispanic or blue collar voters...

So he needs to pad his lead to withstand these later HRC wins, or make inroads...

[liberal N proud]

10. My vote might be important?

COOL!

I was afraid it would all be decided by Ohio.

Too bad it isn't for the candidate I really wanted to vote for.

Now all I need to do is decide how I will use my vote...


Do I vote for Hillary because I would love to see all those Hillary haters eat it when she wins?

Do I vote for Obama because he is young and young means change?


hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....

I could just vote for Edwards, his name is still on the ballot, and let that fall where it may. But that maybe isn't the responsible thing to do.

I still can't make up my mind since it is down to two. I like both of them; I would love to see either or both in the White House. Real change in America a Black man and or a woman. That is something to tell your great grandkids.


Whatever I decide to do, I will remain neutral on this forum, sticking up for either candidate should I feel what is posted is wrong or slanderous. I will not divulge my choice until I have voted, if at all.

[geek tragedy]

14. An Obama win in OH ends the race.

Pretty much means he's the nominee, Clinton drops out, and the party starts coming together.

[quantass]

11. A Canadian's Perspective on Your Election...

I'm Canadian so sadly i cannot participate in this very fascinating election of yours but i have been keeping abreast with the happenings and from what i gather Obama is sure to lengthen his lead all through February but in March his momentum might put a bit of a strain on what most are considering a likely Clinton win in TX, OH, and PA. However, just having the win for Clinton doesnt mean she will capture the lead. Recall that she must not only win but put on a sizeable lead in those potential victories if she is to be able to erase the growing deficit that Obama is piling on her each contest. So if she get 51/49 in TX then she in ways has still lost, same goes with the other 2 big states. Most are showing that it is OH that is the uncertainty for her (but has leant more in her favor).

One thing is for certain, if Hilary doesnt win big (not this 51/49 pooh-pooh) in TX, OH and PA then she is likely going to lose it all from the fact that the total delegates (with Supers included) will reveal Obama is still larger (maybe not by much, but still enough to secure the nomination). That is, unless those supers that were considered in the equatin change their minds prior to the convention in August.

[NoBorders]

12. Welcome to DU! Good analysis

That's what I was about to say.

So much depends upon *how big* her wins are in TX, OH, PA, assuming she does win them, which I believe she will, but probably not by huge margins.

[kwyjibo]

13. My friends and I are voting for Obama in Texas.

I haven't heard anyone say they're voting for Hillary.

And my mom likes Huckabee. sigh.

[texas_indy]

16. same here in the DFW metroplex, seems to be more for Obama..

but I'm sure there must be some around here for Hillary.

Very funny to hear people act like Texas could be a big win for Hillary. Texas is an open primary and that means big problems for Hillary.

Be prepared. Texas is going in the Obama column.

GOBAMA!!!!

[ooga booga]

17. Don't assume that Hillary wins Texas

I think that few places in these United States are more dead set against Hillary Clinton than our own beloved Lone Star State. Barak Obama, on the other hand, seems to strike a chord in places that aren't normally friendly to Democrats. I think he's likely to get a boost in Texas as well. As I heard Barak himself explain to Steve Kroft of 60 Minutes, people are saying that they're trying to decide whether to vote for McCain or Obama. For a lot of people, the choice is already framed that way, and I think a great many Texans are already focused on just those two.

As others have mentioned, we have a primary AND a caucus in Texas. Barak Obama will draw out voters to the primary, but I think he'll also draw a lot of those voters to show up for the precinct conventions after the polls close. I think he'll really shine at those precinct conventions.

[TexasObserver]

15. The delegate counting is complicated in Texas, and won't be complete until June

I'll summarize a bunch of legalese and try to condense it to this:

228 delegates:

126 pledged delegates decided by the primary on March 4th, according to State Senate districts
35 superdelegates
67 more pledged delegates picked at the state convention in June, by apportionment, 15% viability rule

[hogwyld]

18. Has anyone here considered how these equations change

should Hillary win in Wisconsin? I read somewhere that the campaign is putting a lot of money and resources into Wisconsin to stem the bleeding. It ain't over yet it seems...